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The AFC West has been, at most, a two-team division for the past 16 years. The Kansas City Chiefs have been frequent victors of the West, winning nine consecutive division titles, starting from 2016 until 2024. In that span, the Chiefs’ dynasty metastasized to unfound success, winning three Super Bowls while appearing in two others. Entering the 2025 NFL season, the Western crown had resided in Kansas City for almost a decade, with Patrick Mahomes and co. looking to wrap up another division title on the way to yet another Super Bowl appearance.
However, the script flipped. The Chiefs were flat out of the gate, starting the season 0-2 with losses against the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles, and never really found their groove. The offense lacked explosiveness, especially on the ground, and their season came to a grinding halt when Mahomes tore his ACL against the Chargers in Week 15. By then, the Chiefs were 6-7 and on the outside of the playoff picture, clawing to get in, but Mahomes’ injury was the final nail in the coffin. That paved the way for the Denver Broncos to ascend to the top of the division for the first time since 2015.
The Broncos, led by Sean Payton, one of the NFL’s top defenses, and second-year quarterback Bo Nix, finished the season with the joint-best record in the NFL and looked to be heading to a Super Bowl until Bo Nix broke his ankle late in the day against the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos won that game, but wound up losing to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
Now, heading into 2026, the picture in the AFC West is blurrier—but more fascinating—than ever. The Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Las Vegas Raiders have all improved in their own right this offseason and will all have their own ambitions for the season. The first three—the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs—all have grand designs on competing in a Super Bowl. The Broncos will firmly believe that they can go a step further in 2026 with Nix healthy and one of the best rosters in the NFL in tow. The Chiefs will look to right the wrongs of their 2025 season, putting to bed the franchise’s worst record since 2012 in the process. And the Chargers, often the bridesmaid of the division, will have lofty aspirations of their own.
A team that has finished 11-6 in consecutive seasons, they’ll believe that the addition of Mike McDaniel as the team’s offensive coordinator, as well as some active moves in free agency and the draft, will finally be enough to go from a frustrating team that struggles to live up to its potential to real Super Bowl contenders. Even the Raiders, who drafted Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, have ambitions. They have just two winning seasons since 2010, and hope that it’s a new day with Klint Kubiak leading the team. Ambitions are plenty in the AFC West.
2026 AFC West Odds
Despite their collapse in 2025, the Chiefs have earned the benefit of the doubt among sportsbooks this offseason. The Chiefs (+160) are favored to win the AFC West for the 10th time in 11 years this season, with the Chargers (+190) and Broncos (+225) in tow. Not so surprisingly, the Raiders (+2000) have the longest odds to win the division. The confidence in the Chiefs as favorites is rooted in one player: Patrick Mahomes. The former two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP is still the best quarterback in the NFL and enters the offseason healthy after tearing his ACL and LCL in 2025. The vote of confidence in Mahomes and the Chiefs comes with the territory, and while it may be hard to look past one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, there are a few glaring question marks in their candidacy. The offense struggled in large stretches in 2025, even with Mahomes on the field. The running game lacked pop; that’ll be addressed by adding Kenneth Walker, the MVP of Super Bowl LX, to the backfield. Walker rushed for 1027 yards and five touchdowns with the Seahawks in 2025, and will be a well-utilized weapon in the Chiefs’ backfield, but major doubts exist with the passing game.
The Chiefs did little to address the passing game in the offseason, bringing back Tyquan Thornton on a two-year $11 million deal and drafting Cyrus Allen in the fifth round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Allen has been making waves in training camp, but as a fifth-round pick, how big can his sphere of influence be? There are legitimate reasons to feel concerned about the Chiefs’ offense. Travis Kelce returned this offseason, but his star power carries more weight than his performances on the field at this point. Walker will make the running game a point of emphasis, but the lack of difference-makers in the passing game could be an issue—just as it was in 2025. The difference now is that the defense might not be able to carry so much of the load. The secondary lost Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to the Rams this offseason. Things aren’t as rosy as the odds suggest.
The Chiefs’ potential paves the way for the Broncos to repeat as division winners for the first time since the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The Broncos’ roster remains one of the strongest in the NFL across the board through the power of retention. Defensive end John Franklin-Myers and defensive back P.J. Locke were the notable losses in free agency, but third-round pick Tyler Onyedim could make an impact in a rotation that finished seventh in EPA per play in 2025, per Sümer Sports. Year-to-year consistency on defense is a hard ask, but the Broncos are in as good a spot as anyone to stay strong in 2026. The major moves for the team came on offense.
