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The cold streak continued on Friday, with Vinnie Pasquantino, Brenton Doyle, and Danny Jansen each failing to go yard. Home runs are way down across the league right now, so it’s been a tough time to bet on the long ball.
Today, we’re riding with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., and Brandon Nimmo.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-37 (-1.91 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, April 11
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently slashing .304/.429/.435 with one home run in 56 plate appearances. It’s been a slow start in terms of power, but the batted ball metrics look good (12.2% barrel rate) and the plate discipline is on point (16.1% walk rate, 8.9% strikeout rate).
Vlad is also starting to heat up at the plate, going 5-for-9 with three doubles in his last two games. Last night, Guerrero had batted balls of 112.6 MPH and 115.7 MPH, so he’s really starting to find his groove.
Up next is a tough matchup on paper against Twins righty Joe Ryan. However, Ryan is allowing a 13.4% barrel rate, which ranks in the 22nd percentile. He’s allowing a lot of hard contact. Vlad has some familiarity with Ryan, putting up a .573 expected slugging percentage in 12 career plate appearances against him.
With how Guerrero seems to be finding his power stroke, it feels like the ideal time to take him to go yard. Risk 0.1 units.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run Odds
Bobby Witt Jr. has a .283/.361/.340 slash with zero home runs in 61 plate appearances. It’s a similar situation to Vlad Jr., where Witt still looks good at the plate, but he just hasn’t gone yard yet. Witt has an 11.6% barrel rate with an 11.5% walk rate and an 18.0% strikeout rate, so he’s hitting the ball hard and maintaining strong plate discipline.
Also like Vlad Jr., Witt is showing signs of getting on a hot streak. In his last three games, he’s gone 5-for-13 with three doubles. Witt also has two batted balls of 110+ MPH in his last three games.
Up next is a matchup against White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde. This is a veteran who allowed a 1.21 HR/9 last season. In nine career plate appearances vs. Fedde, Witt has registered a .757 expected slugging percentage.
While the first two games of this series have been extremely low-scoring, Kauffman is expected to play as more of a hitter’s park this year due to the fences being moved in. We’ll take a shot on Witt hitting his first homer of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
Brandon Nimmo Home Run Odds
Brandon Nimmo has been rock-solid in his first season with the Rangers, slashing .333/.414/.471 with one home run in 58 plate appearances. Unlike Vlad Jr. and Witt Jr., Nimmo isn’t a threat for 30-35 home runs. The main appeal of targeting Nimmo tonight is the matchup against right-hander Emmet Sheehan.
The Dodgers’ right-hander has struggled so far this season, putting up a 10% barrel rate (36th percentile). What’s even better here is that Sheehan has had a tough time against lefties like Nimmo, allowing a .449 wOBA and 2.57 HR/9 against them this season.
Given the reasonable odds on Nimmo, we’ll bet on him hitting his second homer of the year tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Erin Hooley
