Should You Bet on the Edmonton Oilers to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

After losing to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals last year, the Edmonton Oilers have the opportunity to get their revenge this season, just one win away from locking up a spot in the playoffs. The Oilers high powered offense will look to carry them deep into the bracket, needing to mask a defense that has struggled to give them the production they need to be a well rounded contender.

Edmonton Oilers to Win Western Conference?

With Connor McDavid leading the charge, the Edmonton Oilers front line have been one of the more efficient units in the league, ranking in the top-6 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Even when receiving minimal support from their bottom two lines, the production the Oilers receive from their top talent helps keep them competitive.

Unfortunately for the Oilers, they can ill-afford to rely on just their top two lines in the playoffs, especially with the quality of their opponents ramping up in the later rounds. While they should skate by against the Utah Mammoth, negative regression looms large in the second round, most likely drawing the Vegas Golden Knights who rank second in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Speaking of Expected Goals Against, the Oilers struggles on defense have continued to be a thorn in their side this season, hovering near the middle of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Their inability to defend their net brings in a higher amount of variance into their contests, lowering their chances of winning.

With the Oilers back line struggling in coverage, Tristan Jarry has been unable to play at a competitive level, averaging 3.32 Goals Against per game and a .882 Save Percentage. With Connor Ingram dealing with an injury, Jarry will need to quickly round back into form in order for the Oilers to make a deep run in the playoffs.

If Jarry and Ingram are incapable of giving them the protection they need in net, it’s tough to envision the Oilers competing with the upper tier in the West. Even if they manage to skate past the Golden Knights in the second round, a Western Conference Finals matchup against the Colorado Avalanche would make it hard for you to hedge your wager, making them a pass in the futures market.

Best Odds: Edmonton Oilers to Win the Western Conference

Edmonton Oilers to Win Stanley Cup?

Not only do the Oilers need the bracket to break their way in the West just to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals, but they also need the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning to lose just to have a punchers chance at winning the title. Like the Avs, the Hurricanes and Lightning have been two of the more well rounded units in the league, ranking in the top-10 in Expected Goals For and in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Even with the Oilers front line playing at a very high level, their inability to slow down the Lightning and Hurricanes will keep them behind on the scoreboard while their own offense is bottled up by two suffocating defenses. Their lack of versatility will make it tough for them to create space from their back lines, fielding just four players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game. 

Worse yet for the Oilers, the disparity between their two goalies forces them to play in highly volatile contests, especially when Ingram’s legs start to give out the deeper they go in the playoffs. Once wear and tear rears its ugly head over the Oilers starting goalie, his sluggish movements across the ice will open up wider gaps beside him, improving the quality of opposing Shots on Goal.

If the Oilers are going to win the Stanley Cup, then they are in desperate need of playing the likes of Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Montreal, or Philadelphia. All Eastern foes who possess at least one glaring weakness on one side of the ice, evening the playing field in the Oilers favor who need to mask their own struggles on defense.

Still, barring an abundance of upsets, the Oilers path to the Stanley Cup Finals is too daunting, making them a pass at their current odds to win the title. If the Ducks dethrone Vegas in the first round and you already have a position on the Avs and Stars, then consider rounding out your portfolio with a small wager on the Oilers who should overwhelm the Ducks back line.

Best Odds: Edmonton Oilers to Win the Stanley Cup

Any Edmonton Oilers Players to Win Conn Smythe?

Even at his short odds, Connor McDavid is the clear top choice to win the Conn Smythe for the Oilers as he is the engine that drives their offense. Not only does he facilitate at a high rate, but he has also been dominant in his efforts of pressuring the net, averaging 0.54 Expected Goals and 3.77 Shots on Goal per game.

Leading the team in Expected Goals is Zach Hyman, McDavid’s linemate who benefits from his gravity by taking advantage of the extra space on the ice when opposing back lines are forced to shade their coverage. Unfortunately for Hyman, his production is too correlated to McDavid’s success, making it hard for him to grab the media’s attention for the award.

Normally a spot reserved for the goaltender, both Jarry and Ingram are a pass until they are able to quickly elevate their level of play. With no other viable contenders for the award, place a full unit on McDavid to win the Conn Smythe while keeping an eye on Hyman.

Photo Credit: AP/Godofredo A. Vásquez