FedEx St. Jude Championship Opening Odds & Betting Preview: Early Bets & Picks, Including Viktor Hovland
The heat is on, PGA Tour heads to Memphis, Tenn., to kick off the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs. The first stop is the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Our weekly preview begins, as always, with a look at TPC Southwind and the FedEx St. Jude Championship odds.
The FedExCup Playoffs continue to evolve their format. Like last year, however, a condensed field of the 70 best players in the FedEx Cup Standings will tee it up in Memphis. Similar to the Signature Event structure earlier this season, this event will feature no cut, with 72 holes guaranteed for the full field. After this week, the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings will qualify for the BMW Championship for the second round of the playoffs at Caves Valley. Next week, all players in the BMW Championship field will secure the highly coveted exemptions for all 2025 Designated Events.
Despite all the changes, TPC Southwind is no stranger to the tour, as it has hosted events each year since 1989. We’ve gotten our fair share of high-stakes, limited-field action here as well, with the top 70 players in the world coming for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational from 2019-2021. TPC Southwind is known for extremely firm, fast Bermuda greens, penal Bermuda rough, and persistent water hazards throughout. Those have given players a stern tee-to-green test and kept winning scores in a modest range.
Typically, when we see a loaded field of all the game’s best players in one place, it comes on a rotating course set up for Majors or a playoff event. The unique combination of a limited yet jam-packed field on familiar grounds should result in fewer surprises and a more predictable result from one of the presumptive favorites and, therefore, breed a tighter, more top-heavy betting card. I’ll look to hone in on the players who are best in terms of SG: APP, Total Driving, and SG: P (Firm & Fast Bermuda) when building out my card.
Consider A Donation
I’d be remiss to kick off a preview of this event without encouraging anyone with some spare golf betting winnings to consider a donation to St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. It is, without a doubt, one of the best charity organizations out there and one I’m proud to help donate to each year.
Now let’s get into the key facts and info about TPC Southwind for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds
Below are the St. Jude Championship betting odds to win the event. Click any odds to place a bet. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
Field At A Glance
The field is set with the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings ready to tee it up in Memphis. In this reduced field of 70, there will be no cut, so all players will have the security of four full rounds ahead of them.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship field will be locked at the conclusion of the Wyndham Championship, but as of Sunday afternoon, Davis Thompson, Emiliano Grillo, and Gary Woodland sit on the inside of the top-70 bubble. Erik van Rooyen, Cam Davis, and Nicolai Hojgaard are in a position to bump them out depending on their Sunday finishes.
For now, all of the top 70 in the FedEx Cup Standings are healthy and ready to play in Memphis this week with one notable exception: Rory McIlroy. His decision to skip the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs undermines the institution of the entire playoff structure. In what other sport would an athlete grind throughout the regular season just to pass on participating in the start of the playoffs? In reality, the first round does serve as an effective bye week for the top 10 players on TOUR, as they are already locked in for a spot in the TOUR Championship field, and are playing for nothing more than the gaudy prize purse.
Like the other Signature Events preceding the playoffs this year, we should expect Scottie Scheffler to be the prohibitive favorite, with Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood following distantly as the second tier of headliners. Should there be any withdrawals, there will be no backfill from alternates.
Hideki Matsuyama is back in the field to defend his 2024 title, where he cruised past Xander Scheuffele and Viktor Hovland as chasers. Despite its long history between the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and St. Jude Classic, Lucas Glover, Daniel Berger, and Justin Thomas are the only other past winners at TPC Southwind in the field this week. For reference, Will Zalatoris, Abraham Ancer, Brooks Koepka, and Dustin Johnson have each won this event over the last decade, but are either not qualified for the 2025 playoffs or have since left the PGA TOUR for LIV.
Introduction To TPC Southwind
This tournament has endured many changes over the years, but despite the rotating events that have run through TPC Southwind, the course has remained a mainstay since 1989. TPC Southwind hosted the St. Jude Classic and kept the event on the schedule here through 2018. In 2019, the WGC Bridgestone at Firestone CC became known as the WGC St. Jude Invitational, attracting the top 75 players in the world to Memphis for increased prize money. In its three years as host to the WGC event, TPC Southwind produced winners of Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, and Abraham Ancer.
