Should You Bet on the Buffalo Sabres to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

After finishing near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings in 2025, the Buffalo Sabres have been able to round back into competitive form this season, tied for first with less than 10 games remaining. Their resurgence on offense has helped spark their turnaround, fielding a front line who resides in the top half of the board in most offensive metrics.

Buffalo Sabres to Win Eastern Conference?

With Buffalo just one win away from making the playoffs, you can count on the Sabres playing in the post season. Even if they fell hard back down to reality, the Sabres have done enough in the regular season to avoid a massive collapse, possessing a 16 point lead over the Ottawa Senators for the last wildcard spot in the wildcard standings.

Unfortunately for the Sabres, their run in the playoffs may be cut short as their defense has struggled to give them the production they need to be a well rounded contender, ranking near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. By allowing opposing offenses to generate high quality Shots on Goal, the Sabres are forced to play in high variance contests, lowering their chances of winning when the quality of opponent ramps up.

Speaking of quality of opponent, the Sabres path to the Stanley Cup would be formidable, most likely drawing the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round who are one of the more well rounded units in the league. Should they be able to get past the Lightning, then they would potentially face off against the Carolina Hurricanes who lead the league in Expected Goals For.

Even with their goaltending playing at a high level, both Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon would struggle to wall off a heavy volume of Shots on Goal, putting more pressure on their offense to keep them competitive. An unsustainable style of play when it comes to competing in the playoffs.

Unless Buffalo’s back line can get back up off the mat, then the Sabres are an immediate pass in the Eastern Conference futures market. Even with their offense capable of matching any output, their lack of production on defense will hold them back, making them vulnerable to an early exit.

Best Odds: Buffalo to Win Eastern Conference

Buffalo Sabres to Win Stanley Cup?

Should the bracket break their way and the Sabres are able to weave their way to the Stanley Cup, then they would need to be near flawless just to be competitive as they would most likely have to battle it out against the Colorado Avalanche or Dallas Stars in the finals. Both formidable units in their own right, sitting at the top of the oddsboard to win the title.

A matchup against the Avs would be very worrisome for the Sabres, having to contain an offense who rivals the Hurricanes in Expected Goals For in All Situations while fielding eight skaters who average over 0.25 Expected Goals per game. Their playmaking would stretch out the Sabres underwhelming coverage, opening up higher quality shooting lanes in front of the net.

While Luukkonen has been able to give the Sabres the protection the Sabres need to mask their struggles in coverage by averaging 2.58 Goals Against per game, the Avs relentless assault would force him to scramble across the crease, opening up larger gaps beside him. This would lower his chances of being able to make the save, digging the Sabres too deep into a hole for them to climb out of.

To make matters worse for Buffalo, negative regression would loom large over their offense with the Avs and Stars both ranking in the top-6 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With the Sabres lacking the versatility that is needed to break through their coverage, this will make it easier for their opposition to keep a defender near the vicinity of their shot attempts, lowering the quality of their Shots on Goal.

If the Sabres would have a chance of winning the Stanley Cup, then they would need to get paired with a team who mirrors their struggles, facing off against a back line who is incapable of protecting their net. The Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks both fit that mold, making the Sabres worth a bet on their series moneyline should they match up in the finals.

Best Odds: Buffalo to Win Stanley Cup

Any Buffalo Sabres Players to Win Conn Smythe?

When it comes to who could win the Conn Smythe award for the Sabres, Tage Thompson immediately stands out as he is the engine that drives their offense. Since the start of the regular season, Thompson has been a steady source of production, averaging 0.43 Expected Goals and 3.39 Shots on Goal per game.

If the Sabres are going to have any chance at making a deep run in the playoffs, then Thompson will need to continue to play at a high level, pulling defensive attention towards him to free up space for his linemates to exploit. Especially with his supporting cast lacking the aggression that is needed to break through a back line as no one outside of Thompson averages more than 3.00 Shots on Goal per game.

If Luukkonen is able to continue to give the Sabres the protection they need to be competitive, then he would also be an intriguing choice to win the Conn Smythe award. Still, with his back line incapable of giving him the coverage he needs to help wall of Shots on Goal at a consistent rate, then pass on the Sabres goalie for now and wait to add him later depending on who they face in the finals.

Best Odds: Tage Thompson to Win Conn Smythe +2800

Photo Credit: AP/Thien-An Truong