2026 NBA Play-In Tournament Futures Market Odds, Analysis & Predictions

By Kody Malstrom | Apr 13, 2026, 10:29am

Since the NBA expanded the playoff structure to 10 teams in 2022, the end of the regular season has featured some close races and intriguing matchups.

This year, the Eastern Conference is tight from seeds 5-10 with those teams battling to stay out of the play-in and earn a true playoff spot. The Western Conference has a bit of separation between the Minnesota Timberwolves (44-28) in sixth and the four teams in the play-in picture, but those teams are fighting for advantages in the play-in and to potentially avoid a first-round matchup with the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

Which brings up the question, can any of the play-in contenders in either conference win a first-round playoff series?

DraftKings Sportsbook is one of the first to offer -200 odds on that wide-sweeping proposition, as well as longer odds on any play-in team to make the conference finals (+275), the NBA Finals (+850), or even win the title (+3000).

Odds are widely available on which teams will make the Eastern Conference play-in field out of six candidates. Fewer odds are available for the Western Conference since the four teams (Suns, Clippers, Warriors, Blazers) are pretty much locked in.

Let’s go through the candidates to make a rare Cinderella run from a position as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed in either conference, if any of these teams navigate the NBA Play-in Tournament.

2026 NBA Play-In Tournament Futures Markets

Charlotte Hornets Play-In Odds (-800)

Bettors looking for a Cinderella story out of the play-in candidates might be thinking primarily of a Charlotte Hornets team that has been red hot since the middle of January. Charlotte (37-34) is 24-9 since Jan. 10 with the best net rating (+11) and offensive rating (120.9) in the NBA during that span.

Meanwhile, top-seeded Detroit (51-19) has sputtered with Cade Cunningham (lung) in danger of missing time early in the playoffs, so there is a chance Charlotte could have shorter odds than usual to win a first-round series over Detroit in a potential matchup. ESPN’s Power Index gives Charlotte a 21.4% chance to make the ECF Semifinals with a first-round series win.

Philadelphia 76ers Play-In Odds (-475)

On the other side of the coin from the Hornets, we have an injury-riddled 76ers squad that is struggling down the stretch. While Basketball-Reference.com gives the Hornets a 3.2% chance to win the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia (39-32) is only getting a 0.2% chance despite sitting in the No. 7 spot in the East as of March 23.

With Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Kelly Oubre Jr. injured, the Sixers are projected at around 22% to finish as the No. 9 or No. 10 seed. Paul George should return from suspension when eligible on March 25, but the Sixers have fallen off a cliff without Embiid and Maxey. However, if they get both of those guys back in time for the first round of the playoffs, the Sixers could be a tough matchup for the top seeds in the East.

Atlanta Hawks Play-In Odds (-240)

In a smaller sample size than the Hornets, the Hawks have come on strong lately to become one of the better teams in the East. Atlanta is 13-2 since the All-Star Break against a weaker schedule, but advanced metrics showcase massive potential for this athletic and deep team. The Hawks (39-32) are right behind the Hornets with a 20.3% chance to win a first-round series and make the conference semifinals.

Miami Heat Play-In Odds (-400)

Miami has been hot since the All-Star break with some impressive results, as well as some puzzling losses. The Heat still hasn’t put a consistent starting lineup on the floor for major minutes, but could gel at the right time under playoff veteran Eric Spoelstra. Currently ninth in the East at 38-33, Miami is projected to climb to 7th according to some projections. The Heat and Boston Celtics have had plenty of playoff battles in the past and they could wind up facing off again.

Los Angeles Clippers Play-In Odds (n/a)

After a terrible start to the year, the Clippers have become one of the best teams in the NBA with Kawhi Leonard returning to MVP form. Tyronn Lue is recognized as one of the best coaches in the sport and the front office made moves to acquire Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin in February, giving Leonard a ton of help on the offensive end.

None of the Western Conference play-in candidates are expected to beat the juggernaut Thunder or Spurs in a first-round series, but the Clippers (18.5%) have the best chance according to ESPN’s Power Index

Golden State Warriors Play-In Odds (n/a)

With a 2-10 record over their last 12 games as of March 23, the Warriors (33-38) are backing into the play-in field and hoping to get Steph Curry (knee) back healthy enough to make a run. Curry, Draymond Green, and head coach Steve Kerr have tons of playoff experience, but there isn’t much evidence that this supporting cast can hang with the top seeds in the Western Conference, if they’re able to navigate the play-in from the No. 10 seed.

Projections at Basketball-Reference.com give the Warriors a 72.4% chance to be the 10th seed in the play-in and a 0.1% chance to win the Western Conference from that position. ESPN only gives the Dubs a 0.9% chance to win a first-round series.

2026 NBA Conference Finals MVP Market

If you believe any of these teams have a chance to win a couple of playoff series and make the conference finals, you can get even longer odds on their star player winning MVP in that series.

Kawhi Leonard is the most appealing candidate to shock the playoff field and lead his squad to the NBA Finals considering he’s getting odds at DraftKings to be named WCF MVP. There are no other legitimate candidates on a Clippers team that has played up to its competition over the past two months. The usual suspects, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic , have the shortest odds to win WCF MVP, but Victor Wembanyama is right there with the Spurs surging up the standings thanks to his dominant two-way play.

Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are both getting +4500 odds to win ECF MVP at DraftKings. That duo has split work pretty evenly when healthy this season, so it’s hard to predict which player would get the award if the 76ers are able to make a miraculous run. The Celtics duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are atop the odds board at DK with Jalen Brunson , Donovan Mitchell , and Cade Cunningham trailing as the leaders of their respective squads.

2026 NBA Finals MVP Market

Could the Thunder become the first repeat NBA champion in seven years? Oddsmakers are giving them a great shot with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander listed as the prohibitive favorite to win consecutive Finals MVP awards. Wembanyama is ahead of Jokic in this market. Brown and Tatum are the leaders from the ECF with equal +1200 odds.

Tyrese Maxey has the shortest odds of any player on a play-in team, followed by Embiid and then LaMelo Ball . Again, none of the teams in either conference have a great shot to win multiple rounds and even make the finals, but the Clippers seem to have the most potential, and Kawhi Leonard is a massive longshot to win NBA Finals MVP, something he’s already done twice in his prolific career.

Photo Credit: AP/Tony Gutierrez

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.