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The cold streak continues in home run props, as we missed on Jac Caglianone yesterday, while Jose Fernandez was voided because he had the day off. We’ve got a full slate on Friday, so it’s a good time for a bounce back.
Today, we’re riding with Carlos Correa, Drake Baldwin, and Jo Adell. Each of these hitters is priced at +500 odds or longer at the time of this article.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-16 (+0.19 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, April 3
Carlos Correa Home Run Odds
Carlos Correa is off to a rock-solid start for the Astros, slashing .296/.367/.444 with a 10% strikeout rate. The veteran third baseman hit his first home run of the season in his last game. I’m betting that he’ll make it two games in a row here.
For one, it’s a hitter-friendly environment, as the Astros take on the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, which is one of the best places to hit home runs in MLB.
On top of that, it’s a matchup against lefty Jeffrey Springs. Correa registered a 122 wRC+ against southpaws last season (101 wRC+ vs. righties), while Springs allowed a 1.66 HR/9 against righties (0.76 HR/9 vs. lefties).
With the price we’re getting on Correa, he looks like the best value among Astros’ bats in what could be a high-scoring game, as reflected in the 10.5-run total. Risk 0.1 units.
Drake Baldwin Home Run Odds
Drake Baldwin is off to a blistering start this season, putting up a .286/.375/.643 slash with a 12.5% walk rate and a 9.4% strikeout rate. The second-year catcher has already homered three times while displaying excellent batted ball metrics, including a 20.0% barrel rate.
Despite this, Baldwin continues to be priced at longer than +500 odds, so we have to pounce on this value, as the market hasn’t adjusted to the fact that this is clearly a catcher with 30+ home run upside.
Up next is a matchup against Diamondbacks’ lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Last year, Baldwin put up a 129 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching, while this year, he’s at a 241 wRC+. Meanwhile, E-Rod gave up a 1.57 HR/9 against righties (1.07 HR/9 vs. lefties).
With how Baldwin is locked in at the plate, we’ll take a shot on him going yard for the fourth time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Jo Adell Home Run Odds
Jo Adell broke out last season, slashing .236/.293/.485 with 37 home runs in 573 plate appearances. So far this year, it’s been a slow start, including a .259/.310/.259 slash with zero homers.
Adell hasn’t hit a barrel just yet, but he usually hits the ball hard, as highlighted in his impressive 17.2% barrel rate.
Tonight is a tough matchup against Mariners’ righty Bryan Woo, who is an AL Cy Young contender. However, Woo can sometimes have issues with the long ball, especially on the road.
Last year, Woo had a 3.57 xFIP with a 1.29 HR/9 on the road (3.07 xFIP, 1.22 HR/9 at home). Right-handers like Adell also perform better against Woo (1.35 HR/9 allowed) compared to lefties (1.15 HR/9).
What’s even better is that Adell has had success against Woo throughout his career, including three home runs and a .588 xwOBA in 10 career plate appearances. With that in mind, we’ll take our chances on Adell snapping out of his slump with his first home run of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
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