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Top TD Picks: Mike Evans , Terrance Ferguson
Touchdown Prop Predictions & Odds: NFL TD Bets for Thursday, September 10th
The Los Angeles Rams take on the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC West divisional game. It’s an overseas game at Melbourne Cricket Ground in Australia, which adds a layer of intrigue because it’s unclear how each side will be affected by the long travel. Will it hurt the offenses or defenses? Will it even matter at all?
Oddsmakers project a relatively high-scoring game, as the total is listed at 48.5 points. The Rams have a 26.5-point team total, while the 49ers are at 22.5, so each team is projected to score at least three touchdowns. That sets up an ideal game environment for touchdown bets, so let’s take a closer look at the best value for 49ers vs. Rams.
Mike Evans Touchdown Odds
Mike Evans is set to make his 49ers debut after playing 12 seasons with the Buccaneers. The future Hall of Famer has been a touchdown machine throughout his career, finding the end zone 10+ times in four of the last six seasons. Playing for an elite playcaller like Kyle Shanahan should put him in several spots to hit pay dirt.
With George Kittle returning from a torn Achilles and likely not in top form, Evans is in a spot to rack up targets in Week 1. There’s rookie wideout De’Zhaun Stribling and veteran Deebo Samuel, but Evans is the clear top target, at least for the first week of the year. I don’t want to lay -150 odds on Christian McCaffrey, so I’ll go with Evans at longer than +200 odds, which feels like the better value.
It’s worth noting that the Rams did a good job vs. CMC last season, holding him to 2.6 and 2.5 yards per carry in their two matchups. That kind of rushing inefficiency could force the Niners to the air, which would bode well for this touchdown prop. There’s also the narrative of the Niners perhaps trying to feature their new weapon in his first game. With that in mind, we’ll go with Evans to find the end zone here.
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Terrance Ferguson Touchdown Odds
Terrance Ferguson is an intriguing young player headed into his second season. Remember, the Rams used a second-round pick to select him in the 2024 NFL Draft, so they clearly like his talent. Ferguson caught 11-of-25 targets for 231 yards and three touchdowns in his rookie year, where he was sparingly used, as the Rams brought him along slowly in Sean McVay’s offense.
But that’s a different story this year. Ferguson has reportedly had a fantastic camp, where many are speculating that he could emerge as the clear-cut No. 3 target in this offense, behind Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Yes, Colby Parkinson is still there, but the Rams deploy a lot of heavy personnel, where they have two and even three tight ends on the field at times.
What I like about Ferguson is his ability to win downfield. He averaged 21 yards per reception as a rookie, including six 20+ yard catches despite limited usage. In a game that could turn into a shootout, I like taking a shot on Ferguson here, since we’re getting longer than +400 odds at the time of this article.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
