2026 Oscars Preview: Picks, Predictions, Odds, Category Analysis for the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards return on Sunday, March 15, 2026 in what seems to be one of the more unpredictable Oscars in quite some time. There are some clear stand outs to go home with hardware for the 2026 Oscars, and we’ll go through each category to get you prepared for betting the event or simply beating your friends and family during your Oscars Pool.
However you plan to engage with this event, it doesn’t hurt to have an understanding of each category’s outlook when comparing betting odds and opinion. Let’s break down the 2026 Oscars and go over everything you need to know when betting or simply picking winners for this novelty market event!
How to Bet the 2026 Oscars?
If you are looking to place your first wagers on the 2026 Oscars in real time, you are very late to the party. The Oscars is a betting market you have to start as early as now for next year. The reason? Odds shift dramatically in the Oscars betting market, using an example from a few years ago for the Best Actress winner Jessica Chastain.
She opened at +500 odds to win Best Actress but then won the SAG for Best Actress, and the following night was -250. So if you have a blank betting ticket entering the 2026 Oscars, have no fear, as we have recommended value shots to consider in the article below. However, let this be the disclaimer that you must begin betting on the Academy Awards as early as odds are released.
2026 Oscars Category Breakdown
This year is unique in that there is a new award, Best Casting. As it is a new market for the Oscars, we will not cover that category in this article as there is not enough past data to give an accurate opinion on the market and it’s voting patterns. With that said, let’s break down the other 2026 Oscars categories going through the odds, picks to win, snubs and long shots to consider.
Odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
2026 Best Picture Odds & Analysis
- One Battle After Another -500
- Sinners +330
- Hamnet +2000
- Marty Supreme +4000
- Sentimental Value +6500
- Train Dreams +10000
- Bugonia +10000
- Frankenstein +10000
- The Secret Agent +20000
- F1 +200000
Pick: One Battle After Another
Best Value: Sinners +330
Snub: Sorry, Baby
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see One Battle After Another steamroll the night based on precursor award show results. There is an outside chance Sinners pulls off a historic night, but many of the award shows that have already occurred seem to be locked in on One Battle After Another. Past the two favorites, Sentimental Value seems to be the only real dark horse with a chance of an upset – the likely Best International Film winner and personally the most enjoyable movie in 2026 for me.
2026 Best Director Odds & Analysis
- Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) -2500
- Ryan Coogler (Sinners) +800
- Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) +1600
- Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) +3500
- Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) +4000
Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Best Value: Ryan Coogler (Sinners) +800
Snub: Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident)
The Best Director and Best Picture awards typically go hand-in-hand, so if you like Sinners as an upset for Best Picture then Ryan Coogler for Best Director should also be on your value board. It seems like PTA is a lock, however, which would indicate both of the top categories will be won by One Battle After Another occupants. This is important for categories we’ll go over later, but for now it seems PTA is the winner here and therefore One Battle After Another will likely take the category above too.
2026 Best Actor Odds & Analysis
- Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) -120
- Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) +130
- Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) +1000
- Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) +1100
- Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) +2000
Pick: Timothee Chalamet
Best Value: Michael B. Jordan +130
Snub: Dylan O’Brien (Twinless)
This is where Sinners has a real chance to make some noise as an upset, with Chalamet a once large favorite but has dropped significantly since MBJ’s win at the SAG’s. The SAG results are a big deal for this category, so Chalamet bettors should be worried. If Timmy goes home empty handed he might turn into the next DiCaprio where he is nominated a lot before actually winning. Personally, Hawke was the best to me but seems very unlikely to win.
Chalamet, personally, should’ve won last year over Adrian Brody but the conviction for me that he wins this year isn’t there. Of the nominees, Hawke was the best but Chalamet is a close second. The idea MBJ should win because he played twins I’m not buying as Dylan O’Brien performed a twin role better, while Jim Gaffigan also performed two roles last year in Linoleum to perfection. Hawke and Chalamet are the standouts for me here, but MBJ’s SAG win definitely complicates things. Don’t be surprised if MBJ is the favorite on Oscars night.
2026 Best Actress Odds & Analysis
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) -3500
- Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) +1200
- Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) +2500
- Emma Stone (Bugonia) +2500
- Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) +2500
Pick: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Best Value: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) +1200
Snub: Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)
This is an easy category to pick, as Jessie Buckley is the runaway winner here. There is a small chance Rose Byrne or Renate Reinsve pull off an upset, but Buckley was the best – plain and simple.
2026 Best Supporting Actor Odds & Analysis
- Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) -350
- Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) +400
- Delroy Lindo (Sinners) +750
- Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) +1600
- Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) +2500
Pick: Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
Best Value: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) +1600
Snub: Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet)
Sean Penn was the best supporting actor to me the entire year, up until November when Sentimental Value came out. This should be a tighter race then the odds indicate, as both Penn and Skarsgard have been back-and-forth as the favorites over the last few months. If you like Penn to win then your value play should be Skarsgard, but any value for Penn is long gone now as he had plus-money odds for many months prior to March.
