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The ATP finally picks back up this week with a pair of events in China, as the Hangzhou Open and the Chengdu Open are set to begin. Be sure to check out our tennis match trends page for daily odds, trends and insights on each match.
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ATP Hangzhou Open
Favorite to Win: Daniil Medvedev +125
Sleeper Pick: Dane Sweeny +4000
ATP Hangzhou Open Information
- Dates: September 23–29, 2026
- Location: Hangzhou, China
- Surface: Hard (outdoor)
- Tier: 250
- Defending Champion: Alexander Bublik
ATP Hangzhou Open Odds to Win
| Seed | Country | Player | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | +125 | |
| 2 | Andrey Rublev | +270 | |
| 3 | 🇦🇷 | Tomás Martín Etcheverry | +900 |
| 4 | 🇫🇷 | Quentin Halys | +1000 |
| 6 | 🇭🇺 | Fábián Marozsán | +1600 |
| Roman Safiullin | +1800 | ||
| 🇫🇷 | Valentin Royer | +2800 | |
| 🇫🇷 | Terence Atmane | +2800 | |
| 🇦🇺 | Rinky Hijikata | +3000 | |
| 🇺🇸 | Michael Zheng | +3000 | |
| 7 | 🇵🇹 | Jaime Faria | +3000 |
| 🇫🇷 | Kyrian Jacquet | +3500 | |
| 8 | 🇵🇱 | Kamil Majchrzak | +4000 |
| 🇦🇺 | Dane Sweeny | +4000 | |
| 🇨🇳 | Yunchaokete Bu | +5000 | |
| 🇭🇰 | Coleman Wong | +6500 | |
| 5 | 🇵🇾 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | +6500 |
| 🇯🇵 | Sho Shimabukuro | +8000 | |
| 🇨🇳 | Zhizhen Zhang | +8000 | |
| 🇦🇺 | Adam Walton | +8000 | |
| 🇮🇹 | Mattia Bellucci | +10000 | |
| 🇫🇷 | Hugo Gaston | +10000 | |
| 🇦🇺 | Aleksandar Vukic | +15000 | |
| 🇨🇳 | Jie Cui | +25000 |
ATP Hangzhou Open Draw
ATP Hangzhou Open Bracket Analysis
Quarter 1
Daniil Medvedev (1) is the clear pick — a dominant 2026 (34-16, 68%) built on hard courts (23-9, 71.9%), an Indian Wells final, and a 9-match win streak at his peak, even with a middling 2-2 mark against Top 10 foes and a shaky 5-5 close. The only seed in his path is Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (5), a clay-court player at heart (11-7) who shows real cracks on hard courts (3-4) — more vulnerable than his seeding suggests. The sleeper call is the winner of Zhang vs. Wong. Zhizhen Zhang brings home-crowd energy but a rough season (6-11, 0-3 vs Top 10), while Coleman Wong is the sturdier of the two on hard courts (8-7) with a Los Cabos semifinal and a 63.6% clip at the ATP 250 level — form that travels well into an event like this.
Quarter 2
Majchrzak is the pick as the No. 8 seed — he’s an even 3-3 against Top 10 opponents this year and already has a title on the resume (‘s-Hertogenbosch), even though the overall picture is uneven at 16-17 (9-12 on hard). Halys gets the bye but isn’t the clear favorite: his 55% record leans heavily on clay (9-3, 75%), and he’s 0-5 against the Top 10 with a modest 11-12 mark on hard. Zheng, in on a wildcard, is one sleeper to watch — 8-9 overall but sharper at the majors (5-4), with Round of 32 runs at both Wimbledon and the US Open. Safiullin is the other: his hard-court sample is thin this season, but he’s held up well in the matches he’s played there, and a 3-1 run to the Wimbledon Round of 16 shows he can hang with seeded players when he’s playing well.
Quarter 3
Etcheverry draws the bye as the No. 3 seed, and the surface split is worth flagging before anyone leans on him too heavily: his 26-22 overall mark is propped up by clay (18-10, 64.3%, including a Rio de Janeiro title), while hard courts are a shakier 8-9. He’s also winless against the Top 10 (0-4) and Top 20 (0-6) this year, so this section carries more risk than the seed number implies. Marozsán (6) doesn’t offer a cleaner path either — 20-22 overall, just 10-11 on hard, and 1-5 combined against Top 20 opposition, though three semifinal runs (Auckland, Bucharest, Mallorca) keep his floor respectable. Sweeny is the sleeper: the sample is small at 3-4 (3-3 on hard) this season, but he’s already pushed to the Round of 32 at both Brisbane and the US Open, and a 1-1 record against Top 20 players suggests he won’t be intimidated if this section opens up.
Quarter 4
Rublev is the pick off the bye as the No. 2 seed, and the numbers back it up: 29-17 (63.0%) overall, a strong 13-9 on hard, a Båstad title, and 6-4 form across his last 10 matches. The one soft spot is the ledger against elite competition — he’s winless against the Top 10 this year, so an early upset threat isn’t off the table. The sleeper is whoever comes out of Faria (7) vs. Atmane in round one, and it’s a genuinely tricky opener: Faria sits at 13-10 (56.5%) with a 6-4 hard-court mark and an even 1-1 record against Top 10 players, while Atmane counters with an impressive 11-7 showing at Masters 1000 level despite a rougher 16-21 overall season. Whichever one survives arrives with real momentum for a look at Rublev in the quarter.
