2026 US Open Golf Pools: Strategy, Ideas, Expert Picks & Predictions For Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Golf majors have become the most popular weeks of the year for golf pools. So, if you’re a casual sports fan, hesitant to bet US Open odds, and want to play in a contest with friends, you’ve come to the right place. This strategy guide will walk you through the best options in each tier for your 2026 US Open golf pool picks.
I’ve also already written about US Open DFS picks for fantasy contests. These could apply to traditional pools, too.
US OPEN FAVORITES: TOP 10 IN 2026 ODDS
Find odds for this year’s US Open favorites below. You can use these to inform your US Open pool picks as well. Click any odds to wager on US Open odds at betting apps in your area.
STRATEGY FOR US OPEN GOLF POOL PICKS
Like a daily fantasy tournament strategy (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.), game theory is key for your US Open golf pool picks. It’s best first to understand who the popular players in each tier will be, then decide which ones you want to double down on and which ones you’re comfortable fading for a more contrarian option. Below, we’ll review each tier’s consensus popular and pivot plays. The format in each golf pool will vary, but the below tiers are structured in order of consensus betting odds, as is most common for golf pools.
How Do US Open Pools Work?
Typically, the best cumulative score under par of the players rostered wins a US Open pool. Some pools will severely penalize one of your players’ scores if they miss the cut. For example, if a player misses the cut with a score of +2, the pool may add 10 strokes and make the player +12. That means it’s critical that the players you pick make the cut. Also, check your pool rules to see if the worst score is not counted among your picks. Sometimes, this is a feature of golf pool rules and scoring.
Tier 1: Top 1-8 Players
The Popular Play: Scottie Scheffler
All eyes will be on the World No. 1 at Shinnecock Hills, as the four-time major champion will get his first crack at achieving the career Grand Slam. Shinnecock Hills may be the most ideal U.S. Open setup we’ve ever seen for Scheffler’s game, as it rewards elite total driving, flighted approaches into constant wind, and creative scrambling around the greens.
Scheffler is not a pure bomber, which has played against him on longer US Open venues like Oak Hill, Los Angeles Country Club, Torrey Pines, and Winged Foot. Here, accurate driving will go rewarded, making him the prohibitive betting favorite and clear number 1 threat to win the 2026 US Open.
The Pivot Play: Rory McIlroy
It’s been another great start to the season for the World No. 2, who dominated at Augusta National two months ago to claim his second green jacket. McIlroy will be fresh heading into this event, opting for a very selective PGA Tour schedule in 2026. Even still, he remains in great form with four top-15 finishes over his first six starts of the year.
The driver has been a concern for McIlroy, whose lone win of 2026 came in spite of an extremely sporadic performance off the tee. Shinnecock Hills will be far more penalizing to wayward drives than Augusta National’s massive fairways, so I’m cautiously skeptical about McIlroy’s ability to contend here if the driving accuracy does not improve considerably. That said, he represents an interesting contrarian option in pools, with plenty of win equity as he chases his second major victory of 2026.
Tier 2: Top 9-20 Players
The Popular Play: Sam Burns
Once known as a Bermuda putting specialist best suited for easier birdie-fests, Burns continues to throw his hat in the ring in recent major championships. A T7 finisher at The Masters earlier this year, Burns has also finished top-10 in each of the last two US Opens. That includes last year at Oakmont, where he led for the majority of the tournament before the weather took a turn for the worse.
Burns is in full rhythm now, finishing top-24 in seven of his last nine starts. It’s the improvements to his short game that have propelled him to more consistent results during this stretch, and that will be crucial for his prospects to contend at Shinnecock if that form continues.
The Pivot Play: Patrick Reed
It’s been a fascinating season for Patrick Reed, who left LIV, won two of his first three DP World Tour starts, and now seems content to only play in the majors until he’s officially earned 2027 PGA Tour status.
A lack of reps in-between majors has not influenced his play, as Reed has finished T12 and T10 in the first two majors of the year. If conditions are harsh, and Shinnecock Hills becomes another scrambling contest, Reed will be licking his chops as one of the most reliable scramblers in this field.
