NBA MVP Odds Movement Sees Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama Gain Momentum

By Kody Malstrom | Apr 13, 2026, 10:28am

With the 2025-26 NBA season entering the final weeks of play, the MVP race is still closely contested, in part because of how the 65-game rule might impact top candidates.

The rule, which has been in place since 2023, would disqualify any player from postseason awards who fail to log the requisite playing time of 65 regular season games. Due to injuries and other factors, that leaves three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, reigning MVP Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembanyama in danger of being left off the ballots this April.

Gilgeous-Alexander remains the odds-on favorite, but with Cade Cunningham disqualified due to injury and Jaylen Brown losing ground due in part to the return of Jayson Tatum, new contenders have entered the fray.

Below, we take a look at the updated NBA MVP odds market and discuss the implications if any of the lead candidates were to miss more time.

Contents

2025-26 NBA MVP Odds

NBA MVP Candidates

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

The reigning MVP has improved across the board in terms of efficiency this season even if his scoring average is down a tick to 31.5 PPG. Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the league in free throws for a third straight season and shooting 55% from the floor with 60 games under his belt. He’s leading the Thunder on a 12-game win streak and only needs to play 20-plus minutes in five of their nine remaining games to remain eligible.

Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers

A perennial preseason favorite to win MVP, Doncic has never come particularly close. This might be his highest finish after a torrid stretch in March has him running away with another scoring title (at 33.4 PPG) while carrying the Lakers to an 11-2 record. Doncic has vaulted from odds as long as 50 or 100 to 1, to the second favorite behind SGA at +1000 per DraftKings Sportsbook. With 60 games played as of March 25, he should be eligible for all postseason awards.

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

Wemby’s eligibility for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year is a bit foggier than other stars. He’s missed 15 games and played under 20 minutes in one of his 45 appearances. The 65-game rule includes a maximum of two games played between 15-20 minutes, so he can only miss two more contests and must log at least 20 minutes in all of his appearances.

The 7-foot-5 center is running away with the first of what might be several Defensive Player of the Year awards with -1800 odds in that category and he’s third in the MVP race per oddsmakers. The Spurs are almost locked into second place in the Western Conference with the third-best defensive rating (110.4) in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

The three-time MVP can only miss one more game before he becomes ineligible for MVP and All-NBA consideration, which would certainly ruffle some feathers. Jokic is having another stalwart offensive season, but his fall from second position in the MVP race to fourth is likely due to Denver’s porous defense and his poor performance on that end in recent weeks. Jokic has finished first or second in MVP voting in five consecutive seasons, but is currently sporting the highest turnover rate (15.7%) and lowest defensive win shares (3.0) average in his career.

Photo Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.