At 7,233 yards, TPC Southwind measures fairly average in terms of length by PGA Tour standards, and the list of contenders over the years would suggest that distance is not a prerequisite for success. The top 10 in SG: TOT at TPC Southwind are Dustin Johnson, Daniel Berger, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Seung-yul Noh, Chez Reavie, Austin Cook, Webb Simpson, Harris English, and Billy Horschel. Generally speaking, that suggests an emphasis on players who can consistently position themselves well off the tee and are predominantly comfortable putting on pure Bermuda greens. Since the St. Jude Classic evolved into the WGC FedEx St. Jude, we’ve seen a progression of the cream rising to the top. Skilled players from tee to green should naturally be best suited to navigate this course.
How It Breaks Down
As another par-70, TPC Southwind deprioritizes the importance of Par-5 Scoring. Just two exist on the property, which in turn mitigates the volume of birdie-or-better opportunities. The two par 5s, each reachable in two, are the only holes at TPC Southwind with a scoring average better than 0.1 under par. By contrast, 12 holes have a scoring average above par, with half averaging at least 0.1 strokes over par.
That sets us up for a complete tee-to-green test. It will reward well-rounded players who can keep their tee shots in the fairway and scramble often to save par.
Unlike Sedgefield CC, TPC Southwind features a balanced distribution of hole ranges, which should again suit the most skilled players in the field who possess a diverse arsenal of shots. With that said, a concentration of nearly one in every three approach shots came from 150-175 yards in last year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. So, players with strong mid-irons should capitalize most on the scoring opportunities.
There are 10 holes between 400-500 yards, so as tends to be the case on any given PGA Tour event, the players who can capitalize on these holes should find themselves in contention by week’s end.
Course History & Course Comps
When I think of the FedEx St. Jude at TPC Southwind, names like Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Abraham Ancer come to mind first as perennial contenders. Unfortunately, none of them will be back in Memphis this week, which creates a wide-open feeling heading into the first event of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Daniel Berger, Hideki Matsuyama, and Justin Thomas – each past champions of this event – rank No. 1, 2, and 3, respectively, in terms of course history. They are followed by Scottie Scheffler, Michael Kim, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, and Lucas Glover. Memphis in August is no walk in the park, so I still find value in referencing course history this week, as certain players are better equipped than others to withstand some of the hottest playing conditions we see all season.
Looking at results over the last five years, there are 13 players who have posted multiple top-15 finishes: Lucas Glover, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, and Robert MacIntyre.
Course Comps
The emphasis of driving accuracy over distance (particularly to avoid water hazards and gnarly Bermuda rough), and putting on smooth Bermuda greens, are staples of Florida golf that should translate well to TPC Southwind. As evidence, the success seen in recent years by Florida residents Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Daniel Berger.
The course that jumps out as the closest embodiment to these conditions is East Lake. East Lake features the same agronomy of Zoysia fairways and pure Champion Bermuda greens, moderate scoring conditions with severe penalty for missed fairways, and consistent names atop the leaderboard like Billy Horschel, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy.
In addition to East Lake, TPC Sawgrass comes to mind next as a more challenging TPC layout with a similar emphasis on positional tee shots and the option to get more aggressive with the driver from hole to hole. TPC Scottsdale, Sedgefield CC, PGA National, Harbour Town, Stadium Course, Waialae CC, and Innisbrook Resort each also feature similar Bermuda grass layouts with overlapping results from players with comparable profiles.
On a secondary level, it’s hard to deny the overlap of success between Pebble Beach and TPC Southwind. Both tracks have exposure to the wind with water in play throughout and have rewarded players with a combination of accuracy off the tee and precision with mid-irons. Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger, and even Chez Reavie highlight the top 10 of course history at both courses.
Combine performance across this list, and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Wyndham Clark, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Cantlay.
Key Stats To Consider With FedEx St. Jude Odds
- SG: T2G
- SG: APP / SG: Ball Striking
- Fairways Gained
- Opportunities Gained
- Scrambling Gained
- Prox 125-200
- SG: P (Bermuda) / SG: P (Firm & Fast greens)
- Par-4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
- Course & Comp Course History
Rather than overcomplicate the model here, I prefer to hone in on the players who enter in the best overall form. Over the last 12 rounds going into this week, the top-10 players in SG: T2G are Scottie Scheffler, Chris Gotterup, Keegan Bradley, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Emiliano Grillo, Kurt Kitayama, Ben Griffin, and Xander Schauffele. Just eight players rank top-25 in SG: T2G and SG: P on Bermuda greens: Chris Gotterup, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick, Emiliano Grillo, Ben Griffin, Ryan Fox, Viktor Hovland, and Harris English.
