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We’re looking to start fresh and flush last week down the drain. It was a week where we couldn’t get anything going. We’ll try to start it off with a profitable result on Monday.
Today, we’re going with Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, and Chase Meidroth. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 75-312 (-1.63 units) *pending Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jac Caglianone
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, August 17
Bryce Harper Home Run
Bryce Harper came into Sunday’s action with a .256/.375/.495 slash with 25 home runs in 528 plate appearances. He has three homers in August so far, set for a matchup against Janson Junk.
The Marlins’ righty has a 4.15 xERA with a 1.23 HR/9. We’ve seen him allow two homers on three occasions this year. On top of that, Harper has had success against Junk. In five plate appearances, Harper has three hits and one home run.
With Junk being much worse vs. lefties like Harper (.354 wOBA) than righties (.273 wOBA), this feels like a strong play. Bet on Harper to hit No. 26 here. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Olson Home Run Odds
Matt Olson is having a terrific bounce-back season, slashing .264/.339/.546 with 35 home runs in 537 plate appearances. He’s got excellent batted ball metrics, including a 15.6% barrel rate.
He’s been mashing in August, already homering six times. I love the spot against Bailey Ober, who is putting up a 4.70 xERA and a 1.55 HR/9 this season. Lefties like Olson have a 1.88 HR/9 vs Ober, much better than righties (1.08 HR/9).
Olson has two career plate appearances against Ober, homering once with a .915 xwOBA. Considering how well Olson has been hitting, we’ll ride with him in this exploitable spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Chase Meidroth Home Run Odds
Chase Meidroth is currently slashing .280/.355/.419 with 12 home runs in 493 plate appearances. The 25-year-old has bumped his ISO from .067 from .139, so he’s having a but of a power surge.
He’s hitting well in August, homering three times so far. I like the matchup against Shota Imanaga. Meidroth has mashed lefties like Imanaga, putting up a .205 ISO.
On top of that, Meidroth has some familiarity with Imanaga, homering once in three plate appearances. With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Meidroth here. Risk 0.1 units.
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