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In just the second year of his career, Drake Maye has been able to turn the New England Patriots back into a Super Bowl contender while nearly winning the MVP award. With back Maye under center while surrounded by a revamped group of wideouts, the Patriots are expected to build on their momentum in 2026 and secure their second straight division title.
Locked into a two horse race with the Patriots, the Buffalo Bills re-tooled offense will look to pick up from where they left off, challenging the Super Bowl runner ups as the slight betting favorites to win the division. Every bit of their production on offense will be needed in order to mask their inefficiencies on defense, a glaring thorn in their side that will force them to play in highly volatile contests throughout the regular season.
2026 AFC East Odds
Favorable schedule aside, the Patriots were able to play at a very high level last season in large part of Maye’s production at QB. Maye wasn’t just great, he was elite across the board, leading the league in EPA per play and in CPOE while ranking in the top-10 in Bard Throw Percentage and in Air Yards/Rec. While his Pressure to Sack Ratio was certainly alarming, Maye was still able to thrive when in a clean pocket and challenge Matthew Stafford for the MVP award.
With A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs in the fold, the Patriots will be able to take a step forward with their production on offense, a unit who ranked in the top-5 in Off DVOA and in Success Rate. Their running back duo of Rhamondre Stevenson and TreyVeon Henderon also helped keep the Patriots ahead of sticks, hovering near the top of the board in Yards Over Expected per Attempt.
Even though the Bills certainly have all the tools to match up with the Patriots on offense, their defense still has lingering question marks looming over them. Primarily in the front seven, a group who struggled to stop the run last year, finishing 31st in Run Defense EPA per Play. While they did address their defense in the offseason, Bradley Chubb struggled to recapture his 2023 dominant form while fresh off of a devastating injury, leaving the Bills vulnerable in the middle should he continue to underwhelm.
The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins on the other hand have their eyes set towards the 2027 NFL Draft, a class full of QBs who ooze star caliber potential. Their projected win totals reflect their poorly constructed rosters, having a better chance of securing the first overall pick rather than winning the AFC East. With the Patriots projected to finish with the same record as the Bills while listed at a far more favorable price, place a wager on the reigning AFC East champions to win the division for the second year in a row.
Best Bet: New England Patriots
2026 AFC East MVP Contenders, Odds
- Josh Allen (QB, Bills)
- Drake Maye (QB, Patriots)
- Malik Willis (QB, Dolphins)
- Geno Smith (QB, Jets)
- James Cook (RB, Bills)
- De’Von Achane (RB, Dolphins)
- Garrett Wilson (WR, Jets)
- Breece Hall (RB, Jets)
- A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots)
After narrowly winning the MVP last year, Maye finds himself at the top of the oddsboard to win the prestigious award this season, jockeying with the likes of Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. While Burrow is consistently at risk of suffering an injury, Jackson enters the year in a new regime, raising red flags until we get more concrete data on how their offense will operate.
Allen on the other hand is an elite dual threat QB who is capable of putting up video game type numbers on a weekly basis. Not only can Allen flip the field in a flash with his arm, he can also burn opposing front sevens with his legs, stuffing the stat sheet in the process. Allen also gets the benefit of playing behind an offensive line who excels in Pass Block, drastically reducing the amount of Havoc he has to deal with which will help improve the quality of his throws.
Using the same logic as before, place a wager on Maye to win the MVP award over Allen, getting a more well rounded arm at a far more favorable price. Especially with the Patriots projected to edge out the Bills for the division title, keeping the spotlight on Maye to help garner more votes for the title. If Allen is able to rival Maye at the top of the oddsboard later on in the year while keeping pace with his output, hedge your bet by placing a separate wager on the Bills QB to create multiple outs.
Best Bet: Drake Maye
Which 2026 AFC East Team Will Reach the Playoffs?
Final Standings Prediction
- New England Patriots (10-7-0)
- Buffalo Bills (10-7-0)
- New York Jets (5-12-0)
- Miami Dolphins (5-12-0)
If the Patriots fall just short of winning the division title, a ten win season would still give them a great chance of securing one of the three wildcard spots, stamping their ticket back into the playoffs. Even in a competitive conference loaded with title contenders, the Patriots are far more polished than those who enter the year with question marks, including the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals with injury concerns looming over their QBs.
At their current odds, pass on the Patriots to make the playoffs as a straight bet, using them instead as a parlay piece, pairing them with the likes of Detroit or Philadelphia who are projected to win more than enough games to either secure the division title or one of the wildcard spots in the NFC. Should the Patriots get off to a slow start while ranking in the top-10 in DVOA, place a wager on them to make the playoffs at a discounted price.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