2026 Best Supporting Actress Odds & Analysis
- Amy Madigan (Weapons) +125
- Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) +150
- Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) +225
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) +2500
- Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) +10000
Pick: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Best Value: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) +2500
Snub: Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery)
This is a very difficult category to predict, with the top three names winning major awards in recent months while my personal favorite is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. It hurts the see the Sentimental Value pair at the very bottom, but this is very much a toss up. With the steam One Battle After Another might have entering the event, the logical choice is Taylor – also due some recognition for her snub in A Thousand and One.
Madigan is a great story, a newcomer on the scene in an iconic role while Mosaku presents an underdog with pulse. This is another category that should go to One Battle After Another should the film pick up momentum on Oscars night, but Madigan’s SAG win and Sinners also a real threat to upset a lot of categories makes this the toughest category to forecast.
2026 Best Original Screenplay Odds & Analysis
- Sinners -1000
- Marty Supreme +800
- It Was Just An Accident +1000
- Sentimental Value +1600
- Blue Moon +4000
Pick: Sinners
Best Value: It Was Just An Accident +1000
Snub: Weapons
For what it’s worth, Twinless is also a snub here – but that’s not important. Sinners should easily win this category. It’s no surprise to see It Was Just An Accident and Blue Moon nominated, heavy dialogue scripts that are typically rewarded in screenplay categories. For that reason it’s unlikely Marty Supreme pulls off an upset although Sentimental Value is also a solid look outside the favorite. This should be Sinners though with no real threat.
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Odds & Analysis
Pick: One Battle After Another
Best Value: Hamnet +1000
Snub: Nouvelle Vague
The Best Picture winner usually comes out of the screenplay category, so One Battle After Another should be the winner here. With the top two favorites for Best Picture in different screenplay categories, these two should be easily predictable. Sinners and One Battle After Another will be head-to-head in a race for awards all night, and the screenplay categories will only add fuel to their fire in winning the bigger categories such as Best Picture and Best Director.
2026 Best Cinematography Odds & Analysis
Pick: One Battle After Another
Best Value: Train Dreams +550
Snub: Bugonia
If you followed along this year, the recommended play was One Battle After Another when it had +350 odds to win. That is long gone as it is now the favorite and should win thanks to a classic ending through the desert. Train Dreams is a live dog though, artistically the best camera work of any film this year.
2026 Best Animated Film Odds & Analysis
- KPop Demon Hunters -1800
- Zootopia 2 +900
- Little Amelie or the Character of Rain +1100
- Elio +3500
- Arco +3500
Pick: KPop Demon Hunters
Best Value: Zootopia 2 +900
Snub: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba The Movie – Infinity Castle
The waterfall visuals in Demon Slayer alone were better than most of these nominees in their entirety, and possibly the biggest snub of any category in the past decade. With that said, this is tricky because of a Zootopia 2 win earlier this month. This should be a layup for KPop Demon Hunters, but the door is very much open for Zootopia 2 to pull off the upset. The last two Best Animated Film winners were also underdogs entering (‘Flow’ an underdog to ‘The Wild Robot’ and ‘The Boy and the Heron’ an underdog to ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’).
2026 Best Documentary Odds & Analysis
- The Perfect Neighbor -240
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin +250
- Come See Me in the Good Light +600
- The Alabama Solution +1400
- Cutting Through Rocks +6500
Pick: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Value: Come See Me in the Good Light +600
Snub: Deaf President Now
This is a tight race between three solid documentaries, but the two stand outs are The Perfect Neighbor and Mr. Nobody Against Putin. These two are not only better than Come See Me in the Good Light, but they also tackle social and political issues. Self-portrait documentaries typically fall to those ones, but the peer voting might actually lift Come See Me in the Good Light into the winner’s circle and is the value play in this category. Personally, Come See Me in the Good Light barely entered my Top 15 documentaries – so it’s a stretch to see a big upset here.
2026 Best International Film Odds & Analysis
- Sentimental Value (Norway) -250
- The Secret Agent (Brazil) +175
- It Was Just An Accident (France) +1400
- The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) +2800
- Sirat (Spain) +5000
Pick: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Best Value: The Secret Agent (Brazil) +175
Snub: Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan)
This is a two-horse race, although It Was Just An Accident has a screenplay nomination over The Secret Agent. The Secret Agent does have Wagner Moura as a representative in the major categories, but looking at the nomination pool alone this should be Sentimental Value’s to win. Personally, it was the best movie of the year and is the biggest international threat to winning Best Picture.
Joachim Trier is also nominated for Best Director – so of all the Best International Film nominees Sentimental Value has nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress (2) and many more.
2026 Best Production Design Odds & Analysis
Pick: Frankenstein
Best Value: Hamnet +2000
Snub: Wicked: For Good
This is an easy pick, Frankenstein all day. The ship alone would win Best Production Design as it was crafted in its entirety. Hamnet presents the best value but Frankenstein’s stagecraft is too good throughout.