Approach play will remain a crucial stat this week on a golf course that has consistently rewarded trending ball strikers. The top 10 in SG: APP entering this week are Scottie Scheffler, Daniel Berger, Emiliano Grillo, Viktor Hovland, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Akshay Bhatia, Hideki Matsuyama, Ryan Fox, and Patrick Cantlay.
The firm and fast greens are a significant piece of TPC Southwind’s identity. We’ve seen players who excel in these particular conditions go on to find more repeated success at this course. The top 10 in SG: P (Firm & Fast Greens) are Sam Burns, Harry Hall, Denny McCarthy, Jacob Bridgeman, Ryan Fox, Harris English, Akshay Bhatia, Ben Griffin, Max Greyserman, and Nico Echavarria.
The ideal player for this week should rank above average across weighted putting categories, SG: T2G, Fairways Gained, Scrambling Gained, and SG: APP. Only six players meet that criteria in this week’s field: Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Harris English, and Emiliano Grillo.
Biggest Correlations
Looking at the correlation charts this week for TPC Southwind, Double Bogey Avoidance noticeably jumps into the top 10 most important stats. More than 5% of the field makes double or worse on three different holes, a side effect of the 11 holes where water hazards come into play.
We also see a larger-than-usual jump in the importance of SG: APP and SG: Short Game this week compared to the TOUR average. Each of these categories enters the top 10. On the flip side, Par-5 Scoring, Par-3 Scoring, and SG: OTT will be stats to deprioritize this week. They have proven far less consequential here than on TOUR average.
Top 10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top 10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at TPC Southwind
Only five players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, and Lucas Glover.
Player Spotlight: Viktor Hovland ()
The cast of recent winners at TPC Southwind (Matsuyama, Glover, Zalatoris, Ancer, Thomas) is an eclectic one. What they each shared in common, however, was their ability to win through a ceiling approach week alone. Each of the last five winners had experienced inconsistency off the tee leading in, but were in complete control of their approach game to compensate. When I look through the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship field beyond Scottie Scheffler, it’s Hovland who best fits that mold.
Hovland’s history at TPC Southwind suggests the only thing he has left to do here is win. He’s improved steadily in each trip back to this event with finishes of T59, T36, T20, T13, and T2. His runner-up finish in 2024 was a valiant effort, as he nearly erased an 8-stroke lead from a red-hot Hideki Matsuyama.
Though held in Memphis, Tennessee, this event has the look and feel of your typical Florida Swing track. The agronomy features Bermuda grass throughout, with ample water hazards posing the greatest threat for inaccurate strikes. Hovland should relish a return to Florida-style golf, picking up his lone victory earlier this 2025 season at the Valspar Championship. He conjured a similar game plan of elite iron play and spike putting performance then, which will be the formula needed yet again this week in Memphis.
In a season where most of the PGA TOUR’s brightest stars have disappointed and find themselves limping into the playoffs (Cantlay, Morikawa, Spieth, Aberg), Hovland’s form is heating up as he searches for his third FedEx Cup playoff win since 2023.
2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
Tier 1
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
Tier 2
- Viktor Hovland
- Justin Thomas
- Russell Henley
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Tommy Fleetwood
Tier 3
- Sepp Straka
- Ben Griffin
- Wyndham Clark
- Harris English
- Hideki Matsuyama
Tier 4
- Emiliano Grillo
- Nico Echavarria
- Harry Hall
- Daniel Berger
Tier 5
- Denny McCarthy
- Max Greyserman
- Davis Thompson
FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds: Model Results & Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: T2G, SG: APP, Comp Course History, Weighted Putting (L36, Bermuda, and Firm & Fast Conditions), followed by a more balanced mix of Fairways Gained, Prox 125-200, and Scrambling Gained.
Model Favorites
To no surprise, Scottie Scheffler remains the man to beat, according to my model this week. Fresh off his second runaway major championship win of the season at Royal Portrush, there is no reason to believe Scheffler’s run of dominance will stop here, especially with Rory McIlroy bowing out. I will be placing all of my outright bets in the Without Scheffler this week as a sign of respect for this historical stretch of golf he continues to display.
After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 consist of Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Ben Griffin, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, and Sam Burns.
When odds open on Monday, I’ll look to center my card around Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, and Viktor Hovland, depending on where odds ultimately fall.
Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds!
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