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The AFC Championship Game is here, as the New England Patriots face the Denver Broncos for a chance to play in the Super Bowl. Below are our favorite Broncos vs. Patriots anytime touchdown picks for Sunday’s game at Mile High.
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AFC Championship Anytime Touchdown Picks: Patriots vs Broncos (Sunday, January 25)
Unfortunately, the Broncos will be without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix, but they still have their defense and talented skill position players. It’s not ideal to be without Nix, but there’s enough in place for Jarrett Stidham to win his first start in several seasons.
The Patriots are healthy but carry the burden of expectations. Going against a backup quarterback should make things easier, but there’s also little to no tape on Stidham to help New England game plan. It should be an interesting matchup and, most importantly, a game with more than a few six-pointers. That means plenty of chances for us to win some anytime touchdown scorer bets. Let’s sift through the odds, locate value, and find some winners!
The total sits at 42.5, and the line for total touchdowns is 4.5 juiced to the over. These numbers are close to average for what we normally see in these markets. The defenses for both teams have been lauded, but I think they’re overrated. The New England Patriots played two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL the last two weeks.
This week, they’ll play against arguably the best offensive line in the league. That should make it tougher for the Patriots to control the run game, which puts more pressure on their secondary. The Denver Broncos’ defense has put up great numbers, but often against poor quarterbacks and poor offenses. Drake Maye and the Patriots are more talented than most of the units the Broncos have faced all season. I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball and get it across the goal line. Let’s make some money betting on who is going to score those touchdowns.
Patriots vs. Broncos: Anytime Touchdown (ATD) Odds
| Anytime Touchdown Scorer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +110 |
| RJ Harvey | +120 |
| TreyVeon Henderson | +165 |
| Hunter Henry | +190 |
| Stefon Diggs | +210 |
| Courtland Sutton | +240 |
| Drake Maye | +280 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | +280 |
| Kayshon Boutte | +310 |
| Marvin Mims | +375 |
Patriots vs. Broncos: First Touchdown Odds
| First Touchdown Scorer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | +600 |
| RJ Harvey | +700 |
| Hunter Henry | +950 |
| TreyVeon Henderson | +1000 |
| Stefon Diggs | +1000 |
| Drake Maye | +1200 |
| Kayshon Boutte | +1200 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | +1400 |
| Courtland Sutton | +1400 |
Broncos-Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks: Hunter Henry (+190)
Similar to the New England Patriots, the Denver Broncos have been good against all skill position groups, but teams have had success using their tight ends to score touchdowns. When looking at the roster for the Patriots, one tight end stands out over all others.
Hunter Henry has the second-most targets, most red zone targets, and the most end zone targets of any pass catcher. He’s developed a great relationship with Drake Maye and should be a key part of New England’s game plan against Denver. At these odds, Hunter Henry anytime touchdown scorer is well worth a wager.
Patriots vs. Broncos Anytime Touchdown Picks: Evan Engram (+525)
I’d like to pick a running back for the Denver Broncos, but the current prices don’t offer much value. If J.K. Dobbins is activated from injured reserve to play in this game, I might bet on him. For now, the best bet on the board is Denver’s top tight end, Evan Engram.
The defense for the New England Patriots has been good at stopping opposing running backs and wide receivers, but opposing tight ends have had success scoring against them. The Patriots are bottom 10 in touchdowns allowed to that position, and new quarterbacks often target tight ends more often. They run routes in the middle of the field and out of play action, which tend to be easier passes to complete.
The Broncos use a few different tight ends, but Evan Engram is the most talented and plays the most snaps. At these odds, I’ll bet on Evan Engram as an anytime touchdown scorer.
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