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Another day of home run props on Thursday, another day of getting shut out, missing on Colt Keith, Eugenio Suarez, and Salvador Perez. Home runs are way down across the league right now, so it’s been a tough time to bet on the long ball.
With the tough environment, we’re going to continue targeting longshot props. Given the current hitting environment, it doesn’t make sense to be going with chalk. Today, we’re riding with Vinnie Pasquantino, Danny Jansen, and Brenton Doyle.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-34 (-1.61 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, April 10
Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run Odds
Vinnie Pasquantino came into Thursday’s action with a .200/.302/.222 slash, zero home runs, and a 2.9% barrel rate. It’s been an abysmal start for Pasquantino, but we have to remember that he hit 32 home runs last year, so there’s a track record here. It’s only a matter of time before he starts to mash, especially at Kauffman Stadium, where the fences have been moved in, creating a more favorable environment.
What better time to target Pasquantino than at home against White Sox righty Davis Martin? Martin is allowing a 59.3% hard-hit rate this season, which ranks in the 7th percentile. In 11 career plate appearances against Martin, Pasquantino has two home runs with a 1.062 expected slugging percentage.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Pasquantino to go yard for the first time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Danny Jansen Home Run Odds
Danny Jansen is currently slashing .241/.267/.414 with one home run and a 4.8% barrel rate in 30 plate appearances. However, the former Blue Jay has shown power in the past, including 17 homers in only 301 plate appearances back in 2023. I like targeting Jansen even in a tough matchup against Tyler Glasnow.
You wouldn’t think that a fringe catcher has had success against an overpowering right-hander like Glasnow, but that’s exactly the case here. In nine career plate appearances vs. Glasnow, Jansen has two home runs with a 1.265 expected slugging percentage. That’s the kind of batter-vs-pitcher data that I can’t ignore, especially at this price.
This is a projected high-scoring game, as reflected in the 9.5-run total. Considering these circumstances, we’ll ride with Jansen to hit a home run here. Risk 0.1 units.
Brenton Doyle Home Run Odds
Brenton Doyle came into Thursday slashing .139/.205/.167 with zero home runs in 39 plate appearances. However, he was able to go yard for the first time this year, hitting a straightaway center bomb off Randy Vasquez.
I’m betting that Doyle can build off that with another homer, this time against Walker Buehler. This is a pitcher that Doyle has dominated in a small sample, going 3-for-5 with one home run and a .995 expected slugging percentage.
Doyle is a streaky hitter, so you want to hop on board when the time is right. Perhaps after homering on Thursday, this can be the start of a power binge. I’ll take my chances with 0.1 units.
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