2026 FedEx St Jude Championship Odds: Four Longshots & PGA Tour Sleepers
The PGA Tour’ regular season has officially concluded. Only the 70-best players remain as we kick off the first leg of the playoffs in Memphis, Tennessee at TPC Southwind for the 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship.
Playing conditions will be sweltering, but the players themselves will need to stay hot too if they want to advance to the top-50 and qualify for the BMW Championship next week. Like many other sports, the playoffs are all about heating up at the right time, making this an ideal week to target players in trending form. That is especially true coming off of a direct comp course in Sedgefield Country Club, as for the second week in a row, ball-striking consistency and putting skill on Bermuda greens will be crucial.
In this article, we’ll look for diamonds in the rough ahead of the 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship.
FedEx St Jude Championship Odds
TPC Southwind Course Introduction
TPC Southwind is true to its name, in that it embodies all of the characteristics of a southern Bermuda course while also being susceptible to high winds. Southwind will impose more of a test than your typical TPC layout, but can be attacked by bombers and fairway-finders alike. Players with the most balanced, well-rounded skillsets and proven history on Bermuda greens have shown to have the best track record at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
At 7,233 yards, TPC Southwind measures fairly average in terms of length by PGA Tour standards, and the list of contenders over the years would suggest that distance is not a prerequisite for success. The list of contenders of the years on this course suggests an emphasis on players who can consistently position themselves well off the tee and are predominantly comfortable putting on pure Bermuda greens. Since the St. Jude Classic evolved into the WGC FedEx St. Jude, we’ve seen a progression of the cream rising to the top. Skilled players from tee to green should naturally be best suited to navigate this course.
FedEx St Jude Championship Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my FedEx St Jude Championship preview.
FedEx St Jude Championship Golf DFS Picks & Longshot Bets
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the FedEx St Jude Championship, Recent Form, SG: APP, and Event History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a golf DFS picks perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of Comp Course History and Recent Form. Form can be fleeting at the end of a long regular season, so this tends to be a spot on the schedule where players can build momentum off of a strong showing in their last one or two preceding starts. Comp Course History on similar short, Bermuda venues that emphasize accurate ball-striking will also be crucial in finding diamonds in the rough at TPC Southwind.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf fantasy picks and longshots for the 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship. Stats pulled across the Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Their odds of winning the event are also shown.
Tom Kim:
TPC Southwind falls under the category of short, positional courses by PGA Tour standards, and that is where Tom Kim has delivered his best work, picking up three of his first four wins at TPC Summerlin and Sedgefield CC. He continued to pay off his fit on short, positional venues last week, with another top-5 finish at the Wyndham Championship. Elite approach play is a necessity at TPC Southwind, and no one has been better than Kim in that category over the last 36 rounds. He’ll carry a streak of 11 consecutive starts in which he’s gained strokes on the field on approach.
Kim is peaking at the right time now as we head into the playoffs, with finishes of T5, T20, and 1st over his last four starts. It’s been his improvements on the greens that have made the difference of late, as Kim has been a positive putter in five of his last eight starts. He’s passed the eye test at TPC Southwind thus far in his career, with finishes of T13, T24, and T50 over his first three visits. Ranking 5th in SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds, Tom Kim passes the test in terms of both current form and course fit leading into the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Rickie Fowler:
It has been a very underrated 2026 season for Fowler, who has done enough to qualify for East Lake, if the season were to end today. Unfortunately, he cannot simply fast forward two weeks, so he still has his work cut out for him to build on his current positon of 28th in the FedEx Cup standings. It has been a season of runs for Fowler, but he’s hot at the right time now with finishes of T15, T18, and T8 over his last three starts. His best results this season have come on similar Bermuda courses, posting a stretch of three consecutive top-10 finishes earlier this season at the RBC Heritage (T8), Cadillac Championship (T9), and Truist Championship (T2).
It’s been a mixed bag of results for Fowler at TPC Southwind, but that includes three top-15 finishes over six career appearances, His best result came this time last year, where he finished T6 and ranked top-5 in SG: OTT and SG: Ball Striking. Fowler is a strong Bermuda putter with solid course history in great current form. He is leaning on the strength of his ball striking and putting at this stage of the season, which is exactly the combination I’m looking for in a FedEx St Jude Championship contender.
Alex Fitzpatrick:
I may have hitched my wagon to the wrong Wake Forest alum last week, but there is still plenty to like about Alex Fitzpatrick on a similar positional Bermuda venue this week. One week later, the field size has been cut in half, and yet Fitzpatrick’s odds have doubled. The short game has let him down in recent weeks, but he has continued to maintain the same consistency with his ball striking as he displayed en route to five top-10 finishes earlier this season.
Alex has impressed since earning full-time PGA Tour membership by winning the Zurich Classic alongside his brother; he has seven top-25 finishes over 10 PGA Tour starts this season. While making his FedEx St Jude Championship debut this week, I expect he’ll like what he sees at TPC Southwind, as he profiles as an accurate driver in elite approach form. He seems due to flip the putter soon, and when he does, the rest of his tee-to-green game looks ready to attack this short, positional venue.
Ryan Fox:
Last we saw Ryan Fox, he was hoisting the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale, putting on one of the most resilient and clutch back nine performance we’ve in recent major history. Oddsmakers seem to have forgotten about that performance just four weeks later, as Fox’s odds remain amongst the longest of any player in this field. Fox many not be the first name that comes to mind on a short and positional venue, but that didn’t hold him back at Royal Birkdale either.
The Kiwi is done celebrating his first major win and has settled back in at his home away from home in Jupiter, Florida to prepare for this playoff push. His Florida residency has prepared him well to putt on Bermuda greens, winning his first career PGA Tour win in Myrtle Beach last season. He may not seem like an ideal fit for TPC Southwind, but it’s the irons and putting that have been the strengths of Fox’s game in the closing stretch of this season. Assuming the post-Open hangover has passed, Fox looks to me like the most mis-priced player in this field.
Best of luck if you choose to roster these FedEx St Jude Championship golf DFS picks!
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