Should You Bet on the Utah Mammoth to win the 2026 Stanley Cup?

Quietly sneaking into the playoffs, the Utah Mammoth have been able to thrive since opening night, securing one of the two wildcard spots in the Western Conference. Issues in net aside, their high level of play on both sides of the ice helped them avoid playing in highly volatile contests, making it easier for them to string together enough wins to hold off the rest of the field.

Utah Mammoth to Win Western Conference?

With the likes of Colorado, Vegas, and Edmonton hogging the spotlight as the best in the West, the Utah Mammoth have gone under the radar, fielding a front line who ranks in the top-15 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their versatility helped them compete on a nightly basis, possessing six players who all average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.

On the other end, their back line has been just as productive, ranking above league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With both sides of the ice playing at a high level, the Mammoth are able to drastically reduce the amount of negative variance in their contests, increasing their chances of winning.

Heading into the playoffs, the Mammoth must address their issues in net if they want to rattle off a deep run in the bracket. Even though Karel Vejmelka is averaging just 2.72 Goals Against per game, negative regression looms large per his .898 Save Percentage, especially once the quality of their opponent ramps up in a seven game series.

To make matters worse for the Mammoth, Vejmelka is currently dealing with an injury, potentially forcing them to turn to Vitek Vanecek who is a sizable drop off in talent. In his 20 starts this season, Vancek is 5-12-3 while averaging nearly three Goals Against per game and a .883 Save Percentage. An unacceptable level of play for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations.

The Mammoth’s odds of winning the Western Conference Championship is also dependent on their placement in the bracket, making it vital they avoid the Avalanche in the first round who are projected to win the title per their current odds to hoist the Stanley Cup. If the Mammoth can draw the Golden Knights instead, then they will have a punchers chance of moving on, bottling up their front line who continues to fall down the board in Expected Goals For.

Best Odds: Utah Mammoth to win Western Conference

Utah Mammoth to Win Stanley Cup?

If the Mammoth can draw the Golden Knights in the first round and the Avs go down before the Western Conference Finals, then their chances of winning the Stanley Cup would skyrocket. With the Oilers and Stars both possessing at least one glaring weakness, the Mammoth would be able to exploit it, helping them pull away on the scoreboard and win the series.

Unfortunately for the Mammoth, they would be projected to battle it out against either Tampa Bay or Carolina in the Stanley Cup Finals, two top contenders who rank in the top-10 in Expected Goals For and in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their advantages on both sides of the ice would overwhelm the Mammoth, making it hard for them to compete.

Especially with their goaltenders incapable of bottling up the Lightning and Hurricanes front lines, digging them too deep into a hole for them to climb out of. Once wear and tear starts to affect Vejmelka’s legs, his sluggish movements would open up wider gaps in his net for them to exploit, lowering his chances of making the save.

If the Lightning and Hurricanes both go down, then Utah would be in a far more favorable position to win the title, drawing the likes of Ottawa, Pittsburgh, or Buffalo who all grade out equally the same or worse than the Mammoth in Expected Goals. In the off chance Buffalo or Philadelphia makes a run, then Utah would actually be listed as the betting favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

With their chances of winning the title heavily dependent on their placement in the West, pass on them in the futures market for now. If they get locked into a first round series against Vegas, then consider placing a small wager on them to win the Stanley Cup with intentions of hedging it in the later rounds if they are forced to play the Avs in the Western Conference Finals.

Best Odds: Utah Mammoth to win Stanley Cup

Any Utah Mammoth Players to Win Conn Smythe?

When it comes to betting on who will win the Conn Smythe for the Mammoth, plenty of names pop off the page, including Clayton Keller who led the team in points this season. Not only does Keller excel at facilitating, but he is also aggressive in his efforts of pressuring the net, averaging 0.32 Expected Goals and 2.78 Shots on Goal per game.

Speaking of Expected Goals, Dylan Guenther has been their most efficient player in regard to creating high quality scoring opportunities, averaging 0.35 Expected Goals per game. If Guenther can continue to score at a high rate, then the spotlight would shine brighter on him, making him the favorite to win the award.

Vejmelka is also worth a small wager to win the Conn Smythe as his production in net will dictate how far they can go. If the Mammoth goalie is able to brush aside regression, then his play in net would garner media attention, shooting him to the top of the oddsboard for the award. If you believe the Mammoth can make a run, then split your bet three ways and place each piece on Keller, Guenther, and Vejmelka.

Photo Credit: AP/John Locher