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While the NFC South may have not been the most talented division on paper last year, it was certainly a gauntlet with the Carolina Panthers squeaking out the win in a three way tie with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons for first with a 8-9-0 record. The New Orleans Saints were not too far behind their counterparts, finishing the 2025-26 season 6-11-0.
Heading into the new year, the Saints are expected to bounce back in a big way, rivaling the Bucs at the top of the oddsboard as one of the betting favorites to win the title. Tyler Shough’s progression and an injection of talent on both sides of the ball will help them cut through the negative variance, increasing their chances of winning. In another down year for the NFC South, expect the Saints to pull away from the field and secure the division title.
2026 NFC South Odds
After letting the division title slip through their fingers last year, the Bucs find themselves back at the top of the oddsboard to win it this season. An oddity when looking at projections, aligning them with the Saints yet possessing far longer odds to win the title. Especially when factoring in the glaring red flags in the trenches, fielding one of the worst interior offensive lines in the league which will lessen the quality of Baker Mayfield’s throws while throwing on the run.
With regression continuing to loom over the Bucs, the Saints have a great opportunity to leap back to the top of the division standings and secure the title. Shough showed promise at the end of 2025, throwing for over 250 yards per game in his last four starts and five total touchdowns. Shough will also be surrounded by a far more productive group of skill players this season with Travis Etienne Jr. roaming the backfield, as well as Jordyn Tyson on the outside to help pull attention away from Chris Olave.
The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, made minimal additions to their offense, a group who is expected to continue to hover near the bottom of the board in Off DVOA. Bryce Young has given their offense minimal support with his individual production, ranking well below league average in EPA per play, CPOE, and in Bad Throw Percentage. With Young showing no signs of consistency under center, expect the Panthers to struggle to recapture last year’s success.
Speaking of poor quarterback play, the Falcons outlook looks bleak with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. holding their star studded offense back. Even with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts leading the charge, their production will be handicapped due to the low level of play under center, making it difficult for the Falcons to sustain their drives down the field. Barring a sudden turnaround at QB, the Falcons are poised to finish last in a weak division.
Best Bet: New Orleans Saints
2026 NFC South MVP Contenders, Odds
- Baker Mayfield (QB, Buccaneers)
- Tyler Shough (QB, Saints)
- Bijan Robinson (RB, Falcons)
- Bryce Young (QB, Panthers)
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Falcons)
- Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Falcons)
- Drake London (WR, Falcons)
- Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Panthers)
After a hot start to the year, Mayfield was unable to build on his momentum eventually leading to his decline down the oddsboard for the MVP award. While a majority of the blame can be pointed towards his conservative play under center (ranked 29th in Air Yards/Rec), the lack of protection he received from his offensive line also did him no favors, crashing down to 30th in Pressure to Sack Ratio. With Mayfield dealing with a high amount of Havoc in the backfield, he will be unable to string together his performances, making him a pass for the MVP award.
Shough on the other hand is in a far more favorable position to thrive, operating behind an offensive line who resides in the top-10 in True Pass Set Grade. Their ability to ward off pressure will improve the quality of Shough’s throws, resulting in eye popping numbers as the season progresses. If the Saints can win at a high enough rate to keep the spotlight on Shough, then he will steadily climb up the oddsboard for the MVP, making him an intriguing sleeper pick to win the award.
Turning our sights towards Atlanta’s skill players, the harsh reality for Robinson and London is the MVP has turned into a QB award, making the hill already too steep to climb. Especially with their own QB holding them back from being able to put up video game type numbers on a weekly basis. Whether it is Penix Jr. or Tagovailoa, expect regression to rear its ugly head with both QBs ranking near dead last in CPOE and in Bad Throw Percentage.
Best Bet: Tyler Shough
Which 2026 NFC South Team Will Reach the Playoffs?
Final Standings Prediction
- New Orleans Saints (8-9-0)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-10-0)
- Carolina Panthers (7-10-0)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-11-0)
Not only are the Saints expected to round back into competitive form on offense, but they also bring back a majority of their defense, a unit who ranked in the top-10 in Def EPA per play and in Success Rate. With both sides of the ball firing on all cylinders, the Saints will avoid playing in highly volatile contests, making it easier to pull away on the scoreboard and secure the win.
Even if the Saints do not win the division, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers regression will keep them in contention for one of the three wildcard spots in the NFC. The NFC East is also projected to just have one 9+ win team, further improving the Saints probability of playing in the postseason. Place a wager on the Saints to make the playoffs before their odds steadily decline throughout the regular season.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