Sean Payton relinquished playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Davis Webb, but will still be an important voice in the design and execution of the offensive game plan. A game plan that will run even smoother with the addition of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. The former Dolphins’ receiver joined the team in the offseason in exchange for a 2026 first-round pick, and Waddle could be the perfect receiver for Payton’s offensive vision. Dynamic across the field and a real weapon with the ball in his hands, Waddle could feast in the slot for the Broncos, elevating the offense—that finished 10th in EPA per play in 2025—to one of the NFL’s elite units. Their success largely hinges on the growth of Bo Nix in his third season. Nix finished 19th in EPA per play in 2025 and still has considerable room for growth. If he can take a step forward and iron out some of the kinks in his game, the Broncos will have a major opportunity to win the division, and maybe even go a step further and compete in a Super Bowl in 2026.
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Also looking to compete for a Super Bowl in 2026 are the Los Angeles Chargers. Back-to-back 11-6 seasons in 2024 and 2025 ended in similarly disappointing Wildcard losses, but the arrow is firmly pointed upwards at SoFi Stadium. A hot start in 2025 with wins against the entire AFC West mellowed out, but there’s a lot to like about this version of the Chargers. The front office brought in Mike McDaniel—who coached the Dolphins to top-10 finishes in EPA per play and success rate in 2022 and 2023—to serve as the team’s new offensive coordinator and help elevate an offense that has a ton of potential with Justin Herbert at quarterback. McDaniel’s offensive vision could unlock a level of play and consistency that’s evaded the Chargers in recent seasons.
On top of their potential offensive ascension, the Chargers’ defense has the horses to be in a strong position with Chris O’Leary as the team’s defensive coordinator. The team drafted Miami edge rusher Akheem Mesidor in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and the 25-year-old rookie could make a splash rushing the passer alongside veteran Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu, who had a career-high 13 sacks in 2025. With the amount of talent on both sides of the ball, and the considerable upside that the team possesses, the Chargers could be in a prime position to win their first AFC West crown since 2009. Even in areas where the team has traditionally lacked, like depth on the offensive line, they feel more sated—especially if the tackle duo of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt can stay healthy. The addition of Tyler Biadasz at center will be important, too. The team has struggled to protect Herbert from the interior in recent seasons, and their improved ability to do so, as well as a faster and more dynamic offense that could utilize receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, gives the team a more buttoned-up feeling. Could 2026 be their year?
The AFC West has three major players, but the fourth team—the Raiders—are trailing behind again. The question surrounding the team is how early will Fernando Mendoza, the hopeful saviour of the franchise, start? There’s no doubt that Mendoza will see the field in his rookie season, but veteran Kirk Cousins is likely to begin the season as the team’s starter. That’s the smart play. Mendoza’s offense in Indiana, with RPO-heavy and not-so-NFL-scheme concepts, means there could be a slight learning curve for the number one overall pick. His talent is undeniable.
Mendoza has the arm, the build, and the toughness to succeed in the NFL, but some time to mature behind a smart veteran like Cousins can only be seen as a beneficial journey. The ecosystem around Mendoza will be improved. Klint Kubiak enters his first year as the team’s head coach after a stellar year as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator. He helped elevate the likes of Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while negating the weakness of an offensive line that wasn’t chock-full of talent. That’s a skill. And the hope is Kubiak can apply that same power in Vegas. The Raiders’ offensive line was arguably the worst unit in football in 2025, and though an upgrade at center, bringing in Tyler Linderbaum on a mega-money deal, came to fruition in free agency, the Raiders are returning three starters from 2025.
Turning the unit around will be a tall task. As will improvements on defense, but the Raiders are trying.. The Raiders kept Maxx Crosby after his trade to the Ravens was voided, a helpful retention if the goal is to be competitive in 2026. The team spent heavily in free agency, adding Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Kwity Paye, and Taron Johnson. However, the Raiders feel a long way off contention in a loaded and hungry AFC West. The Chiefs are the betting favorites, but a real lack of upgrades at key spots means they could fall behind both the Chargers and Broncos in 2026. Both rosters, from top to bottom, feel stronger, even if they lack the upside of Mahomes at quarterback. In its totality, the AFC West could, and likely will, come down to the wire. But the team left standing tall could finally be the Chargers, ending their long divisional crown drought. They feel like a team truly on the up.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers
2026 AFC West MVP Contenders, Odds
- Patrick Mahomes (QB, Chiefs)
- Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers)
- Bo Nix (QB, Broncos)
- Fernando Mendoza (QB, Raiders)
- Nik Bonitto (EDGE, Broncos)
- Kenneth Walker (RB, Chiefs)
- Omarion Hampton (RB, Chargers)
- Patrick Surtain (CB, Broncos)
There are more than a handful of worthy candidates for the NFL’s MVP award residing in the AFC West. Naturally, there’s two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, who has the joint-best odds in the division to win the award. Advocating for Mahomes needs little campaigning. He’s still, arguably, the best quarterback in the NFL, or at least in the top three at the position. One of the faces of the NFL over the last decade, and likely for the foreseeable future, and interestingly, has narrative on his side.
