Travis Kelce Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

Travis Kelce put up another TE1 season in his career, and has now gone over 1,000 receiving yards in four straight seasons. He has 23 touchdowns over the last three years, and continues to be the first tight end off the board in fantasy football. It helps that he plays within a Kansas City Chiefs offense that is one of the top fantasy teams overall. Patrick Mahomes uses Kelce at a high rate and looks his way, and despite all the weapons they have, Kelce’s role in the offense is always safe. He has also been one of the more durable players, playing in 95 games since 2014. He only missed one game during that span back in 2017. If you want Kelce on your fantasy teams, you will have to pay a premium price, but him alongside a few others have massive advantage over the rest of the position.

2019 Recap

It was another strong season for Travis Kelce, who went for over 1,200 yards for the second season in a row. His touchdowns sat at just five, which was disappointing in comparison to the 18 combined he had in the 2017 and 2018 season. Kelce saw 136 targets, and he has been over 100 targets in five straight seasons. He finished as TE1 in PPR scoring, and that was even with Darren Waller joining the party and still the usual names rivaling him for his spot. Kelce kept the train on moving and there is more to come.

2020 Projections

Travis Kelce projects to be the top tight end come the end of the season, as he was last season as well. Kelce is a PPR king at the position, but you pay the premium price for him. His projected receptions sit over 90 again, and he is over 1,000 yards of course. The touchdowns are not something he dominates in every year, but he projects for around 5-6 this season. There are a lot of tight ends who project around the same numbers. Kelce and George Kittle are neck and neck in terms of fantasy production of late, and project for similar numbers.

Travis Kelce’s fantasy finishes (PPR) over the last four years:

2019 – TE1
2018 – TE1
2017 – TE1
2016 – TE1

Kelce has now gone over 800 yards in six seasons, which is tied for the 4th-most all-time by a TE. Tony Gonzalez holds the record (13 seasons with 800+ yards).

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) January 14, 2020

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Second/Third Round

Auction Price: $25

Tight end is such a volatile position when it comes to the number of names that produce big points. The one consistent has been Travis Kelce being an absolute fantasy stud. Because of that, he is generally the first name off the board when it comes to tight end, and we have seen him go as high as the first round at times. It is tough to say he has any sort of value because this is more about how you are building your team. I do think there are names a few rounds later that you can grab that have much better value.

Floor

With the consistent targets that Travis Kelce continues to get, the floor is very high. It is why he is the first tight end drafted each season. Since Patrick Mahomes has became the starter he has caught 200 receptions. There were a few games with Matt Moore mixed in, but overall Kelce has been a PPR monster. Even if the touchdowns are not there, he has a 1,100 yard floor and over 85 receptions. Five touchdowns seems to be a reasonable floor for him, even though we would want some more out of him.

Ceiling

The touchdown department is where we can talk about his ceiling. In 2017 he had eight and in 2018 he had ten. Outside of those two seasons he has posted nine total touchdowns. Those numbers are not anything to write home about. There were two tight ends last season that stood out in touchdowns, Mark Andrews with ten, and Jared Cook with nine. Kelce hitting his ceiling numbers will need to post similar receptions and yards, but find the end zone eight or more times.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense

After writing up the other Chiefs studs on offense, I will continue to hammer the point that this team is just far and above better than most offenses. It starts with the talent on the field, but a good part of it is from the coaching staff being able to make best of the player’s strengths. This team averaged 29.9 points per game last season, and averaged 384.3 yards per game. They were one of the best in the league, ranking top five in both categories. The Chiefs also averaged 3.5 touchdowns per game. Kansas City threw 61% of the time, and completed 65% of passes. They averaged the fourth most passing yards per game. Kelce dominated red zone targets with 22, and that number should continue. He saw 25% of the overall targets, with 147 total.

Strength Of Schedule

The Kansas City Chiefs will play a first place schedule of course, and will face some top teams around the league. Within their own division, Travis Kelce already has two tremendous matchups against the Las Vegas Raiders, who allowed the second most fantasy points per game to tight ends last season. The Raiders have struggled there for quite some time, and hard to see that changing. The Chargers and Broncos limited damage for the most part against tight ends, but Kelce has averaged 6.5 receptions and 86.2 yards per game against the Broncos in his career. He also has four touchdowns. The Chargers have been the team where he has struggled the most within the division.

Outside of the division there are some great matchups against the Texans and Panthers. Tampa Bay struggled against opposing tight ends last season and overall Kelce is a mismatch for most defenses. We will need to see how teams adjust of course as they can quickly change tune for being a team to be picked on with tight ends. Hard to get too nit picky with a schedule for one of the top tight ends in the league. He is a mismatch against most and this Chiefs offense is just built differently.