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There are 16 teams that open the 2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup on Sept. 4 in Berlin, and by Sept. 13 only two of them will be playing for gold. We went through every group stage game and every qualification-round matchup and filled out a full bracket, projecting how each team’s tournament plays out from the group stage to the final.
Based on those picks, here is how far we see each contender going, along with the team most likely to blow the bracket up.
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2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup to Reach Quarterfinals
Below are the eight teams we project to reach the quarterfinals. Bolded teams listed are Stage of Elimination best bets and odds. China’s odds to be eliminated in the quarterfinals as a best bet is +275, as an example.
The four group winners, Spain, France, Belgium and USA, go straight to the quarterfinals. The other four spots go to whoever survives the single-elimination qualification to quarterfinals, In that round on Sept. 8-9, the second- and third-place teams cross between groups.
In the Group A and B crossover, we like Germany to beat Hungary. On the other side of that crossover, Nigeria should have enough size and physicality to slow down Japan’s three-point volume in a single game.
In the Group C and D crossover, Australia gets the nod over Italy. And China should have too much size for Turkey.
2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup to Reach Semifinals
Below are the four teams we project to reach the semifinals. Bolded teams listed are Stage of Elimination best bets and odds. Spain’s odds to be eliminated in the semifinals as a best bet is +400, as an example.
Spain’s balanced attack, led by Megan DiLeo, should have enough scoring answers for an Australia team that is stretched thin. China’s frontcourt size runs into a France team with perimeter offensive threats in Gabby Williams and Dominique Malonga. Nigeria has the athletes to hang with the U.S. for short stretches, but not enough of them to finish the job. The tightest of the four is Belgium and Germany. Belgium enters as the reigning EuroBasket champion, and Emma Meesseman’s two-way play is the difference against a German team missing Satou Sabally.
2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup to Reach Final
- USA
- France
Spain gives USA a competitive first half, but Breanna Stewart, who has never lost a World Cup game, and a roster that runs Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers and Napheesa Collier off the bench is too deep for Spain to match over 40 minutes.
The other semifinal is the best matchup we have on the board. France and Belgium both enter Berlin playing their best basketball, and this one could go either way. We give France the edge. Malonga’s interior scoring paired with Williams and Marine Johannès on the perimeter gives France more ways to win than Belgium has answers for, and France’s No. 2 world ranking reflects a roster with real Olympic pedigree. In a semifinal loss, Belgium would still play for bronze.
In the final, USA’s depth and defense carry the day. A victory extends their win streak to five straight World Cup titles and a 12th overall, keeping Stewart’s unbeaten World Cup record intact.
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2026 FIBA Women’s World Cup Bracket Busters
If one team is going to blow this bracket up, it is Italy. Italy went 4-1 at the World Cup qualifying tournament, including a win over Spain, and comes into Berlin off its first EuroBasket medal since 1995. Cecilia Zandalasini is playing the best basketball of her career, and this is a roster with real momentum instead of just potential.
Another team to watch is Japan, a team built around perimeter shooting and almost no size can lose to anybody on a cold night, but it can also beat anybody when the three-pointers are falling.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
