NFL Player Props: Picks, Odds, & Strategy

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NFL Player Prop Odds

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Jacob Wayne Record:

NFL Week 1 Player Prop Picks

Sam LaPorta Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (1.14u, -114 FanDuel), Anytime Touchdown (0.5u, +320 PointsBet), and First Touchdown (0.1u, +2400 FanDuel)

The Lions selected Sam LaPorta in the second round of this year’s draft, and he’s the next big-time producer in the Iowa tight end pipeline. LaPorta has been taking snaps with the starters all preseason and sat out in Week 2 of the preseason against the Jaguars while Brock Wright and James Mitchell played.

This shouldn’t be a surprise – LaPorta ranked third in YAC and second in missed tackles forced among all tight ends last season per PFF. He lined up in the slot or out wide on 50.6% of his snaps, which will translate immediately in this offense. Before being traded last year, T.J. Hockenson spent 54.6% of his snaps in the slot or as a perimeter receiver and had an elite 20.4% target rate per route run.

Many NFL teams gravitate towards relying on veteran tight ends for pass blocking prowess, but LaPorta has been the team’s top graded tight end in pass protection in the preseason per PFF. However, he likely won’t be blocking much, as the Lions’ elite offensive line will have the leg up on a Chiefs’ defensive line that lost two starters from last year and could also be without Chris Jones as he’s in the midst of a holdout.

There’s no question that he’s already the top tight end on this team, and what a great matchup he walks into.For starters, this game has an over/under of 54 points, meaning we should get a great game script for LaPorta to produce. The Chiefs also struggled to guard tight ends last year, coughing up the 10th-most yards per route run to slot tight ends and allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends.

The Lions drafted LaPorta with a big role in mind right away as the Ben Johnson offense resulted in a franchise record 12 touchdowns for the tight end position despite T.J. Hockenson being traded halfway through the year. Johnson did an excellent job of scheming tight ends open in the red zone, and I expect that to extend to LaPorta this season. I’ll happily take anything over +250 in this type of game.

Everything checks out here – the player is highly talented, the role should be there, the game script and matchup line up. I have a feeling many fantasy football players will be lamenting not drafting Sam LaPorta on Thursday night.

Skyy Moore Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (1.14u, -114 FanDuel)

With JuJu Smith-Schuster off to the Patriots in free agency this offseason, the expectation is that Skyy Moore will become the starting slot receiver for the Chiefs. That was the case in the preseason as he was on the field for 17 of Patrick Mahomes’s 26 preseason snaps, including in two-wide receiver sets – he’s not just a slot receiver anymore.

Those in the Chiefs’ building have had glowing reviews of Moore leading up to this game, including from Mahomes himself. “He’s always been talented, but how comfortable he is within the offense, getting more opportunity. I’m excited for him to go out there and show everybody what I’ve been seeing.”

Brett Veach has also spoken about how Moore is expected to be an every down player, reiterating that Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross will be “package players” to start the season. Kadarius Toney hasn’t played all preseason and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a limited route tree. The runway is clear for Moore to potentially become Patrick Mahomes’s number two receiver in the offense behind only Travis Kelce.

Moore was a trendy player leading up to last season, but he had an inconsistent rookie year and has been left for dead by many. However, I love his value as a post-hype sleeper in fantasy football, and that extends to the player prop market. The Lions allowed the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers last year, and while they upgraded their cornerback room, I still love this matchup for Moore with a 54-point over/under.

Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer (0.5u, +145 DraftKings)

Travis Etienne’s perceived goal-line troubles are well documented – he had just a 20% TD rate on carries inside the 5-yard line last year. However, this is a small sample size and not a sticky stat year-to-year. He was a prolific collegiate scorer with 78 TDs across four years at Clemson, and I expect positive regression from him this season.

Jacksonville took Tank Bigsby with a third-round pick this year, and the expectation of many is that he’ll be the goal-line back. However, he fumbled on the goal-line in the final preseason game while Etienne scored. I think Etienne gets the first crack at goal-line work over the rookie.

The Jaguars have the sixth-highest team total in the NFL this week on DraftKings, and there’s no reason this should be priced at +145 with BetMGM sitting at -125. I’ll try to take advantage of that discrepancy here.

Jahan Dotson Anytime Touchdown (0.5u, +180 Caesars)

Jahan Dotson was quiet to start his rookie season, but ended the year very strong with 50+ yards in four of his final five games and a touchdown in three of them. He’s primed for a second-year breakout in the new Eric Bieniemy offense that’s expected to ratchet up the passing – Washington was dead last in pass rate in the first halves of games while Kansas City led the NFL.