Tier 3: Top 21-50 Players
The Popular Play: Cameron Smith
You don’t hear the term “generous” often in association with US Opens, but that has been the buzzword for players all week at Shinnecock Hills when describing the fairways. That should be music to the ears of Cameron Smith, who feasted on the generous fairways of St. Andrews in his 2023 Open Championship victory. It’s no coincidence that Smith’s two career US Open top-5 finishes have come on similarly generous driving venues (Los Angeles Country Club & Chambers Bay).
It’s taken a long time, but Smith is finally starting to play like his past dominant self on LIV again. He’s finished T7, T16, and T5 over his last three starts, and has done so in vintage form, with huge gains from fairway to green. Smith’s T7 at the PGA Championship last month notably snapped a streak of six-straight missed cuts in majors, so he should enter Shinnecock Hills with some newfound confidence in his game.
The Pivot Play: David Puig
Any LIV fans who still remain will convince you until they’re blue in the face that David Puig is one of, if not the best, young talents in the game of golf today. I would like to see him perform against the best in the world more consistently before passing my judgment, but a T18 at last month’s PGA Championship was certainly an encouraging sight to see.
Puig profiles as a bomber with elite putting skill and a reliable touch around the greens. The area he needs to improve on most to this point in his early career is his approach play, having lost strokes to the field on approach in eight of his last 12 starts. If Shinnecock Hills borders on unplayable conditions where greens are impossible to hold for well-struck approaches, a scrambling contest will tip in Puig’s favor. With six consecutive top-20 finishes leading into this week, I believe Puig is a very appealing high-upside, low-owned play in pool formats.
Tier 4: Top 51-75 Players
The Popular Play: Alex Fitzpatrick
The heater talk can be put to rest now. Alex Fitzpatrick is a legitimate PGA Tour pro who has officially transcended beyond the shadow of his star brother. Since winning the Zurich Classic team event and gaining full PGA Tour status, Fitzpatrick has not skipped a beat, with three top-10 finishes over his next five starts.
Shinnecock Hills will be the toughest test he’s faced yet, but finishes of 1st at the Hero Indian Open, 4th at the Truist Championship, and T6 at the Memorial Tournament within his last seven starts prove he is fully capable of grinding in the most difficult of scoring conditions.
The Pivot Play: Alex Noren
You’ll notice a theme of short game specialists in this article. Noren’s resume lacks a win on the PGA Tour, thus making him a longshot to win the 2026 US Open, but you have to feel good about his floor outcome at Shinnecock Hills. Noren has finished top-30 at each of the first two majors of the season, and has finished top-35 in 10 of his last 12 starts leading into this week. He also notably won twice on the DP World Tour this past Fall, so he is capable of contending under pressure.
Of the four majors, its The Open Championship where Noren has found the most success over his veteran career, finishing top-25 in five of his last six appearances. That’s an encouraging sign as he prepares for Shinnecock Hills, whose links setup will emulate that of an Open Championship venue more so than a traditional US Open. With one of the most dependable short games on the PGA Tour, Noren projects as a reliable cut-maker and viable top-20 option this week.
Tier 5: Top 76+ Players
The Popular Play: Nick Taylor
Taylor’s history in majors has been puzzlingly poor, considering his track record as a high-stakes closer on the PGA Tour. He appeared to be more ready for the moment at Aronimink last month, however, as he was in contention leading into Sunday before finishing T26. He is playing his best golf of the season now, with three finishes of T26 or better over his last three starts.
As an accurate ball striker with a consistent short game, Taylor’s game has held up well in difficult, windy conditions, as proven by his past win at Pebble Beach. Having finished top-40 in three of his last four major starts, I believe we are starting to see Taylor turn a corner on the biggest stage. He makes for a high-floor, low-owned option in pools this week.
The Pivot Play: Jackson Suber
The US Open is designed for the cream to rise to the top, so it’s hard to feel too confident in any players from the lowest tier to truly contend. In the same vein, players who are searching for form leading into the US Open will not find it at Shinnecock Hills, which exploits any imperfections in your game.
As I assess the options in this tier, Suber is clearly playing the best of all of them at the moment. Fresh off a T4 finish at last week’s RBC Canadian Open, he’s now finished inside the top-20 in three of his last four starts, leading in. His ball striking has been excellent over that stretch, so his ability to contend will come down to how consistently he can scramble when greens are inevitably missed in regulation.
Best of luck with your US Open golf pool picks!
Photo Credit: AP/Sue Ogrocki
