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The PGA Tour’s post-season rolls on, as we’ve reached the second leg of the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs. Only the 50-best players remain as we head to St. Louis, Missouri at Bellerive Country Club for the 2026 BMW Championship.
Playing conditions will continue to be hot and humid, but the players themselves will need to stay hot too if they want to advance to the top-30 and qualify for the TOUR finale at East Lake Golf Club next week. Like many other sports, the playoffs are all about heating up at the right time, making this an ideal week to target players in trending form. That is especially true at Bellerive Country Club, which allowed the best approach players in the field to separate the last time it hosted the world’s best at the 2018 PGA Championship.
In this article, we’ll look for diamonds in the rough ahead of the 2026 BMW Championship.
2026 BMW Championship Odds
Bellerive Country Club Course Introduction
Bellerive Country Club, as we know it today, dates back to 1957, when the property moved to its current location in Town and Country, Missouri, just outside of St. Louis. From there, Robert Trent Jones Sr. got to work designing the layout as it currently stands: A long, Bentgrass-based, parkland golf course on a visually stimulating backdrop in the heartland of Missouri.
The course plays as a very long 7,448-yard par-70. Both par-5s measure over 600 yards. The shorter par-4s are doglegged and cannot be driven. That is what makes approach play so crucial here. There really are not any “Scramble for Birdie” opportunities; birdie looks will need to be generated with great approaches from 100-200 yards.
While there is some water on the property, it will be the combination of thick rough and tight treelines that present the greatest test for the field this week, in addition to its sheer length. Driving accuracy is not a must here, as the fairways are generous enough by PGA Tour standards, but wayward misses will be severely penalized here. So, while distance is absolutely advantageous at Bellerive, it should remain immune to a reckless bomb-and-gouge approach.
BMW Championship Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my BMW Championship preview.
BMW Championship Golf DFS Picks & Longshot Bets
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the FedEx St Jude Championship, Recent Form, SG: APP, and Event History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a golf DFS picks perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of SG: APP, Comp Course History, and Recent Form. Form can be fleeting at the end of a long regular season, so this tends to be a spot on the schedule where players can build momentum off of a strong showing in their last one or two preceding starts. Comp Course History on similar long, parkland, Bentgrass venues that emphasize distance and ball-striking will also be crucial in finding diamonds in the rough at Bellerive Country Club.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf fantasy picks and longshots for the 2026 BMW Championship. Stats pulled across the Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Their odds of winning the event are also shown.
Wyndham Clark
The terms “longshot” and “sleeper” are relative when the field reduces to just 50 players. Consensus odds have 14 players priced shorter than Wyndham Clark, which is enough for me to make the claim that he is, indeed, being slept on. Clark has had a top-3 season on the PGA Tour by my assessment, picking up wins at the U.S. Open and CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He has a total of five top-5 finishes on the year, each coming within his last nine starts, with just two missed cuts over that span.
Clark started the playoffs on a high note, finishing T5 at last week’s FedEx St Jude Championship. Having the hot hand is half the battle when it comes to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, as it is far too late in the season for most players to find their form if they haven’t by now. The two-time U.S. Open champion fits the bill for Bellerive Country Club, as his strengths lie in his distance off the tee and long-iron approach proficiency. He is one of just four players in the field this week to rank above-average in Comp Course History, Total Driving, SG: T2G, and SG: APP.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Motivation is at an all time high for Michael Thorbjorsen, as he is one great week away from reaching East Lake and forcing a difficult decision from Presidents Cup captain Brandt Snedeker. There is no doubting the 24-year-old former collegiate standout’s talent, and he showed us a glimpse of his full potential in his first career PGA Tour win two starts ago at the Rocket Classic. That marked his second top-10 finish over his last four starts, as he’s made a concerted charge at the end of the season.
Thorbjorsen profiles as an elite Total Driver and great long-iron player, ranking top-10 in Driving Distance and Prox: 200+. That is a combination that will play well at Bellerive Country Club, as we saw players of a similar skillset like Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods, and Adam Scott fill out the podium last we were here at the 2018 PGA Championship. While his form has been a bit volatile recently, his ceiling is worth chasing on such a strong course fit.
Kurt Kitayama
If total driving, approach play, and trending recent form are the keys to success at Bellerive Country Club, we may be looking at the perfect course for Kurt Kitayama’s game. Kitayama has been a ball-striking force all 2026 season, and ranks top-15 in terms of SG: OTT, Driving Distance, SG: APP, and SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds. He is best suited to attack longer, driver-heavy courses, as he displayed with his most recent PGA Tour win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023.
Kitayama has demonstrated great consistency in the second half of this season as well, currently riding a streak of 13 consecutive made cuts, with four top-12 finishes over that span. His most recent top-12 finish came just last week at the FedEx St Jude Championship, an encouraging sign as he looks to maintain his position inside the TOUR Championship bubble at 28th in the standings.
Kristoffer Reitan
Value is not easy to come by in a field of just 50 players, and any true longshot available in this field is not without their faults. In the case of Kristoffer Reitan, I like the longterm metrics and course profile fit enough to take a chance on his less-than-stellar recent form. The 28-year-old Dane is a shoe-in to win PGA Tour Rookie of the Year at this point, winning the Truist Championship Signature Event and posting six additional top-20 finishes on the season.
There’s no question the bomber plays his best golf on long, driver-heavy courses, as he posted top-15 finishes at Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, and Doral in his tournament debuts at each this year. That game plan should translate well at Bellerive too, which plays as a deceptively long 7,448-yard par-70. While his form has been up-and-down of late, he has finishes of T18 and T22 over his last four starts and is an appealing top-20 placement value this week.
Best of luck if you choose to roster these BMW Championship golf DFS picks!
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