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It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2026 Cognizant Classic. Compare Cognizant Classic odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Shane Lowry, Ben Griffin, and Adam Scott project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
The Florida Swing is officially underway as the PGA Tour heads east to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The show continues at PGA National as we prep for the 2026 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, formerly the Honda Classic.
PGA National has long been one of the significant challenges on TOUR. Its closing stretch features a climactic finish with constant long iron approaches into greens surrounded by water. We should expect plenty of carnage and reloads for any shots off the mark.
Here’s everything you can expect to help navigate 2026 Cognizant Classic odds.
COGNIZANT CLASSIC ODDS: THE FAVORITES
Find opening odds for favorites at 30-1 or higher. Scroll to the bottom to compare complete outright odds at major sportsbooks in your state.
THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
Sandwiched between back-to-back Singature Events before and after this week, the Cognizant Classic has unfortunately been put in an impossible position on the schedule. As a result, stars continue to skip PGA National, serving as a natural bye week between the West Coast and Florida Swing. Even still, many who call Florida home are prepared to play for the next several weeks consecutively.
Shane Lowry, Ben Griffin, Michael Thorbjornsen, Adam Scott, and Jacob Bridgeman are expected to open as the betting favorites this week.
There are just four OWGR top-30 players set to tee it up: Griffin, Lowry, Ryan Gerard, and Aaron Rai. Brooks Koepka, Will Zalatoris, Billy Horschel, and Max Homa round out the list of notable names in this week’s field.
Joe Highsmith turned heads with a surprising come-from-behind victory at this event. He has taken a nosedive down the OWGR rankings in the year that’s passed since, but will look to rekindle that form in his title defense this week. Past champions in this week’s field include Austin Eckroat, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell, Camilo Villegas, and Matt Kuchar.
INTRODUCTION TO PGA NATIONAL
Unfortunately, this event became the forgotten stepchild of the Florida Swing, serving as a natural travel bye week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship looming ahead.
Florida golf can sometimes get a bad reputation for posing the same repetitive Bermuda agronomy and water hazards lining the fairways and greens as its core defense. But in an age of modern golf where bombers can overpower holes with reckless abandon, I welcome this style of golf course to help neutralize erratic ball-striking. Here, elite ball strikers well accustomed to Bermuda greens have been best positioned to separate themselves.
A former host venue of the 1983 Ryder Cup and 1987 PGA Championship, PGA National represents historic grounds for golf, and I’m excited to see an improved field face this stern test. Maybe a credit to TGL, Michael Thorbjornsen, Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Tom Kim, Neil Shipley, Max Homa and Adam Scott seem to have gotten used to visiting Palm Beach Gardens this winter, as they will all be here to tee it up for real this week.
Recent Course Changes
PGA National has long been a par-70 with only two par-5s. New in 2026, the par-4 10th hole was lengthened by 20 yards and converted from a very difficult long 508-yard par-4 to a more scorable 528-yard par-5.
Historically, the 10th hole was the second-hardest scoring hole at PGA National, with a scoring average of 4.25. Lengthening by about 20 yards may increase the scoring average slightly, but relative to par, this now becomes the easier birdie opportunity on the course.
This doesn’t change how the course plays, nor which players suit it best. We should expect the winning mark to be four strokes lower than we’ve typically seen recently.
About the Course
PGA National stands at 7,145 yards as a par-71. It’s anything but your traditional short plodder’s course, with tight landing areas off the tee and a heavy volume of forced layups from dramatic doglegs. Wedge play is effectively removed from this course, with only about 11% of approaches coming from within 125 yards. That’s a unique distinction for a course of this length, as it instead rewards the top mid-to-long iron players. About 65% of approach shots will come from 125-200 yards, well above the tour average.
PGA National is the most difficult course on the tour for approaches from beyond 150 yards. That’s partly thanks to its exposure to gusting winds and firm and fast conditions. This places a premium on bogey avoidance and scrambling, benefiting players comfortable on pure Bermuda on and around the green. Top-tier ball strikers with proven short games on Bermuda contend in this event.
PGA National has had a cut line above par in the last 10 years. Its median field score sat at even par or worse in seven of the last eight years. Outside of the par-5s, all 15 other holes feature a scoring average of even par or worse. The par-5s offer no guarantees for birdies, depending on the wind direction.
