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The 2026 version of the AFC South is an intriguing mix of teams that either have designs of serious Super Bowl contendership, or, in the case of the Tennessee Titans, audacious plans of generating exponential season-over-season improvement under a new coaching staff, a more seasoned Cam Ward and a wealth of young offensive talent.
There’s an argument to be had about whether the Jacksonville Jaguars or the Houston Texans are the class of the division, as both teams project for double-digit wins again in 2026. However, the Indianapolis Colts have a chance to significantly outpace their 8-9 mark of a year ago with a healthy Daniel Jones back under center.
2026 AFC South Odds
The AFC South has a clear three-team hierarchy that looms over the projected last-place squad, the Titans. Despite having finished second to the Jaguars last season, the Texans are the clear odds-on favorite in the Division Winner market, with Jacksonville a relatively close second and the Colts a modestly distant third. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s odds aren’t quite at the four-digit level, but the Titans are understandably listed at +800 to shock with a division crown.
The Texans have been perennial contenders during the majority of DeMeco Ryans’ tenure, and defense continues to be the signature of this team despite the presence of some legitimately explosive offensive talent. Houston finished second in points per game (17.4) and yards per game (279.1) allowed while recording 47 sacks and 18 interceptions. Naturally, that’s not to say
the offense doesn’t have the upside to do more than its fair share, considering the presence of C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, David Montgomery and the returning Tank Dell, to name but a few.
However, the Jaguars could have Houston outclassed on the offensive side while still fielding a very capable defense in their own right. Trevor Lawrence fully hit his stride in head coach Liam Coen’s QB-friendly system down the stretch, and he’s surrounded by the likes of Brian Thomas, the ascending Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and the biggest X-factor of the group, Travis Hunter, who somehow added both muscle and speed this offseason.
That leaves a very talented Colts team as somewhat of an underdog candidate despite laying claim to the division’s best running back by far in Jonathan Taylor, a superstar in the making in Tyler Warren and a quarterback in Jones who took to Shane Steichen’s tutelage seamlessly for most of last season until getting hurt. Jones is participating without restrictions in camp and looking good, while the defense boasts what has the potential to be one of the league’s best cornerback duos in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward.
The Titans will undoubtedly make some noise this season as well with what should be a big Year 2 for Ward, a capable Tony Pollard-helmed ground attack, and a bevy of dazzling young receivers headlined by rookie fourth overall pick Carnell Tate and also including Wan’Dale Robinson, Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor, alongside highly capable veteran Calvin Ridley.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars
2026 AFC South MVP Contenders, Odds
- C.J. Stroud (QB, Texans)
- Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars)
- Daniel Jones (QB, Colts)
- Jonathan Taylor (RB, Colts)
- Nico Collins (WR, Texans)
We’ve got an interesting collection of MVP candidates from the expected top three teams in the AFC South, including one very strong candidate in Taylor to break the near monopoly quarterbacks usually have on the award.
In fact, the star running back is a very close second to Lawrence for my top MVP pick from the division, as Taylor has exceeded 1,400 rushing yards on three occasions already in his career, including a 2025 where he compiled 1,585 along with a co-career-high 18 touchdowns and added a career-best 46-378-2 receiving line.
Stroud has always teased a true breakout season plenty, but an assortment of factors have gotten in his way. However, with a healthy Dell available to him alongside Collins and an excellent versatile back in Montgomery now lining up behind him, this could be the season the 2023 second overall pick finally puts it all together.
Jones should have a good chance to carry over his momentum from last season in 2026, although the biggest factor in potentially preventing that is the combination of the departure of Michael Pittman in free agency and the lingering ankle injury for Alec Pierce.
Ultimately, Lawrence shapes up as the top candidate for many of the reasons already discussed. His familiarity in Coen’s system should certainly allow the 2021 first overall pick to hit the ground running this season, and he’ll be doing so with the aforementioned impressive set of weapons. Additionally, as he amply demonstrated last season when he collected a career-high nine rushing touchdowns in 2025, Lawrence is able to put up the type of two-way numbers that considerably burnish an MVP candidate’s resume.
Best Bet: Trevor Lawrence
Which 2026 AFC South Team Will Reach the Playoffs?
Final Standings Prediction
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5)
- Houston Texans (11-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (9-8)
- Tennessee Titans (6-11)
While I expect three AFC South teams to finish above .500 in 2026, I only see the Jags and Texans securing a playoff spot in a deep AFC that also includes the Patriots, Bills, Broncos, Ravens and Chargers among other serious contenders.
The Jaguars therefore make for an excellent playoffs bet at plus money, given I actually expect them to punch an automatic ticket to the postseason as a division winner and be just a bit better on offense than the Texans. In turn, I see the Colts narrowly missing the postseason as Jones regresses some to his career mean as the full season unfolds.
Finally, while improvement from the Titans over last season’s 3-14 mark is a virtual certainty, Tennessee still has a ways to go before rising to the level of its division mates.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
