Should You Bet on the Montreal Canadiens to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

After making a brief appearance in the playoffs last year, the Montreal Canadiens will look to build on their momentum this season, fielding a more potent offense to help contend with the top of the conference. Still, until their defense can give them the support they need to be a well rounded unit, the Canadiens are prone to making another early exit.

Montreal Canadiens to Win Eastern Conference?

After residing near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals last year, the Canadiens front line have been able to round back into dominant form, fielding a lineup who ranks eighth in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Cole Caufield’s consistency has played a major role in their resurgence, averaging 0.42 Expected Goals per game.

While their front line has been able to play at a high level, their lack of production on defense held them back, ranking well below league average in Expected Goals Against. With their back line incapable of holding their own in coverage, the Canadiens are forced to play in highly volatile contests, making it hard for them to string together their wins.

Fortunately for the Canadiens, Jakub Dobes has been able to mask their struggles in coverage with his high level of play in net, averaging just 2.69 Goals Against per game. If Dobes can continue to brush aside regression while walling off opposing Shots on Goal at a high rate, then the Canadiens odds of winning increases, especially if their offense continues to thrive.

In regard to their path to the Eastern Conference Finals, the Canadiens odds of making a run are heavily dependent on how they finish in the division standings. If they win the division, then they can avoid the Tampa Bay Lightning until the second round, drawing Boston instead who is a far inferior opponent. If the Lightning win the division, then the Canadiens would face off against the Buffalo Sabres, another favorable matchup against an underwhelming defense.

With the Canadiens chances of making a run heavily dependent on their placement, pass on them in the futures market and look to bet them on a per round basis. If the Canadiens draw the Lightning, then avoid backing them. If they get the Bruins or Sabres instead, then consider betting them on the series moneyline.

Best Odds: Montreal Canadiens to win Eastern Conference

Montreal Canadiens to Win Stanley Cup?

If the Canadiens are able to make a stunning run to the Stanley Cup, then expect their momentum to be halted there, most likely battling it out against the Colorado Avalanche who will have no issue with relentlessly attacking their net. With the Canadiens back line struggling in coverage, the Avs will have them spread thin, making it hard for Dobes to wall them off.

To make matters worse for the Canadiens, negative regression would loom large over their offense as the Avs back line would drastically reduce the quality of their Shots on Goal, fielding a group who ranks fifth in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. WIth the Canadiens incapable of matching their output, expect them to fall quickly behind on the scoreboard, digging themselves too deep into a hole to climb out of.

The Avs advantage in net would also help neutralize the Canadiens front line, possessing two stalwart goalies who they can interchange throughout the playoffs, preserving their legs for the later rounds. When fresh, Scott Wedgewood and MacKenzie Blackwood have been able to play at a very high level, ranking in the top-10 in average Goals Against per game.

If the Canadiens are going to be able to do the unthinkable and win the Stanley Cup, then they will need to draw a much more favorable opponent in the Finals. A matchup against the Anaheim Ducks or Los Angeles Kings would drastically improve their chances of winning it all, evening the playing field to their favor as both contenders possess at least one glaring weakness on one side of the ice.

WIth the Canadiens projected path to the Stanley Cup Finals too daunting on paper, pass on them to win it all as their lack of production on defense will be too much for them to overcome when their quality of opponent ramps up. If the bracket does miraculously break their way, then you can bet on them on the series moneyline, creating profitable opportunities depending how the series plays out.

Best Odds: Montreal Canadiens to win Stanley Cup

Any Montreal Canadiens Players to Win Conn Smythe?

Since the start of the regular season, Cole Caufield has been in a tier of his own when compared to his linemates, comfortably leading the team in Shots on Goal while generating 0.42 Expected Goals per game. With the Canadiens offense running through Caufield, he will garner a majority of the media’s attention, making him the favorite on the team to win the Conn Smythe.

Rivaling Caufield is Nick Suzuki, the team’s leader in Assists and in +/-, using his versatility to outperform his linemate in total Points. When aggressive, Suzuki has actually excelled at creating high quality scoring opportunities in front of the net, averaging 0.36 Expected Goals per game.

To help diversify your portfolio, also consider making a small wager on Dobes to win the award as his ability to mask their struggles in coverage will make or break their chances of winning. To help structure your card, place a half unit on Caufield and a quarter unit on Suzuki and Dobes, maximizing your chances of winning if the Canadiens make a run.

Photo Credit: AP/Mark J. Terrill