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Sunday of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs kicks off with the New England Patriots hosting the Houston Texans. Both defenses held their opponents without a touchdown last week, but this matchup presents a very different challenge. Instead of facing an aging quarterback with limited mobility, the Texans will now go up against Drake Maye, one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league. Maye also excels at locating receivers downfield while under pressure.
The Patriots, meanwhile, face a Texans offense with a stronger offensive line, more explosive skill-position talent, and a quarterback who has not been sacked at an alarming rate. This game is unlikely to be the highest-scoring matchup of the weekend, but there will be touchdowns, which means opportunities to cash in on anytime touchdown scorer bets. Let’s break down the odds, identify value, and find some winners.
NFL Divisional Round Touchdown Picks: Texans vs Patriots (Sunday, January 18)
The total is set at 40.5, with the line for total touchdowns at 4.5. These numbers are lower than average and among the lowest of the postseason. That comes as little surprise. The Houston Texans boast one of the NFL’s best defenses, while the New England Patriots feature a unit that ranks around league average but has improved noticeably since Milton Williams returned last week.
The Patriots may also catch a break if Nico Collins, the Texans’ top wide receiver, is unable to play as he recovers from a concussion suffered Monday night. The good news is that Houston still has a strong rushing attack and enough pass-catching depth to find the end zone. On the other side, the Patriots offense has the tools to score even against elite defenses. I am not expecting fireworks, but I do expect at least a few trips to the end zone. Let’s make some money betting on who scores those touchdowns. Below is the full odds board, followed by my best bets.
Click any odds below to place a bet. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
Texans at Patriots: Anytime Touchdown (ATD) Odds
Texans at Patriots: First Touchdown Odds
NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Kayshon Boutte
Scoring touchdowns against the Houston Texans is difficult, but when teams do find success, it often comes via explosive plays down the field. Houston has allowed just 1.9 touchdowns per game this season, and many of those scores have come on passes or runs of 20 or more yards.
Drake Maye throws one of the better deep balls in the league and has the athleticism to avoid Houston’s pass rush long enough to let routes develop. That sets up opportunities for his favorite downfield target, Kayshon Boutte. With an average depth of target of 16.9 yards, Boutte is frequently well beyond the secondary when the ball comes his way. If Maye is going to stretch the defense, Boutte is the best option to do it. At this price, Kayshon Boutte as an anytime touchdown scorer is a strong value.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks: Dalton Schultz
The New England Patriots have been one of the league’s strongest run defenses all season, particularly with Milton Williams on the field. That should force the Houston Texans to lean more heavily on the passing game, even with Nico Collins likely sidelined.
In that scenario, Dalton Schultz projects as C.J. Stroud’s top target. Schultz ranks second on the team in targets and red zone targets, and third in end zone targets this season. He is Houston’s most reliable pass catcher and the receiver Stroud appears most comfortable throwing to in scoring situations. At these odds, Dalton Schultz as an anytime touchdown scorer is well worth a wager.
Good luck with your NFL touchdown picks and the rest of your bets for the NFL Playoffs.
