2026 Big 12 College Football Betting Preview, Odds & Best Bets

By Nate Weitzer | Aug 02, 2026, 8:11pm

Perhaps more than any conference in NCAA Football, the Big 12 Conference has undergone a major shakeup this offseason.

Several programs introduce huge transfer classes with new coaches taking over at Iowa State and Utah. The records could flip for several teams, but the mainstay at the top of the conference is still Texas Tech. The Raiders went 12-2 overall and 9-1 in conference play with a resounding 34-7 win over BYU in the Big 12 Championship last December.

A major shadow hangs over Texas Tech football with transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby mired in a court case regarding his eligibility. The five-star recruit placed bets on NCAA football over several years and admitted to a gambling addiction, so he was under review by the NCAA and ruled ineligible. His legal team filed an injunction to compete in 2026, and it was upheld by a court, but the NCAA is filing an appeal, with the final decision ultimately seeing him out of 2026.

Several athletic directors in the Big 12 and in other conferences have gone on record threatening to remove Texas Tech from their schedule if Sorsby is eligible this season. The news regarding Sorsby’s eligibility shifted Tech’s title odds down to 15/1 and moved the market in the Big 12 as well.

Entering the summer, BYU has the second-shortest odds behind Texas Tech to challenge for the conference title, followed by Utah, Kansas State, and Houston. Could any of these contenders raise their level high enough to stop the Raiders from winning a second straight title?

The Big 12 Championship is slated for Friday, December 4 this season at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

2026 Big 12 Winner Odds

Texas Tech is favored to repeat as Big 12 champions after dominating most of the top contenders in their league last year. The Raiders did lose a stunning nine players to the NFL draft in April, led by edge rusher David Bailey and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, but they still return 14 starters and got reinforcements up front with elite defensive linemen Trey White, Adam Trick, and Mateen Ibiroga transferred in. The Raiders are loaded at the skill positions and will be a dangerous offensive team and Will Hammond shifts into a starting role.

Both Houston and BYU are on the rise with young quarterbacks in central roles. Houston will debut five-star Keisean Henderson and Big 12 Freshman of the Year Bear Bachmeier returns after passing for 3,000 yards for BYU last year. Neither team provided much of a challenge for Texas Tech last year and the gap is still sizable between those rosters.

Utah is undergoing a shakeup under new coach Morgan Scalley, a longtime defensive coordinator stepping into his first lead role. The Utes will likely run a power offense with Wayshawn Parker leading the backfield and 6-foot-5, 270-pound freshman tackle Kelvin Obot replacing some of the bulk they lost up front.

Kansas State is a surprising contender with the fourth-shortest odds after going 6-6 overall and 2-5 in one-score games last year. The Wildcats will ride NFL prospect Avery Johnson as a dual-threat QB and hope new DC Jordan Peterson and head coach Collin Klein can get the most out of a newly-formed defense.

It isn’t flashy, but the Raiders have an absolutely loaded roster that is head and shoulders above the Big 12 competition, regardless of who plays quarterback. The Raiders would still most likely earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship game and take out any perceived sleights against their opponent with another blowout win.

Best Bet: Texas Tech

2026 Big 12 Win Total Odds

Arizona (7.5)
Arizona State (6.5)
Baylor (6.5)
BYU (8.5)
Cincinnati (5.5)
Colorado (4.5)
Houston (8.5)
Iowa State (5.5)
Kansas (6)
Kansas State (8)
Oklahoma State (6)
TCU (7)
Texas Tech (11)
UCF (5.5)
Utah (9)
West Virginia (5.5)

Texas Tech is the only Big 12 team with a projection of 10.5 wins and there is serious juice to the over.

The rest of the conference hovers between 5.5 to 8.5 wins, with Colorado standing out as the only program expected to go under 4.5 wins.

Arizona stands out as a good team to back in the regular season with veteran quarterback Noah Fifita at the helm. The Wildcats are getting plus money to top 7.5 wins and while they might have two predictable losses at BYU and Texas Tech, they could be favored in their other 10 games and close with three of their last four at home against TCU, Utah, and Arizona State.

Houston is another program with a great chance to top 7.5 wins and a much safer path to do so than Arizona. The Cougars win total is juiced to the over because their schedule ranks 133rd nationally in terms of opponent’s win percentage last year. Their only tough games are at Texas Tech, Utah, and Kansas State, leaving nine great opportunities to score eight wins.

Kansas is in rebuilding mode after leaning on Jalon Daniels for several years and their new QB will face a rather tough schedule with losses likely coming to Missouri and Arizona State in the first month. The Jayhawks play five conference games on the road and are a decent bet to fall short of their projection for 5.5 wins.

West Virginia might score a pair of wins in the first month of the season, but the Mountaineers schedule is brutal after that, and they could easily fall short of 5.5 wins. The Mountaineers might have an exciting dual-threat quarterback in Oklahoma transfer Michael Hawkins Jr. but they lack depth and talent on both sides of the line, and that could doom them against physical Big 12 competition.

Best Bet: West Virginia Under

2026 Big 12 Heisman Trophy Contenders, Odds

Bear Bachmeier (BYU)
Devon Dampier (Utah)
Avery Johnson (Kansas State)
Noah Fifita (Arizona)

It makes sense to take a small stab at a QB with longer odds in the Big 12, such as Bachmeier. The dynamic 6-foot-2 sophomore totaled 26 touchdowns and 3,560 scrimmage yards last year. While he showed his inexperience in two losses to Texas Tech, he was very solid against all other opponents. If the sophomore makes a leap this year and somehow manages to lead BYU past Notre Dame in a premier October matchup, he would generate some consideration.

Best Bet: Pass

2026 Big 12 College Football Playoff Odds

Texas Tech’s odds to make the College Football Playoff are much shorter than the Raiders odds to repeat as Big 12 champions. That could be a nod to BYU as a rising power, and an indication that the Cougars have some value at +650 to win the Big 12, and some value at +390 to make the CFP.

Utah is in the realm of contenders at +500 and Kansas State has an outside shot at +750, with Houston, TCU, and Arizona rounding out the longshots to make the CFB out of the Big 12.

There is a chance BYU could make the CFP without winning the Big 12, although that would earn an automatic bid. The Cougars Oct. 17 matchup against Notre Dame looms large as a resume-building opportunity.

BYU is loaded with transfer talent and blue chip recruits around a rising QB in Bachmeier. Take a shot at the Cougars getting into the 12-team field even if you aren’t willing to back them to win the Big 12.

Best Bet: BYU

Photo Credit: REUTERS

Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer has been covering sports betting and daily fantasy sports at Catena Media for nearly a decade, focusing primarily on NBA and NFL content. He is the co-host of the NBA and NFL Coast 2 Coast show on the Lineups YouTube channel, where he provides daily picks and prop bets alongside co-host Josh Lander. He also runs the NFL premium content channel at LandYourBets.com. In addition to his duties at Catena, Weitzer is a high school sports reporter for The Boston Globe and a freelance writer for other outlets, covering stories ranging from high school championships to ski mountaineering races. He graduated from Boston University’s MS in Sports Journalism program in 2012.