In the years preceding last season, there was a degree of oversaturation for MVP voters with Mahomes, who had dominated the league with the Chiefs en route to five Super Bowl appearances in six seasons. Now, the Chiefs are coming off a season where they missed the postseason for the first time since 2014 and aren’t the runaway favorites for the division. Couple that with Mahomes returning from a major injury and leading a not-so-perfect Chiefs offense and you’ve got a perfect storm for a narrative. If Mahomes can lead this version of the Chiefs to the postseason, and look good while doing so, he’ll be back in the MVP hunt.
Closely following Mahomes is Justin Herbert. The former first-round pick hasn’t made waves in the postseason with the Chargers, but has consistently been one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL in the regular season, despite the ecosystem around him not always being full of quality players. Things are in as good of a position for Herbert as they’ve ever been in the NFL heading into 2026. He’s got a top play caller, a complimentary set of weapons and, if healthy, an offensive line that has the chance to be a far-improved unit than the one that plagued the Chargers in 2025, and had Justin Herbert sacked on 8.78% of his dropbacks—the 10th-highest rate in the league. The leap that the offense could take with McDaniel calling plays could be the difference between being a top-16 offense and a top-5 offense.
That could parlay into Herbert having a career-year and a major MVP candidate. The stars have to align for it to happen, but it isn’t impossible. Just as it isn’t impossible for Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix. The 2024 first-round pick took tremendous strides in his second season in the NFL. Nix finished the season 10th in total EPA, per Sumer Sports, completing 63.4% of his passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He added 356 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Nix has the benefit of one of the best offensive ecosystems in the league, but was able to take the game by the scruff of the neck more often in 2025, orchestrating seven game-winning drives, the most in the NFL. Adding Waddle, rookie running back Jonah Coleman, and returning one of the best offensive lines in the league, especially in pass-protection, means Nix could be a real dark horse candidate.
Further back, there are longshot candidates like Fernando Mendoza, but the rookie quarterback likely won’t step in until midway through the 2026 NFL season, and though expectations are high, he isn’t expected to play at an elite level for a couple of seasons. If that’s the case, Mendoza can be ruled out. Since there hasn’t been a non-quarterback winner since 2012, the chances of Kenneth Walker, Nik Bonitto, or Patrick Surtain snapping up the award are next to none.
The pick here is Herbert. Though betting against Mahomes looking to fire the Chiefs back to the postseason, and maybe the Super Bowl, is a dangerous prospect, there feels like not enough changes to the Chiefs’ offense to really help Mahomes carry the load. Herbert has the benefit of an elite playcaller joining an already good foundation, improvements to the offensive line, and the talent. Putting it all together has never felt so close for the 2020 first-round pick.
Best Bet: Justin Herbert
Which 2026 AFC West Team Will Reach The Playoffs?
Final Standings Prediction
- Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)
- Denver Broncos (11-6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-8)
- Las Vegas Raiders (5-12)
The AFC West has produced at least two playoff teams in four of the last five seasons, and the expectation is they’ll accomplish that again in 2026. The question is how many teams will make the postseason? In 2024, the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs all made the postseason. That could happen again in 2026. The surprise here will be seeing the Chiefs finish with a 9-8 record. It’s entirely plausible that this team, with Mahomes under center, can win 11 or 12 games. But there have been too many changes.
Losing McDuffie and Watson on the back end is a major blow, and there’s no guarantee that the Chiefs will consistently get pressure off the edge with George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah. The potential pitfalls of the passing attack have been covered extensively, too, and that’s under the pretense that Mahomes enters the season without any rust. At 9-8, the Chiefs could still make the playoffs, but it’ll be tight.
At 12-5 and 11-6, respectively, the Chargers and Broncos should be cruising into the postseason. Of the two, the Broncos have the easier strength of schedule—15th-toughest in the NFL compared to the Chargers’ ninth-toughest schedule—but the Chargers’ upside feels a little more significant thanks to Herbert under center. All three of the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers have odds shorter than -140, so the Chiefs to miss the playoffs at +170 could be in play, but a 9-8 record might be enough to just sneak into the postseason. All three teams will be challenging for the top spot in the division and in the conference.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
