The best place to start is with the tabs, we have the default set to all, but you can work your way through each position. You are likely going to need this to be set to a specific scoring format, or fantasy site, which can be done above. Scoring formats and site specifics can change the fantasy points allowed and the rankings, so it is important to make sure you are getting the correct information that you need. If you are looking for the second half of the season, or from weeks eight through twelve, the weekly slider can help get the information you are looking for. It is important to have all these settings correct, otherwise, you could see data that is slightly off.
Going through the fantasy points allowed table, it will start with the defenses and the defensive rating on the left. The rating is our unique Lineups rating that is given based on various stats to show the true value of overall team defense. It is based on real production stats and not fantasy points allowed. Moving from left to right, you will see each position and a number underneath. This is the number of fantasy points allowed to that position. The rank will show you how that defense is at allowing fantasy points in comparison to the rest of the league. The overall numbers at the end will show you fantasy points as a total throughout the positions.
How To Read Fantasy Points Allowed Game Logs
If you are curious as to what fantasy points were allowed over a specific week, we have a team by team game log to break it all down. Once again you are going to want to make sure you have the settings and sliders turned to what it is exactly that you are looking for. You will see the same format, as above as well as the score and opponent. This is important because it can give you a greater understanding of the numbers above. Strength of schedule and the type of offenses a defenses face is going to tie into how fantasy points are allowed for that defense.
When looking at a game on an individual basis, you need to understand the factors that go into those numbers. It can also point you in the direction of some important trends. If a team is winning, they might allow more garbage time fantasy points because that opposing offense was trailing most of the game. There are going to be stories within a game for why things happened. If an injury occurred and you see just a big outlier of a number, then you might want to dig in and see why that happened.
Overall this is a great way to break down the numbers above and get a deeper understanding. The ranks will show where they are at for that week. You will be able to see improvements throughout the season and also when teams begin to struggle. If a team faces a strong of fantasy running backs that are very good, it might be no surprise to see them ranking low in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The same goes for quarterbacks, as not every schedule is going to be equal, and some times a defense is just going to be giving up fantasy points because of the volume going up against them and the game scripts that occur.
Why Sample Size Matters
In the world of football stats we have a smaller amount of games in comparison to other sports. In basketball, a player can average 15 shots a game over 82 games a season. In baseball, a player can get three at-bats per game over 162. Over the span of a few years, these players rack up a staggering amount of attempts or at-bats to help us gauge how consistent they are and their overall value because things can stabilize. In football that is tough to do, because for a player to reach 82 games, that is going to require five years of play. We also see numbers jump all over the place for football players. A running back will average 3.9 yards one year, 5.1 the next, and then 4.5 the year after. Those are three wildly different numbers when it comes to efficiency, and that leaves us trying to figure out what number is the true one.
There are so many moving parts in how those numbers come about. Did the offensive line play well that year, was there an injury, how good was the team's schedule or defense? Each year is going to be very different, and that is what makes stats and numbers so tricky for football. The same can be said for fantasy points allowed. These numbers do not stabilize over the course of a season, however, it can give us a good starting point during the season as to where teams struggle. However, a lot more information is going to be needed. You might wonder why the Vikings gave up big points to a wide receiver that week when they rank third against wide receivers. Did a cornerback get hurt that game, or were the Vikings well ahead forcing the opposing offense to throw more, there are a lot of different variables that go into things here.
Even the year-to-year numbers don’t exactly correlate with what is going to happen in the future. Teams are going to bolster their defense or lose key players over the offseason. The draft will also add new players to the defense. We will also see defensive coaching changes that could have a major role in changing the defensive formations and how players play on the defensive side. For example, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave up the 5th most fantasy points in 2018 to opposing running backs. In 2019, they gave up the second-fewest. This is a huge change, and additions to the staff and defensive line played a major part in that.
Overall it is best to understand why the fantasy points that were allowed in the past were the way they were before looking at this as just a future predictor. These numbers are going to be all over the place, especially early in the season. With the season having a lot of moving factors, you might have a defense be bad against the pass early on, but great in the second half. This could be due to injuries or how their schedule plays out. The schedule each season is very unbalanced. This is also different from other sports that have a fairly set schedule of games from year to year. Outside of the six divisional games, it is not the same each year.
Getting To The Bottom Of Why Teams Allow The Fantasy Points They Do
There are various reasons for why defenses give up fantasy points in bunches or stifle opposing positions. The obvious is that a defense just flat out is a bad defense. Their secondary could struggle, which is why positions like quarterbacks, tight ends, and wide receivers all have excellent fantasy point productions against them. If a defense excels against the run, they can make it tough on opposing running backs in the fantasy department. It is still key to do more research, but the obvious tends to stick out like a sore thumb. Like the 2019 Miami Dolphins, that was just a very bad defense overall and fantasy points were a given every week.
Offensive play styles also factor into why defenses all the fantasy production they do. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs have a potent offense that makes it tough for opposing offenses to run the ball against them. They are often playing keep up or from behind and that puts a big focus on them passing the ball way more. A defense that sees a lot of volume against them through the air is going to equal more fantasy points to the passing positions. Defenses that are on bad teams might see more running back volume against them because opposing offenses are playing ahead and running the ball in a higher volume.
Fantasy points are also going to come in various ways. A defense might allow a lot of fantasy points to running backs, but it is key to figure out how exactly they are doing that. Receiving backs might be getting the fantasy production against a specific defense in comparison to backs who need to get their numbers on the ground. A defense might give up more receptions to wide receivers, but not as many touchdowns. fantasy football would be too easy if we could just look at fantasy points allowed and plug our guys in. It is important to dig a little deeper, especially when you are trying to predict what happens in the future.
How Scoring Formats Dictate Fantasy Points Allowed Rankings
Scoring formats are going to matter just like anything else. You are going to have some scoring formats give you awards for bonuses, and also just the differing formats on how they factor in receptions. A defense that allows a lot of receptions to running backs is going to rank a lot differently in PPR leagues in comparison to standard formats. On DraftKings once a 100-yard mark is hit, they get a bonus, and the same goes for 300+ yards for passing. It is crucial to see those fantasy points factored in. Just like when evaluating a player, those receiving backs will have different sets of values in different positions. Teams that allow a lot of yardage and touchdowns are going to rank high across the board, but in standard leagues, those are the two scoring categories you look at the most.
Finding Positive And Negative Regression
When looking through team game logs and all the factors that go into fantasy points allowed, you can be ahead of the curve for what happens in future games. This is more about the defenses that are not as bad as their numbers look or vice versa. A bad defense is likely going to stay bad throughout the season. Now if there is a middling defense allowing a lot of fantasy production to opposing teams through the air, things could even out. The schedule plays a major part in this. Facing the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Ravens for quarterbacks is a lot different from facing the Jets, Redskins, and Broncos over the next three weeks after. This doesn’t mean Sam Darnold is going to throw for 22.5 fantasy points because the three before did so.
This can work the other way as well, where a defense might have faced three weak quarterbacks to make themselves look good against the pass. We also need to factor in injuries and the team personnel overall. Defenses that are missing key playmakers are going to have a tough time making up for it. We have seen defenses struggle for five weeks against the pass because they are missing a key cornerback, and once he returns things go back to normal. Volume is going to be another key factor, where if a defense faced an abnormal amount of rushing attempts through three weeks, and that doesn’t project to be the same, those fantasy numbers allowed will be a little different. There are always going to be patterns throughout the season, and being ahead of the curve is going to give you an edge for fantasy.