Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Aaron Jones dominated the touchdown department in 2019, scoring 19 total touchdowns. He finished as a top three back in all formats, as the overall touchdowns carried him most of the way. The touchdowns were important as the Green Bay Packers offense also used Jamaal Williams quite a bit in the offense. Green Bay’s rush offense was a lot more fantasy friendly in comparison to the pass offense. Even if we didn’t get some flukey seasons with injuries and production with the position, Jones was going to finish as a top five back with these types of numbers anyway. Heading into 2020, Jones was a pretty wide range of outcomes, especially with the looming touchdown regression. Overall Green Bay’s offensive moves are going to dictate how good I feel about drafting Jones in fantasy this season. He projects to go early second round, and be in that next auction tier for pricing as a running back.

2019 Recap

Aaron Jones had 19 total touchdowns last season, which was tied with Christian McCaffrey for the most among running backs. Jones did it on much fewer touches, and that is one of the overall concerns for his ADP in the 2020 season. Jones ranked 15th in rushing attempts, and 11th in targets among running backs. His fantasy numbers were driven by touchdowns. With that drop off headed for 2020, we can get into why Jones is a bit overvalued. Don’t expect these times of numbers, but Jones still is going to put up plenty of stats.

2020 Projections

Aaron Jones projects as a top 10 back again, but could certainly finish in the 12-15 range depending on how scoring shakes up. Overall he projects for double-digit touchdowns and that is what will have to carry him on some weeks. If PPR numbers go down due to the Packers not using their backs as much and with no increase in workload otherwise, Jones is a major regression candidate, but going from RB3 to an RB9 or RB10 mark still is something to note.

The league average TD% for rushes inside the 5 – 43%

Notable RBs who could see +/- regression:

Ezekiel Elliott: 10/18 56%
Aaron Jones: 13/24 54%
…
Joe Mixon: 5/18 28%
David Montgomery: 5/18 28%
Nick Chubb: 3/17 18%
…
Christian McCaffrey: 9/21 43%👀 pic.twitter.com/kYPmBHgBYD

— Golden Gate Fantasy Football (@goldengate_ff) March 28, 2020

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Early Second Round

Auction Price: $40

Within one of the first few picks of the second round, Aaron Jones is going off the board. This is a bit tough for me to stomach at this range, so I will be likely passing unless he falls to more the late second where I could get him on the beginning of a turn. Because he doesn’t have a monster workload in comparison to some of the others, I would need to bank on all those touchdowns coming back, and I am not a believer in that.

Floor

Aaron Jones has a decent floor, although if that floor season occurs, you won’t be happy with it at his ADP. 1,000 all purpose yards is still a strong floor for him, and 30 receptions is in the range of outcomes as well. If we want to look at touchdowns, 8-9 I would peg him at for how often he is used in the red zone and Green Bay being one of the better offenses to get into the red zone.

Ceiling

Overall we saw an extreme touchdown ceiling in 2019, and this was on pretty average rushing attempts as well. I wouldn’t bank on numbers like this again, but a more practical ceiling would have his total touchdowns around 15-16. So it is possible for big touchdown numbers to occur again. Because the rushing attempts won’t be there, and with Matt LaFleur talking about keeping backs fresh, the touchdown regression is likely going to be there. Because Jones isn’t a breakout yardage type of guy and needs to grind out some games, his yardage ceiling is lower.

Green Bay Packers Offense

We always tend to have higher expectations for the Packers offense, and on the ground they were very good. Through the air, it was league average. But with Adams missing a few games during the season and really no weapons otherwise, the Packers ran the ball. They averaged 25 rushes per game, and were league average in yards/rush, and about everything else besides touchdowns. Green Bay averaged 1.2 touchdowns per game on the ground.

The Packers running backs overall had the 6th most receptions, and my worry is that if they add weapons throughout the offseason, it would drop the workload of the backs in the passing game. This is still to be determined, so expect an edit once things are a bit more settled in terms of the roster.

Strength Of Schedule

Playing in the NFC North, there were a few poor rush defenses, but Green Bay was one of them. They will still have to face Chicago and Minnesota twice a year, who both ranked in the top half against the run. However, Jones went wild in both games against Minnesota, but struggled against Chicago. The touchdowns carried him in the second game. Two games against Detroit will be a plus matchup for Jones, even though Detroit was one of the games he didn’t find the end zone in. The Packers will have a pretty soft schedule this year for a team that won the division last year. They will take on the NFC South, which is a strong two games for Aaron Jones with Atlanta and Carolina struggling on the defensive side last season. The Panthers were especially bad against the run. Tampa Bay and New Orleans both offered up stout run defenses.

Green Bay will play the AFC South as well. Jacksonville ranked 31st against the run last season, and that team is in shambles from top to bottom. Houston ranked 22nd, while Indy ranked 19th. I would expect the Colts to be a lot better defensively, and overall they didn’t allow much fantasy production to running backs anyway last season. They will face the 49ers and Eagles being first place teams themselves, and SF showed some vulnerability at times against the run last season, but still ranked 11th. Philadelphia was in the top ten. There is an up and down few games, but not one to discourage me if Jones falls a few spots close to his ADP.