Should You Bet on the Boston Bruins to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

When factoring in their level of play on the ice, the Boston Bruins nearly securing a spot in the playoffs is one of the bigger surprises of the season. Not only has their offense struggled with pressuring the net, but their defense has given them little to no support with their coverage, forcing the Bruins to play in highly volatile contests. Still, with just four games remaining in their schedule, the Bruins are one regulation win away from stamping their ticket to the postseason.

Boston Bruins to Win Eastern Conference?

Assuming the Bruins end the year in the same position they are in now, they will be locked into the first wildcard spot of the bracket, facing off against the Tampa Bay Lightning who are one of the two best teams in the East. A daunting matchup for the Bruins who lack the coverage that is needed to slow down the Lightning, fielding a back line who ranks near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

To make matters worse for the Bruins, their front line is incapable of keeping pace with the Lightning, residing in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals For. Even with David Pastrnak playing at a high level, the lack of support he receives from his linemates will allow the Lightning to shade their coverage towards him, lessening the width of his shooting lanes in front of the net.

Fortunately for the Bruins, Jeremy Swayman has been able to mask their struggles with his individual production in net, averaging 2.70 Goals Against per game and a .908 Save Percentage. Still, with his back line underwhelming in coverage, Swayman will be vulnerable to regression when the quality of the opponent ramps up, plummeting the Bruins chances of winning a seven game series.

If the Bruins are able to leap over the Montreal Canadiens in the division standings, then they would at least have a better opportunity to make it out of the first round, battling it out against the Buffalo Sabres who also grade out poorly in Expected Goals Against. This would also at least create the possibility of the Lightning getting upset in the first round, creating a far more favorable path for the Bruins.

Especially if the Carolina Hurricanes are unable to reach the Eastern Conference Finals, thrusting the Bruins up the oddsboard with the rest of the field at least possessing one red flag or another on either side of the ice. Unless the playoff picture drastically shakes up or the Bruins are able to elevate their level of play, then pass on them at their current odds to win the East.

Best Odds: Boston Bruins to Win Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins to Win Stanley Cup?

In the unlikely event the Bruins are able to make a run to the Stanley Cup, it’s tough to envision them pulling off one of the more miraculous feats, facing off against the likes of Colorado or Dallas who both possess clear advantages on both sides of the ice. Vegas and Edmonton are also daunting matchups for the Bruins who are incapable of slowing down their high powered front lines.

Shifting our attention back towards the Avs, their versatility will make it impossible for the Bruins to keep a defender near the vicinity of their shot attempts as they possess eight players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. With their front line scrambling their coverage, the width of their shooting lanes in front of Swayman will widen, making it tough for him to consistently wall them off.

If the Stars are able to upset the Avs, then the Bruins will find themselves outmatched on the other end, lacking the playmaking that is needed to break through the Stars suffocating back line. Since the start of the regular season, Dallas has excelled in coverage, fielding a unit who ranks well above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.

If the Bruins are going to be able to cap off their run, then they are in desperate need of the bracket breaking their way, drawing the likes of Nashville or Anaheim to help even the playing field. Both contenders have severely underwhelmed on defense this year, making it easier for the Bruins to match their output.

With their chances of winning the Stanley Cup heavily dependent on how the bracket breaks, pass on the Bruins to win the title. Even at their lofty odds, the hedge opportunities will be minimal, especially if they draw the Lightning in the first round.

Best Odds: Boston Bruins to Win Stanley Cup

Any Boston Bruins Players to Win Conn Smythe?

With Boston a severely longshot at best to win it all, Pastrnak would need to put together a dominant performance just to give them a fighting chance to rattle off a run, making him the clear cut favorite to win the Conn Smythe. The Bruins forward has been the focal point of their offense this season, averaging 0.40 Expected Goals and 3.45 Shots on Goal per game.

Swayman is also a viable option to add to the portfolio as the Bruins will need him to be flawless just to have a chance at competing with the upper tier competition in the East. If Swayman can neutralize the Lightning and Hurricanes front lines, then their own group will be able to keep it uncomfortably close on the scoreboard, increasing their chances of winning.

The harsh reality for the Bruins is that their lack of production on both sides of the ice will lead to an early exit, making them a clear pass in any sort of futures market. Even if they are able to avoid the Lightning and Hurricanes in the first round, they will still most likely need to go through them at some point, stopping their run dead in its tracks.

Photo Credit: AP/Jeffrey T. Barnes