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Let’s start the week off on the right track with another edition of my home run predictions. We went into the weekend on a high note after New York Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton went yard on Friday. I’ll try for another profitable night on Monday, Sep. 8.
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Monday, Sep. 8)
Juan Soto Odds For MLB HR Picks:
The first of my home run predictions focuses on one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Juan Soto is slashing .308/.462/.633 with 12 homers in 156 plate appearances since Aug. 1. This includes five dingers in his last eight games.
The Mets’ superstar goes up against Phillies’ righty Aaron Nola tonight. This is a pitcher who is allowing an 8.7% barrel rate and 1.96 HR/9 this season. The numbers are even worse against lefties like Soto, featuring a .396 wOBA and 2.76 HR/9.
On top of that, Soto has had success against Nola throughout his career, putting up a .475 xwOBA with three home runs in 41 at-bats.
So, here we have a hitter in top form, facing a homer-prone pitcher that he’s crushed in a reasonably large sample. With that in mind, let’s ride with Soto to hit his 38th long ball of the year tonight.
Ozzie Albies Odds For MLB HR Picks:
Up next is another hitter who is having a strong second half in Braves’ second baseman Ozzie Albies. The month of September has been great for Albies, as he currently carries a .417/.440/.792 slash line with two home runs in six games.
I’m intrigued by the matchup vs. Shota Imanaga, as Albies has crushed the Cubs’ southpaw in his career, posting a .653 xwOBA with one home run and four hits in six at-bats.
While Albies isn’t a prolific power hitter by any means, there’s still 20+ homer upside in that bat, so we’ll take the plunge given the batter-vs-pitcher data against Imanaga.
You also have to love the price that we’re getting here, as the longshot odds offer a nice return on investment.
Manny Machado Odds For MLB HR Picks:
For my final pick, I’m riding with Padres third baseman Manny Machado, who has 22 home runs in 607 plate appearances this season. This includes a homer on Sept. 3, so perhaps we’re catching him at the beginning of a hot streak.
I like the spot against Nick Lodolo. For one, Machado crushes lefties, putting up a .243 ISO against them (.154 ISO vs. righties). Secondly, Lodolo is giving up a 1.27 HR/9 vs. right-handed hitters (0.64 HR/9 vs lefties). Additionally, Machado has strong numbers vs. the Reds southpaw, including a .505 xwOBA with one homer in eight at-bats.
Considering these circumstances, we’ll bank on Machado going yard for No. 23 tonight.
MLB Parlay For My Home Run Predictions
Over at DraftKings, a three-leg homer parlay with Soto, Albies, and Machado generates +8540 odds. By converting that to implied probability, there’s a 1.2% chance this longshot wager cashes in.
Given the extreme volatility with homers, I recommend only wagering couch change on this longshot parlay. Always bet responsibly, and good luck with your home run predictions!
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