2026 3M Open Odds: Four Longshots & PGA Tour Golf DFS Picks
The PGA Tour returns to the United States, as many of the game’s best converge at TPC Twin Cities for the 2026 3M Open. This event has crowned its fair share of longshot winners recently, with each of its last three champions – Kurt Kitayama, Jhonattan Vegas, and Lee Hodges – closing at longer than 50/1 pre-tournament outright odds. Will we see another surprise longshot winner in the Twin Cities at the end of this week?
The formula to score at TPC Twin Cities is a clear one. The importance of preceding short game class is cast aside almost entirely at this event. Instead, it is the best ball strikers in the field who possess above-average driving distance that have risen to the top year over year. There are many sleepers who fit that profile in the 2026 3M Open field.
We’ll look to dig for some diamonds in the rough in this article ahead of the 3M Open.
3M OPEN ODDS
3M OPEN INTRODUCTION
TPC Twin Cities is your quintessential TPC layout. It features a steady mix of birdie opportunities on short par 4s, reachable par 5s, and stadium-style par 3s to keep the crowds engaged. Water hazards are threatening throughout, so Bogey Avoidance and control OTT will be at a premium here. As a 7,431-yard par-71, length is an advantage, and its oversized greens render SG: ARG almost completely inconsequential.
The 3M Open was added to the Tour rotation in 2019. TPC Twin Cities went through a renovation project following the 2018 3M Championship to adapt the course and present more of a challenge to modern Tour players. That project primarily consisted of pushing tees back. It added nearly 300 yards in length and expanded water hazards to pose more of a persistent threat.
As a result, we’ve seen this new layout reward the best total drivers who control their misses, avoid hazards, and position themselves to attack pins on large, receptive greens. Moderate winning scores of -17 and -15 in the last three years make TPC Twin Cities more than a pure birdie-fest. In short, TPC Twin Cities is a ball-striker’s paradise, rewarding in-form drivers and diminishing the importance of short game skill.
Read my 2026 3M Open preview for a deeper dive into the course. Let’s get to our 2026 3M Open picks, focusing on longshots and PGA Tour golf sleepers for your DFS lineups.
FINDING VALUE IN GOLF DFS PICKS: 3M OPEN
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At TPC Twin Cities, Recent Form, SG: APP, and Event History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a golf DFS picks perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of Comp Course History, SG: OTT, and SG: Ball Striking. These areas have been of particular importance since the 3M Open joined the PGA Tour schedule in 2019. It has consistently allowed the best ball-strikers to thrive, regardless of the state of their short game leading in.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf Fantasy picks and longshots for 2026 3M Open odds. Stats pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted.
Jordan Smith
Jordan Smith is your prototypical fit for TPC Twin Cities, and slots in perfectly as a comp player to those who have won before him at this event, like Kurt Kitayama, Lee Hodges, Jhonattan Vegas, Cameron Champ, and Tony Finau. Each are reliable ball-strikers who possess above-average driving distance and can confidently lean on their driver as the strength of their game to attack this course with bold and aggressive lines off the tee. He is one of just three players in this field rank top-25 in SG: OTT, Driving Distance, and SG: APP.
Leading into this week, Smith has sustained excellent form, ranking top-10 in SG: T2G over his last 36 rounds. While putting is not his strong suit, he’s proven he can contend whenever he is able to putt to field-average. He’s now finished in the top 20 in three of his last four starts, including a T18 finish at last week’s Open Championship where he ranked top-10 in the field in SG: Putting. Putting tends to be a crapshoot at TPC Twin Cities, but considering Smith’s consistency all season from tee-to-green, it’s encouraging to see him build momentum on the greens now too.
Michael Brennan
At this early stage off his career, Michael Brennan’s game compared almost identically to Cameron Champ’s. As such, I’m going to look Brennan’s way whenever we return to a course like TPC Twin Cities, where Champ has enjoyed much success. Like Champ, Brennan is one of the most powerful drivers on the PGA Tour, feasting on every driver-heavy course he’s run through in his first full season on Tour. An aggressive, driver-heavy approach served him well in his PGA Tour debut, winning the Bank of Utah Championship comfortably.
Brennan is the best driver in this field by a significant margin, and in addition to ranking No. 1 in SG: OTT, he also ranks 4th in SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds. That is the formula for success at TPC Twin Cities, which rewards elite off-the-tee play more than any other skillset. It’s been a boom-or-bust season for Brennan so far, but he seems to be settling into his own now, with five made cuts over his last six starts. That includes a T6 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the only instance over the last three months in which he’s gained strokes putting. TPC Twin Cities has proven to be a course where lesser putters have been able to correct their issues, and if that’s the case this week for Brennan, we know the rest of his game will be ready to attack.
William Mouw
Continuing the trend of great ball strikers who’ve been held back by a cold putter, Mouw has already proven that his game translates at TPC Twin Cities, finishing T7 in his 3M Open debut last year. The 2025 ISCO Championship winner will ride some positive momentum into Minnesota once again this week, coming off of a T10 finish at this year’s ISCO Championship in his most recent start. Mouw’s iron game is seriously thriving at the moment, ranking top-10 in the field in SG: APP in each of his last two starts at the ISCO Championship and John Deere Classic.
He’s a great profile fit for TPC Twin Cities, ranking 7th overall in my model. That is a credit to ranking top-10 in SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, and Comp Course History. Considering his strong recent form, great course fit, and proven course history, Mouw checks all the boxes I’m looking for this week, and will be a popular pick in fantasy formats for that reason.
Aaron Wise
The comeback tour is in full swing for Wise, who has returned to the PGA Tour with a head full of steam after taking a sustained break from the game for mental health reasons. If you haven’t been monitoring opposite field events closely, you may have missed the heater Wise is riding into Minnesota, as he’s finished T3 and T15 in his last two starts at the ISCO Championship and Corales Championship. While it may be against lesser competition, these are two venues that emphasize a driver-heavy approach and reward players with plus driving distance. In that regard, TPC Twin Cities is an ideal venue to keep this form going.
Over the course of his career, Wise has not been the best putter, but it’s been the ball-striking that has carried him. His putting has looked better in recent weeks, though, and TPC Twin Cities continues to prove to be the exception to the rule, where lesser putters are able to hold their own. Wise is a longshot to win, but he’s playing with confidence now and has legitimate top-20 upside for this price.
Best of luck if you bet or play any of these golf DFS picks for the 3M Open!
Photo Credit: REUTERS