2026 Best Costume Design Odds & Analysis
Pick: Frankenstein
Best Value: Sinners +1200
Snub: Wicked: For Good
The oddsmakers really like Frankenstein here, and although a visually appealing movie, seeing -2500 odds for this category is a bit surprising. The production design was far more impressive than the costume design in Frankenstein, with Sinners a personal favorite in this category. If Sinners does pull off a few upsets then this category would A) be one of those upsets and B) result in the most profitable one.
The odds don’t match the opinion but it’s hard to argue against -2500, so back Frankenstein but Sinners at +1200 is a very acceptable shot in the dark bet for those with couch money to spend. If Sinners wins, the irony is that the costumes were actually purchased from the canceled Blade movie… who would’ve thought?
2026 Best Makeup & Hairstyle Odds & Analysis
Pick: Frankenstein
Best Value: Sinners +1000
Snub: Wicked: For Good
These odds seem much more on par with the general thinking in makeup and hairstyle, with Jacob Elordi alone winning this category for Frankenstein. The hairstyle was great from Sinners but the makeup and hairstyle from Frankenstein’s monster alone is enough to seal this category. As we progress through the visual categories, it’s clear the consistency here is that Wicked: For Good is the snub and Frankenstein is the film to beat in all three markets.
2026 Best Sound Odds & Analysis
Pick: F1 the Movie
Best Value: Sinners +600
Snub: Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
This is another category Sinners can win if it begins to catch heat on Oscars night. Personally, Sinners was the best sound of any movie this year which was highlighted during the camera-panned scene of the dance floor of different music throughout time. Music or engine noise is what this comes down to, and the sound mixing is just more difficult to balance with music then engines revving. Still, the odds don’t lie so we’ll lean F1 as our pick but Sinners is a great bet to consider here.
2026 Best Score Odds & Analysis
Pick: Sinners
Best Value: Bugonia +2500
Snub: Marty Supreme
This should be Sinners all day, a category it held as top dog all year and never knocked off it’s perch. With that said, the only real threat from our end is Marty Supreme which missed out on nominations. Sinners should be the layup pick here.
2026 Best Song Odds & Analysis
- Golden (KPop Demon Hunters) -1400
- I Lied To You (Sinners) +550
- Train Dreams (Train Dreams) +2000
- Dear Me (Relentless: Diane Warren) +2500
- Sweet Dreams of Joy (Viva Verdi!) +3500
Pick: Golden (KPop Demon Hunter)
Best Value: I Lied To You (Sinners) +550
Snub: Highest to Lowest (Highest to Lowest)
This should be an easy win for Golden, a song that has sat at the top of the billboard whatever for an insane amount of weeks. It’s the most played song in Netflix history, blah blah blah. Golden has the template to easily win this category. With all that said, I Lied To You is a personal favorite and worth a look should Sinners take off. For the likelihood and resume Golden has entering the Oscars, the value for I Lied To You isn’t great – which is an indicator of a potential underdog alert.
2026 Best Film Editing Odds & Analysis
- One Battle After Another -400
- F1 the Movie +240
- Sinners +1200
- Marty Supreme +2500
- Sentimental Value +10000
Pick: One Battle After Another
Best Value: Sinners +1200
Snub: Hamnet
The ‘radar’ market. This category is a huge indicator of the Best Picture winner – as this category’s winner is typically lifting Best Picture hardware as well. Seeing One Battle After Another as the favorite reveals a lot, much like Anora as a slight favorite despite a few movies threatening it’s Best Picture status. Seeing Sinners with lower odds in this category than F1 the Movie is also worrisome for Sinners Best Picture bettors. Sentimental Value getting a nomination in this category is more evidence that it is also the clear standout of international pictures this year.
2026 Best Visual Effects Odds & Analysis
- Avatar: Fire and Ash -2500
- F1 the Movie +1000
- Sinners +1200
- The Lost Bus +2500
- Jurassic World: Rebirth +3500
Pick: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Value: F1 the Movie +1000
Snub: Predator: Badlands
One would think Avatar 3 is the easy pick here, and it very well might win. The odds certainly indicate another Visual Effects win for James Cameron but it seems to be rinse and repeat, which actually hurt Dune 2 for Best Score a year ago. If voters are tired of a repeated pattern by awarding a visual effect we’ve seen three times now, then F1 the Movie becomes a real value play here. The voters love the names involved in F1 the Movie (Top Gun: Maverick crew) and presents the best chance to dethrone the Avatar visuals dynasty.
Best 2026 Movies Not Nominated
Here is a very small list of movies worth watching that were not nominated for an Academy Award… but could’ve been.
- Nouvelle Vague
- Sovereign
- Sorry, Baby
- Twinless
- The Ballad of Wallis Island
- Left-Handed Girl
- Rental Family
- Is This Thing On?
- The Baltimorons
- Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba The Movie – Infinity Castle
- Jay Kelly
- Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
- Predator: Badlands
- Predator: Killer of Killers
- Deaf President Now
- A Nice Indian Boy
- Sketch
- The Long Walk
- Chainsaw Man: The Reze Arc
