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The ATP features two 500-level events this week, both being played on the outdoor red clay surface. The BMW Open will be held in Munich, Germany while the Barcelona Open will be in (you guessed it) Barcelona, Spain. Let’s go through each tournament’s betting odds, bracket analysis and picks for this week.
Be sure to check out our daily match trends tennis page for updated odds, betting data and insights for 250 events or higher on the ATP and WTA Tour.
2026 ATP BMW Open Preview, Odds & Information
Alexander Zverev looks to defend his German throne at the BMW Open, held at the MTTC Iphitos located in Munich, Germany.
2026 ATP BMW Open Information
- Dates: Apr. 13 – Apr. 19
- Location: Munich, Germany
- Venue: MTTC Iphitos
- Surface: Clay (Red)
- Level Event: 500
- Defending Champion: Alexander Zverev
2026 ATP BMW Open Forecast
2026 ATP BMW Open Betting Odds
- Alexander Zverev +200
- Ben Shelton +800
- Joao Fonseca +900
- Luciano Darderi +1000
- Francisco Cerundolo +1200
- Alexander Bublik +1200
- Flavio Cobolli +1800
- Zizou Bergs +2000
- Denis Shapovalov +2000
- Stefanos Tsitsipas +2200
- Arthur Rinderknech +2200
- Fabian Marozsan +2500
- Miomir Kecmanovic +2800
- Marin Cilic +3000
- Alex Michelsen +3000
- Tallon Griekspoor +3500
- Gabriel Diallo +4000
- Alexander Blockx +4000
- Daniel Altmaier +5000
- Botic Van De Zandschulp +5000
- Jan-Lennard Struff +5000
- Yannick Hanfmann +5000
- Vit Kopriva +6500
- Zhizhen Zhang +6500
- Marton Fucsovics +6500
- Justin Engel +8000
2026 ATP BMW Open Bracket Analysis
Quarter 1
Zverev begins his quest to win in Munich again, winning last year’s event and is the No. 1 overall seed this season. His draw isn’t easy, but one he should handle fine as he gets Miomir Kecmanovic in Round 1. The winner of Francisco Cerundolo and Jan-Lennard Struff seems to be the biggest threat to Zverev, as either presents a solid sleeper pick for this event. Struff plays well on his home soil, but getting a clay court beast like Cerundolo in Round 1 hinders his chance of a Cinderella-run. Cerundolo is the only name to consider outside of Zverev here.
Quarter 2
Despite a solid start to the clay court season, Luciano Darderi is beginning to fall a bit in his contender status on clay courts. Yes, he has a title, but has seen earlier than expected exits in back-to-back clay court events. He is the No. 6 seed in Munich and the top name to watch in Quarter 2 besides Flavio Cobolli. The forms of both lately are something to possibly avoid, however.
The good news for them is that the quarter isn’t riddled with over-the-top competition, but still competitors such as Vit Kopriva and Zizou Bergs which makes this a bit tougher to decipher. Bergs enters losing five of six against younger opponents on clay, while Kopriva enters with a 9-3-1 ATS mark. So of the two we’d lean Kopriva as the sleeper here but of the favorites we’ll side with Cobolli.
He has won seven of eight matches in Germany entering this event, while Darderi is actually on an 0-4 SU skid against right-handed opponents. With that said, this seems like a great place to look for a dark horse pick.
Quarter 3
Alexander Bublik is the top name in this quarter with a huge opportunity to make some noise, a very winnable path to the semifinals. The names in Bublik’s draw aren’t pushovers by any means, but Bublik’s form for over a year and a half now far exceeds the names paired with him in Quarter 3. Stefanos Tsitsipas is going through a career-low cold spell, Marin Cilic isn’t the best on clay, while Tallon Griekspoor and Denis Shapovalov have gauntlets to advance through.
Bublik should be the favorite to advance and find himself as a favorite in his single match betting throughout. The best sleeper here might be Griekspoor, looking like a top player before his injury almost a month ago. Depending on his return from injury, he might be a great sleeper but there are still questions on how he performs off an injury while also dealing with Denis the Menace in Round 1. There is really no excuse for Bublik to not win this quarter, but far from a lock.
Quarter 4
Ben Shelton is the interesting name to watch in Quarter 4, the top seed in this section and actually has a favorable path to the quarterfinals. Then things become murky for the young American with solid names above such as fellow American Alex Michelsen, Alejandro Tabilo and Joao Fonseca. The last name is the biggest threat to Shelton winning the quarter, as Michelsen isn’t too dangerous on clay while Tabilo’s consistency comes and goes.
With that said, Michelsen can still win on clay while Tabilo is one of the few players to consistently win tournaments on every court surface type. So despite Shelton as the flashy pick here, it’s very much a trap despite no other name standing out as the clear threat to Shelton’s favored odds in Quarter 4. If not Shelton, look at one of the three names mentioned but Fonseca is probably the best choice with value and clay court skill.
Tournament Pick: Alexander Zverev +200
Sleeper Pick: Alexander Bublik +1200
2026 ATP Barcelona Open Preview, Odds & Information
We will have a new champion at the Barcelona Open, as last year’s winner is almost at full recovery but unable to go this week. We’ll see who can take the Barcelona title this week from the Real Club de Tenis Barcelona in Spain.
