Davante Adams was a let down for his ADP and auction value last season, which was partially due to the turf toe injury he suffered that caused him to miss four games. When Adams returned he saw double digit targets in all but one game. He also scored five touchdowns in the final six games of the season. The Green Bay Packers offense has had a pretty abysmal receiving core and tight end situation the last few years and so far this offseason they have cut some dead weight but have only added Devin Funchess. One of the top reasons why Adams is destined for a big year is that he will continue to see monster volume.
Missing four games in 2019, Davante Adams finished as WR29 in PPR formats. Adams also ranked 14th in targets, and 26th in receiving yards. When healthy, he averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game, which was 11th ahead of Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, and Stefon Diggs. The turf toe had him out a few weeks, but when he played it was the high volume that has been there his entire career. Even diving into the postseason he had over 290 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the two games.
Davante Adams projects as a top three wide receiver this season as his overall volume should push his reception numbers close to 100 if he can deliver a more efficient season. Even if his catch numbers are more in line with what we have seen, the yards and touchdowns won’t see a huge hit. Adams has been one of the more consistent touchdown scorers which is why he ranks as one of the top fantasy wideouts. With the heavy volume, a healthy season will put him in line with these types of numbers.
Absurd stat of the day:
If you took Davante Adams’s WORST fantasy game from 2018 and extrapolated his stats from that game into a full 16-game season, he still would’ve finished last season as a WR1.
— FF_Kyle (@DynastyFF_KyleM) July 29, 2019
ADP & Auction Value
ADP: First Round
Auction Price: $48
No surprise to see Davante Adams as still a top pick, and will be one of the first few wide receivers off the board. Adams can easily get back to 2018 type numbers, and overall with his floor and ceiling is a strong first round pick. Adams is also one of those receivers who scores well across any scoring format because of his projected touchdown numbers and overall yards.
When we look at many first round picks, it is because of their floor. Even in a season where Adams missed four games, he finished inside the top 30 in scoring and had nearly 1,000 yards. He averaged 6.9 receptions per game and had five touchdowns as well. Adams has been relatively healthy in his career, with more of a fluke injury in 2019. Averaging 12 yards per reception in his career, and 40 touchdowns over the last four seasons, Adams brings a strong floor to the table.
Davante Adams has seen over 100 targets in four straight seasons, even with him missing four games last year. While he isn’t the most efficient in terms of his hands, this is one of those cases where it doesn’t matter because he produces anyway. In 2018 he put it all together with the yards and touchdowns. He had three seasons over ten touchdowns, and his touchdown numbers can range around 13-15 in a ceiling year. If there are more games where the Packers offense needs to keep the foot on the pedal, Adams could break 1,300 yards again. He has one of the higher fantasy football ceilings.
Green Bay Packers Offense
Green Bay led a lot of games last season, and overall the offense wasn’t forced to do too much. They were also able to rely on their running backs quite a bit, which helped make up for the absence of Adams and a very lackluster receiving core around him. The Packers averaged 23.6 points per game last season, and that was 14th in the league. For the most part they were closer to average than the offenses ahead of them. They averaged 236 passing yards per game, and threw 59.8% of the time, which ranked 16th in the league. Adams missed four games during the season, and still had 22.2% of the team targets. He had 27% of the team targets in 2018. Adams is going to be the focal point of this offense again, and his volume will likely be inside the top five of targets as long as he stays healthy.
Strength Of Schedule
The benefit of being a WR1 on a team is that matchups don’t particularly matter when all is said and done. The volume is going to carry you, and that especially works for Davante Adams given the fact the Packers still have no solidified a WR2 or tight end around him. Yes, they signed Devin Funchess, but that isn’t going to take away any sort of volume from Adams. But looking at the schedule for Adams, the NFC North got a little bit easier with Darius Slay out of the division, although Adams will still see them because Green Bay faces Philadelphia. Minnesota saw a drop off in Xavier Rhodes, and he is now out in Indy. Minnesota will likely addressing some secondary needs, but Adams will have an advantage over any rookie. The same goes for Detroit, even though they are likely to get the top corner in the draft.
Green Bay will take on some poor pass defenses this season, as they face Atlanta, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Houston. They also should be in some shootouts against the Saints and the Buccaneers. Houston ranked 26th against the pass, and the offseason moves have not gone to show that will change. Atlanta had some defensive injuries, but overall Adams should still be a favorite in this matchup. Tennessee and Jacksonville ranked 21st and 22nd against the pass, and the Jaguars shipped away their best corner, again. Carolina’s defense is going to be extremely bad this season, and both against the run and the pass. However the offense should still be firing away which will create a lot of shootouts.
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