Sam Howell has a ton of upside as a quarterback who was once seen as a consensus first-round prospect before a difficult final season at UNC. Howell’s confident slinging the ball downfield and will be doing so against an Arizona defense that ranked 23rd in coverage per PFF and only got worse after losing Byron Murphy Jr.

The game script here isn’t expected to be incredibly conducive to scoring and there could be some growing pains for Washington’s players in this new offense. Still, I love the value on Dotson to reach pay dirt after he scored seven touchdowns in just 12 games last season.

Shoutout to my esteemed colleague Braxton Reynolds for the inspiration here. Check out his first TD props page where he did an excellent job breaking down the matchup for Jahan Dotson this week.

NFL Player Prop Super Bowl Picks

Jerick McKinnon Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings) and Under 8.5 Longest Rush (-110 BetMGM)

Over the past few weeks, Jerick McKinnon has been mostly invisible in this offense. He has five or fewer carries and 30 or fewer snaps in four of his last five games. Over that span, he’s averaging just 1.8 yards per rush attempt and has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of those five games, as well. The one game where McKinnon had some decent production was against the Jaguars in the Divisional Round. Still, he needed 11 carries to clear 25 rushing yards in that game as he averaged just 2.3 YPC in that game.

However, Isiah Pacheco finished with 7.9 YPC, and it’s clear that he’s the far more dynamic option at this point. In that game against the Jaguars, Patrick Mahomes suffered the high ankle sprain mid game, and the Chiefs went much more run heavy as a result – they had 30 rushing attempts to 37 pass attempts. Last week against the Bengals, they went right back to their typical splits with 20 rushing attempts to 43 pass attempts.

Further clouding things for McKinnon is the fact that Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be activated for this game. Ronald Jones has still been seeing a few snaps every week, and with CEH entering the fold, he could take some of McKinnon’s rushing attempts. While CEH isn’t the elite runner the Chiefs had hoped when they took him in the first round, he’s still someone who could see some volume here.

For the longest rush prop, the under is the clear play. Just five of McKinnon’s 87 carries this year went for 10 yards – that’s one out of every 17.5 rush attempts. The Eagles’ run defense has also improved considerably down the stretch. Since Week 11, when they signed Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Sun, they rank top ten in both EPA and success rate against the run.

These lines opened at 23.5 rushing yards and 9.5 yards for the longest rush, and while the numbers have moved, I’d play these down to 8.5 for the longest rush prop and 20.5 rushing yards for his yardage. With the likely limited volume and somewhat difficult matchup, I’d project McKinnon for something around five carries for 15 yards as a median. I’m putting a unit on each of these props.

Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

If you’ve been betting the under on Jalen Hurts’ rushing yardage prop lately, you’ve been doing pretty well. He’s hit the under in eight of his last nine games. However, despite finishing under 40 rushing yards in three straight games, the line here opened at 44.5 yards and has continued to climb. Hurts is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, and while a shoulder injury has hampered him down the stretch, he should have plenty of time to recover during the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl.

Despite the shoulder injury being a detriment, Hurts has run for 34 and 39 yards in the Eagles’ two playoff games. Those games were both blowouts, and despite the big margin, he still had 9 and 11 rushing attempts. His rushing attempt prop is set at 10.5 for this game, and he has averaged 5.6 YPC this year, so he is expected to get the volume to clear his rushing yardage prop.

In the Chiefs’ playoff games against the Jaguars and Bengals, I targeted their opposing quarterbacks’ rushing prop. The reason was simple – the Chiefs allow the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and that’s risen to the second-most since their Week 8 bye. Quarterbacks also run at the third-highest rate against the Chiefs. Since that Week 8 bye, they’ve allowed 40+ rushing yards to the following quarterbacks: Jarrett Stidham, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, Bryce Perkins, and Malik Willis.

This is the biggest game of Jalen Hurts’s life. He’s going to leave it all on the line in this game, and that means he’ll be running the ball like he’s fully capable of. The current Super Bowl record for rushing yards by a quarterback is 64 yards from Steve McNair in Super Bowl XXIV. I believe Hurts will push to beat that record in a juicy matchup here, especially since this is expected to be a high-scoring game with an over/under of 50.5 points.

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-108 Caesars) and First Touchdown Scorer (0.25u, +650 FanDuel)

We’re not overthinking this. We’re betting on Kelce to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. All Kelce did all season was score touchdowns, and he’s the preferred option for the Chiefs around the goal-line. During the regular season, he led the NFL with 28 red-zone targets and ranked second with 16 targets inside the ten-yard line. Across the Chiefs’ first two playoff games, he has six targets inside the ten-yard line, and he’s scored three touchdowns in those two games.