2026 ATP Barcelona Open Information
- Dates: Apr. 13 – Apr. 19
- Location: Barcelona, Spain
- Venue: Real Club de Tenis Barcelona
- Surface: Clay (Red)
- Level Event: 500
- Defending Champion: Holger Rune
2026 ATP Barcelona Open Forecast
2026 ATP Barcelona Open Betting Odds
- Carlos Alcaraz –275
- Arthur Fils +800
- Lorenzo Musetti +1600
- Alex De Minaur +1600
- Rafael Jodar +1800
- Jack Draper +1800
- Andrey Rublev +2200
- Ethan Quinn +4000
- Corentin Moutet +4000
- Cam Norrie +5000
- Karen Khachanov +5000
- Brandon Nakashima +5000
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry +5000
- Jaume Munar +5000
- Martin Landaluce +6500
- Nuno Borges +6500
- Tomas Machac +8000
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli +8000
- Lorenzo Sonego +8000
- Ignacio Buse +8000
- Mariano Navone +10000
- Sebastian Baez +10000
- Reilly Opelka +12500
- Stan Wawrinka +12500
- Otto Virtanen +15000
- Adrian Mannarino +25000
- Terence Atmane +25000
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo +25000
2026 ATP Barcelona Open Bracket Analysis
Quarter 1
The only thing that will stop Carlos Alcaraz from winning not only this quarter, but the entire tournament, is himself. Stamina might be a factor, but if Alcaraz is angry enough about his Monte Carlo loss to Jannik Sinner then he will go all out in Barcelona. Let’s not forget this is his home country and backyard event, so using his loss to Sinner as more motivation he will likely try hard to win in Spain.
Andrey Rublev is the biggest threat to his Quarter 1 path, but we’re not betting against an angry bull – especially one with odds at -275 to win an event that hasn’t even begun. Names like Tomas Machac, Sebastian Baez, Lorenzo Sonego and Pedro Martinez are actually good enough to get Carlitos on a bad day – but if Carlos is playing this event then he means business and we will not go against a guy who has won 17 of 18 clay court matches (one loss is Sinner).
Quarter 2
This is a fun quarter, highlighted by a returning Jack Draper and Alex De Minaur who sits at the top. They say its better to be lucky than good, and Marco Trungelliti gets in as a Lucky Loser. He saw an incredible run a few weeks ago, so let’s see if he can rattle off some more luck and do it again. It’s unlikely, with a solid qualifer in Hamad Medjedovic out of the gates and then De Minaur waiting above.
Draper’s Round 1 opponent is Tomas Martin Etcheverry, so it will be a tough test immediately for the Brit. If Draper can get by TME then he should be fine, but that is a very difficult opponent to face on clay when returning from an injury. Nuno Borges becomes a solid sleeper if he can get by Adrian Mannarino in Round 1 and if TME can take out Draper. When looking at Quarter 2, Demon’s path to the quarters is much easier than Draper’s because of that Round 1 matchup.
Quarter 3
A true wild card in the tournament can come from Quarter 3, with no real name as the ‘one’ to beat. Currently, Karen Khachanov and Cam Norrie are the top names but are very beatable when you consider who else lies here. The biggest threat, for sure, is Rafael Jodar who is coming off a great run by winning the Grand Prix Hassan II. He actually beat three of the four names in this event (Machac, Ugo Carabelli, Trungelliti).
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is another sleeper pick to consider here outside Khachanov and Norrie as the favorites. Still, Jodar beat him so it’s hard to look past the young Spaniard who seems like a great pick if he can get past a tough Jaume Munar in Round 1. This is the toss up quarter of the bracket so have fun with selecting a winner, but it seems like Jodar or Ugo Carabelli are great sleepers picks here – otherwise lean chalk on Norrie or Khachanov.
Quarter 4
Although Lorenzo Musetti has the No. 2 seed here, Arthur Fils is without a doubt the favorite to watch in Quarter 4 and actually has the second-highest odds to win the whole event. It’ll be tough, with Brandon Nakashima in his section. Still, Fils should win this quarter with Musetti’s form in Monte Carlo looking far from his elite clay court self. Fils has been on a rampage this season and now enters a draw in which he should be able to continue his success.
One true dark horse in this section is Ignacio Buse, with solid wins this season and poised to make a breakthrough soon. Musetti, however, is the x-factor in this bracket as his performance will truly dictate how this quarter unfolds – regardless of Fils’ form.
Tournament Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -275
Sleeper Pick: Rafael Jodar +1800
Last Week’s Tennis Tournament Picks
- Monte Carlo Q1: Carlos Alcaraz -110 ✅
- Monte Carlo Q2: Lorenzo Musetti +4000 ❌
- Monte Carlo Q3: Alexander Zverev +1400 ✅
- Monte Carlo Q4: Jannik Sinner +105 ✅
- Monte Carlo: Jannik Sinner ✅
- Linz: Ekaterina Alexandrova +335 ❌
Photo Credit: AP/Mark J. Terrill