A score of -10 or better had been enough to win this event in eight of the last 10 years. With par converted to 71 last year, however, it was a completely different story in 2025. With overseeded turf taking away PGA National’s signature firmness and speed, we saw a pseudo-birdie fest breakout, with Jake Knapp shooting an opening round 59 and Joe Highsmith shooting a tournament-low 19-under-par. Assuming no significant changes to the year-over-year course setup, PGA National figures to be less of a grind and more favorable to birdie-makers and streaky Bermuda putters.
COURSE HISTORY & COURSE COMPS
After a few weeks on the West Coast with a highly predictive course history, the Cognizant Classic struggled to produce the same continuity year after year. Over the last 40 years, only Padraig Harrington and Mark Calcavecchia have won this event multiple times. Given its rotating slot on the schedule each year, attracting the same players has been challenging.
Shane Lowry
Lowry has done everything but win at this event, feeling right at home since moving to Palm Beach Gardens with top-11 finishes in his last four appearances at the Cognizant Classic. He ranks No. 1 Course History at this event over that time, and will come in hot off a stretch of seven consuctve top-25 finishes.
Others Excelling at Cognizant Classic
After Lowry, the rest of the top 10 in event history are Adam Scott, Daniel Berger, Ryan Gerard, Billy Horschel, Jacob Bridgeman, Aaron Wise, Chris Kirk, Keith Mitchell, and Ben Griffin.
Some notables among the worst in terms of total strokes gained at PGA National include Stephan Jaeger, Joel Dahmen, and Patrick Rodgers.
Only seven players have avoided missing the cut at this event over the last five years (min. three appearances): Garrick Higgo, Shane Lowry, Keith Mitchell, Beau Hossler, Chris Kirk, Billy Horschel, and Davis Riley.
Just five players in this field have delivered multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Shane Lowry, Keith Mitchell, Lee Hodges, Chris Kirk, and Erik van Rooyen.
Course Comps
When finding course fits this week, there are plenty of complex and wind-exposed Bermuda layouts to reference. I’m weighing comp course history in my model more than usual. Plenty of players have a sticky history throughout the Florida Swing this time of year who are worth buying low on after the last month on primarily Poa-based greens.
Nicklaus has his hands all over the layout of this golf course. Concession GC emulates PGA National, which is the closest in my eyes. Apart from the Nicklaus connection, both are in Florida on the same Bermuda grass and water hazards. They share pretty difficult scoring and a premium on approach play.
Weather Considerations
A significant factor for this week is managing the flighting of the ball around swirling winds. Matt Jones and Austin Eckroat credited their comfort in flighting different shots into winds as key to their victories here in recent years. TPC Southwind, Colonial CC, TPC San Antonio, and Waialae CC are similar shorter courses requiring this type of maneuvering. And as far as crossover leaderboards go, Waialae CC is probably the best comp, with overlapping wins at each from Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, and Matt Kuchar within the past decade. Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Keith Mitchell, and Adam Scott add to the list of past Cognizant Classic winners with a strong history at Waialae CC.
Bay Hill, Innisbrook (Copperhead), East Lake, and TPC Sawgrass also reward similar skill sets under challenging conditions. If we want to look at a blanket SG: Florida, the top 10 players in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds across the Florida Swing are Shane Lowry, Daniel Berger, Jacob Bridgeman, Max Homa, Billy Horschel, Davis Riley, Taylor Moore, Danny Walker, Chris Kirk, and Brooks Koepka.
Finally, on a more tertiary basis, I like Quail Hollow as another challenging scoring course with fast Bermuda greens that slightly favors longer hitters.
If you add all that together, the top 10 players in comp course history are Shane Lowry, Ben Griffin, Adam Scott, Daniel Berger, Brooks Koepka, Keith Mitchell, Aaron Rai, Ryan Gerard, Lee Hodges, and Mac Meissner.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER AT THE 2026 COGNIZANT CLASSIC
- SG: APP/SG: ball striking
- SG: OTT/driving distance
- SG: ARG/scrambling (Bermuda)
- Prox: 150-200
- Bogey and double bogey avoidance
- SG: TOT (difficult scoring conditions) / SG: TOT (Florida swing)
- SG: putting (Bermuda)
- Course history and comp course history
With so many high-pressure approach shots over water, it’s crucial to have narrow misses on this course. That’s especially true in the 150- to 200-yard range. The top 10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Austin Smotherman, Nicolai Hojgaard, Chris Kirk, Austin Eckroat, Adam Scott, Adam Svensson, Shane Lowry, Rico Hoey, Aaron Rai, and Ryan Gerard.