The Eagles’ defense is overrated in the market. I’ve written about it repeatedly, and when they’ve played more potent offenses, it’s shown up. Philadelphia ranked 11th in red zone touchdown rate allowed this year at 52%. However, against opponents ranked in the top ten in red-zone scoring rate, the Eagles allowed a touchdown rate of 61%. The Chiefs rank second in red zone touchdown rate, so they should be able to punch the ball in.

The Eagles also ranked just 20th in PFF coverage grade against tight ends, and they were vulnerable in the middle of the field, particularly when playing zone coverage. We’re looking at a Super Bowl with an over/under total of 50.5 points, and this is the Kelce bowl as the two brothers face off. Kelce is going to be the most bet player to score in this game, and this is a remarkably public play. That won’t stop Mahomes from looking his way in the red-zone, though, and I’ll take on the public action.

Updated: 2/3/23 – 6:39 PM EST

Author: Jacob Wayne

What is an NFL Player Prop?

NFL player props are side bets not related to the actual outcome of the game. NFL player props are wagers on specific statistical outcomes relating to individual players. When betting them, you will root for the specific player to have success or not rather than rooting for a specific team to win the game or cover against the spread. One reason for the continued interest in NFL player props is the popularity of fantasy football and Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests which are closely tied to the statistical outcomes of player performance.

Types of NFL Player Props

There is a wide variety of NFL player props to choose from, and the list of available markets is only growing. The following are some of the NFL player props you will see listed at your preferred sportsbook:

• QB passing yards
• QB completions
• QB interceptions
• RB rushing yards
• RB rushing plus receiving yards
• WR receiving yards
• WR receptions
• TE receiving yards
• TE receptions
• Touchdown markets – (first/last, anytime, 1st half, 2nd half, etc.)
• Defensive player sacks
• Defensive player interceptions
• Defensive player tackles
• Two-player head-to-head props

How to Research NFL Player Props

There are several ways to go about researching NFL player props, but the core components remain the same – matchup and player hit rates. When we select player props to recommend, we are utilizing tools to discover how many times a player has gone over or under a selected line in recent weeks. It’s also important to know how good the opponent that your player is facing, and how good the player himself is. Efficiency metrics like EPA, DVOA, YPC, and red-zone metrics are huge in that realm. Additionally, always check the weather statistics as rain, wind, and snow can affect a team’s passing or rushing volume.

In a highly competitive, constantly changing market, every piece of information you consider can make a huge difference in winning and losing your bets. You can find NFL player prop picks at our Lineups YouTube Channel as well.  Let’s dive into some specifics across different positions:

Quarterbacks: Understanding matchups might be the most important for projecting quarterbacks in player prop betting as they are often the most reactive to the opponent they face. For example, betting on a quarterback to pass for a high number of yards would have been a much smarter choice against the Jets last year than it would have been against the Bills. The game script can also be key – will the team be in a fast-paced shootout? Will they be clawing back down multiple scores and in a pass-first mindset? Those are good things to know, as well.

Running Backs: There are more markets available for running backs than any other position, so knowing which prop you want to bet on is key. For example, the rushing + receiving yards prop might be inflated, but securing both categories can be important. It’s also smart to look into matchups with running backs before you place your bet. Targeting props for players facing defenses that allow a high number of rushing yards or touchdowns is smart. Finally, the game script can be everything for a running back as teams facing a large deficit will abandon the run, and teams with the lead will turn to the ground game to run out the clock.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends: Wide receivers and tight ends are essentially the same market as they have the same props available as pass-catchers for their respective teams. Having confidence in the team’s quarterback is important here, and is often more important than the talent level of the actual receiver. For example, I have always had a hard time betting on the Panthers’ D.J. Moore due to the putrid quarterback play he has been saddled with throughout his career. Like the positions above, the game script can be important, as is the matchup. You should typically avoid receivers facing top cornerbacks such as Jalen Ramsey or Jaire Alexander. Looking into their usage and targets is also key.

Where to Bet NFL Player Props

NFL player props are widely available across the legal U.S. sportsbooks, and the selection of available wagers is only continuing to grow. Some of the top sportsbooks where you can find NFL player props include BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, and Caesars. Check out our various sportsbook reviews to determine which option is the best for you and access the highest-value promotional offers available.

NFL Player Prop Odds Shopping

While you can place wagers on NFL player props with any sportsbook, you should always be shopping the market across different platforms. As with any market, the odds can vary significantly across different sportsbooks. You can check back on this page every week for the latest odds from various platforms, and we will always recommend sportsbooks in our articles based on where you can find the best odds. Keep in mind that the odds can also be boosted by available promotional offers.

NFL Player Props FAQ

• What are NFL player prop bets?
• Where can I legally place NFL player prop bets online?
• What happens if the player I bet on gets injured?
• Why can some NFL player props get voided?
• Will the NFL player prop lines change throughout the week?
• Is live betting available for NFL player props?