ATP Hangzhou Open Picks
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ATP Chengdu Open
Favorite to Win: Botic Van De Zandschulp +650
Sleeper Pick: Denis Shapovalov +1200
ATP Chengdu Open Information
- Dates: September 23–29, 2026
- Location: Chengdu, China
- Surface: Hard (outdoor)
- Tier: 250
- Defending Champion: Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Chengdu Open Odds to Win
| Seed | Country | Player | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 🇵🇱 | Hubert Hurkacz | +425 |
| 2 | 🇪🇸 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | +550 |
| 1 | 🇲🇨 | Valentin Vacherot | +600 |
| 4 | 🇳🇱 | Botic van de Zandschulp | +650 |
| 3 | 🇨🇱 | Alejandro Tabilo | +700 |
| 7 | 🇨🇦 | Denis Shapovalov | +1200 |
| 6 | 🇵🇹 | Nuno Borges | +1200 |
| 🇳🇱 | Tallon Griekspoor | +1600 | |
| 🇨🇳 | Juncheng Shang | +1800 | |
| 🇦🇷 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | +1800 | |
| 🇺🇸 | Jenson Brooksby | +2200 | |
| 🇷🇸 | Miomir Kecmanovic | +2200 | |
| 8 | 🇦🇷 | Sebastian Baez | +2500 |
| 🇮🇹 | Lorenzo Sonego | +2800 | |
| 🇦🇺 | James Duckworth | +4000 | |
| 🇰🇿 | Alexander Shevchenko | +5000 | |
| 🇺🇸 | Aleksandar Kovacevic | +5000 | |
| 🇺🇸 | Martin Damm | +5000 | |
| 🇫🇷 | Adrian Mannarino | +5000 | |
| 🇨🇿 | Vit Kopriva | +6000 | |
| 🇦🇷 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | +8000 | |
| 🇫🇷 | Moise Kouame | +8000 | |
| 🇨🇳 | Yi Zhou | +20000 | |
| 🇨🇳 | Jia Hu | +25000 |
ATP Chengdu Open Draw
ATP Chengdu Open Bracket Analysis
Quarter 1
Valentin Vacherot’s route through Chengdu starts easy — the reigning Shanghai Masters champion gets a bye to round two, backed by a genuinely strong 2026 (19-15, 13-10 on hard courts, a Monte Carlo semifinal, 3-2 vs. Top 10). Nothing left in this section threatens him on paper. The pick still leans Hubert Hurkacz, whose big serve plays in a shallow field and who’s 6-4 in his last ten despite a so-so 17-17 season — but it’s not a confident bet, since he has to get past Alexander Shevchenko first, a live landmine at 7-7 on hard courts and 1-0 against Top 10 opposition. Sleeper: Aleksandar Kovacevic. He’s just 15-22 on the year, but two semifinals (Brisbane, Hamburg) and a 6-6 Masters 1000 mark, paired with a walk-in draw slot and a first-round qualifier, give him a softer runway than his record suggests.
Quarter 2
Alejandro Tabilo gets the bye and the pick — a solid 2026 overall (26-23, 10-9 on hard courts, a Rio final, three semifinals) outweighs a shaky 1-2 mark against Top 10 opposition that’s kept him out of the very top tier. Denis Shapovalov is the seed to watch on the other side: best hard-court player in this quarter (13-10, 56.5%) and red-hot at 6-4 in his last ten, even with an 0-4 record against Top 10 guys. Sleeper to consider is hometown wildcard Juncheng Shang — thin on matches (5-7) but flashing upside against tougher fields (2-1 at Masters 1000, a Hong Kong quarterfinal) with the crowd behind him this week.
Quarter 3
Botic van de Zandschulp is the easy pick here — his 2026 season (26-18, 59.1%) is the best résumé left in the draw, and hard courts are where he’s been most dangerous (17-9, 65.4%), backed by a strong Masters 1000 mark (9-5) and a hot 7-3 finish. His only soft spot: a 2-4 record against Top 10 players. Sebastián Báez (8) is the seed to watch elsewhere in the section — 13-8 on hard courts and a sharp 2-1 mark against Top 10 opposition, even with a rough Grand Slam ledger. Sleeper’s a toss-up between two names with modest overall numbers: Jenson Brooksby (12-21, but capable of flashes against tougher fields) and Lorenzo Sonego (11-15, 4-4 at the majors) — neither’s beaten a Top 10 player this year, but either could sneak a round or two if the seeds stumble early.
Quarter 4
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2) is the pick on pure form — 23-16 with a Mallorca title, an 8-2 closing stretch, and a strong 6-3 mark at the majors — but he’s coming off an injury and hasn’t been tested match-fit yet, so treat this one with caution. If Fokina’s fitness is a question mark, lean toward Nuno Borges (6) instead, who doubles as the sleeper: just 1-2 against Top 10 opposition, but a 26-24 season with a 7-3 finishing kick and an even 7-7 Masters 1000 mark makes him the steadier bet in a shallow section.
