The Boston Celtics head into the new year without Al Horford and Kyrie Irving. They replaced the two with Kemba Walker and Enes Kanter. Jayson Tatum is expected to make a small jump in production and usage this season, but what does that exactly mean for fantasy? The minutes have been there since being drafted by Boston back before the 2017-18 season. He posted 13-5-1 in his rookie season, and then 15-6-2 last season. Tatum has been a rather efficient scorer, shooting 46% from the field and 40% from three in his career. He also has shot 84% from the line. Still just 21 years old, Tatum is in a good spot to emerge as a premium scorer, and also a fine fantasy player. The Celtics have been somewhat limited in terms of upside outside of Irving the last two seasons, and this has a lot to do with Boston having a deep team.
Coming into year three, projections expect Tatum to make a jump. This growth falls in line with what he did from year one to year two. The news that he has been improving more down low and using his body is something that will add to his versatility. We didn’t quite see the consistency in that department. Boston should have a somewhat similar usage to last season around this group, but Tatum should be second to Walker when it comes to usage.
Jayson Tatum Projected Fantasy Stats
Jayson Tatum has been working on drawing and playing through contact this summer. Intent is to increase his scoring by being stronger with the ball and drawing more free throws. It’s usually the last part to come for a young scorer, but Tatum is on his way with adding that skill.
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) August 17, 2019
Jayson Tatum’s fantasy upside isn’t quite high as some of the others, even though we have him posting better numbers than last season. Tatum should see around 31-32 minutes per game again, and that will chip away at the upside. Boston’s spread out play is also something that negates upside, and unless we see Boston just hand the keys to Walker and Tatum, then steady growth will continue to be what we see. His efficiency should continue to be there, even if he has a tick up in volume. The points per game is unlikely to reach any higher than 19-20, as 17-18 is a better projection. Tatum should chip in with peripheral stats, but isn’t quite on par with some of the other names in his range. Tatum isn’t a player I am drafting for immense upside, and more so just steady numbers throughout the year, and someone who won’t kill you in any one category.
The floor of Jayson Tatum is a lot similar to last season, which was a 15-6-2 type line. His defensive stats will fall in the same range, and he isn’t someone who turns the ball over much either. His assists are already on the lower side of things, which means that the floor isn’t much lower. Rebounding numbers and efficiency numbers should be around the same as well. Even if he doesn’t hit the 17-18 points per game as projected, 15-16 is a good floor. Tatum is a steady SF/PF, but more of a mid-range value at this point. I don’t see a massive year three leap for Tatum, so I would expect more of a floor season rather than a monster upside year. Keep this in mine when drafting, because names like Khris Middleton are around him, and the same goes for some enticing PF options.
What to Expect
At the moment, Tatum is being drafted at the 46th pick on average, which seems a bit high when you look at the comparison of a few others. Position scarcity is something to talk about with SF because it is a rather lackluster position. There are about 8-9 options to feel comfortable with. In snake drafts, Middleton is going right in this range, who I would prefer over Tatum. Danilo Gallinari is also going 20 picks later, and averaged 19-6-2 last season with similar shooting numbers. Once again, I would rather take that value over Tatum if you miss out on the top five SF. Even if Tatum posts bigger production, I can’t imagine it surpasses Middleton or Gallinari this season by a large number. Tatum isn’t someone I am actively seeking out in drafts, but in auctions you might be able to get a better value. There is some hype around him coming into the season which has driven up his draft value.
- Fantasy Basketball Excel Cheat Sheet
- Fantasy Basketball Top 100 Rankings
- 2019 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers
- Top 10 Point Guard Fantasy Sleepers
- Top 10 Shooting Guard Fantasy Sleepers
- Top 5 Center Fantasy Sleepers
- Top 5 Power Forward Fantasy Sleepers
- Top 5 Small Forward Fantasy Sleepers
- Russell Westbrook Fantasy Outlook
- Karl-Anthony Towns Fantasy Outlook
- Anthony Davis Fantasy Outlook
- Damian Lillard Fantasy Outlook
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Fantasy Outlook
- Nikola Jokic Fantasy Outlook
- Kyrie Irving Fantasy Outlook
- Stephen Curry Fantasy Outlook
- Jimmy Butler Fantasy Outlook
- Paul George Fantasy Outlook
- Rudy Gobert Fantasy Outlook
- LeBron James Fantasy Outlook
- James Harden Fantasy Outlook
- Kawhi Leonard Fantasy Outlook
- Zion Williamson Fantasy Outlook
- Ben Simmons Fantasy Outlook
- Jayson Tatum Fantasy Outlook
- RJ Barrett Fantasy Outlook
- Ja Morant Fantasy Outlook