The top 10 players in proximity 150-200 yards are Emiliano Grillo, Ryan Gerard, Davis Thompson, Patrick Rodgers, Rico Hoey, Austin Eckroat, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Luke Clanton, Sami Valimaki, and Nico Echavarria.
It’s difficult to pinpoint where this event falls from an OTT standpoint between distance vs. accuracy. Since SG: OTT hasn’t been highly correlated with past success, I’m leaning more toward SG: ball striking this week to include a second layer of approach importance. With hazards coming into play persistently, it’s probably best to weed out any players in the bottom 25% in SG: OTT or driving distance this week.
The Biggest Keys
I’m looking more closely at Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling gained, and SG: P (Bermuda), as players who fit this profile should have the safest floors. The players in the top 40 in each category are Ben Griffin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mac Meissner, Jacob Bridgeman, Taylor Pendrith, Sami Valimaki, and Garrick Higgo.
To bring this all together, I’m focusing on above-average players in SG: APP, prox: 150-200, SG: ball striking, scrambling, SG: TOT (comp courses), Bermuda putting and Bogey Avoidance. Only nine players fit that criteria this week: Ben Griffin, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mac Meissner, Daniel Berger, Michael Thorbjornsen, Max McGreevy, Sami Valimaki, and Blades Brown.
Correlation And PGA National
The correlation charts for success at PGA National call for a similar profile of par-4 scoring premiums, bogey avoidance, and SG: T2G. As a par-71, there is less advantage from par-5 scoring this week. There hasn’t been much of an edge for par-3 specialists, either.
The importance of SG: APP and scrambling jumps the most compared to the tour average. I’ll dial up the importance of those metrics in my model this week. Par-4: 350-400 will also be a premium scoring range this week, as three par-4s will fall within this range.
Regarding other stats to avoid, prox 200+ and three-putt avoidance were among the least correlated with success at PGA National.
Just seven players rate out above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for PGA National: Ben Griffin, Christiaan Bezidenhout, Mac Meissner, Matt Wallace, Michael Thorbjornsen, Austin Eckroat, and Andrew Putnam.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: RYAN GERARD
The 2025 Barracuda Championship winner has kept the pedal down in the new year, picking up top-11 finishes in four of his last five starts. That includes runner-up finishes in his first two starts of the new year at the Sony Open and American Express.
Gerard has been a ball-striking machine all the while, ranking top-10 in SG: Approach and Prox: 150-200 over the first two months of the new season. As a Carolina native who now resides just down the road from PGA National in Jupiter, Florida, Bermuda has been his preferred putting surface since turning pro. That preference for Bermuda has translated well at this event thus far as well, finishing 4th and T25 in his first two Cognizant Classic appearances.
Now entering in the best form of his young career, Gerard should have his sights on picking up his second career PGA TOUR win this week. He ranks No. 5 overall in my model and will be a fixture on my Cognizant Classic betting card.
2026 COGNIZANT CLASSIC ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. I’m also looking their way in the 2026 Cognizant Classic odds. I’ve broken the list by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings, with odds and pricing expected to release on Monday.
COGNIZANT CLASSIC ODDS MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN
For my model this week, I prioritize SG: APP, comp course history, prox 150-200, and recent form (SG: TOT: L16). Then, a more balanced mix of scrambling, SG: ARG, SG: P (Bermuda), SG: TOT (Florida swing), and Bogey Avoidance.
Model Favorites
Ben Griffin is the top dog in my 2026 Cognizant Classic model. That checks out on a demanding, sub-7,100-yard course played on Bermuda, emphasizing avoiding trouble with approach and tee shots and separating on Bermuda greens. It’s been a slow start to the 2026 season for Griffin, but an easier course setup and weaker competition could be the change of pace Griffin needs to get back to his dominant 2025 ways.
After Griffin, my model’s top 10 consists of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Mac Meissner, Jacob Bridheman, Ryan Gerard, Adam Scott, Keith Mitchell, Taylor Pendrith, Lee Hodges, and Thorbjorn Olesen.
When the odds release on Monday, I want to build a balanced card with exposure to Ryan Gerard and Michael Thorbjornsen. Depending on where the odds ultimately fall, I’m also considering Daniel Berger, Taylor Pendrith, and Garrick Higgo.
Check back in later this week for more updates. Thanks for reading, and best of luck navigating 2026 Cognizant Classic odds!
