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It was another winless night for home run props on Friday, as we missed on Drake Baldwin, Carlos Correa, and Jo Adell.
Today, we’re riding with Ezequiel Tovar, Josh Lowe, and Angel Martinez. Each of these hitters is priced at +500 odds or longer at the time of this article.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-19 (-0.11 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, April 4
Ezequiel Tovar Home Run Odds
Ezequiel Tovar is currently slashing .300/.300/.467 with one home run in 30 plate appearances. The Rockies’ shortstop is coming off an injury-plagued season, where he was limited to only 390 plate appearances. However, this is a hitter who has displayed power in the past, as highlighted by his 26 home runs back in 2024.
Up next is a matchup at Coors Field, aka the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball. Last year, Tovar had a 118 wRC+ at home (40 wRC+ on the road), so he’s in a great spot.
While the pitching matchup is tough on paper with Jesus Luzardo, the Phillies lefty can sometimes have issues with the longball, allowing two homers in his season debut. Plus, Tovar is much better against lefties (162 wRC+ this year) than righties (95 wRC+).
It’s a projected high-scoring game with a 10.5-run total, so we’ll take our chances on Tovar here. Risk 0.1 units.
Josh Lowe Home Run Odds
Josh Lowe has only one home run in 26 plate appearances so far, but he has displayed excellent batted ball metrics, including an impressive 16.7% barrel rate.
The Angels outfielder is a left-handed bat that performs much better against righties (.178 ISO last year) than lefties (.070 ISO). Up next is a matchup against Mariners righty Emerson Hancock, who looked fantastic in his season debut after lowering his arm angle. However, we need to see more before we can confirm that he’s an entirely new pitcher.
Last season, Hancock allowed a 1.50 HR/9 overall and a .364 wOBA to lefties (.312 against righties). There was a major home run issue against left-handers, as highlighted by a 2.30 HR/9.
With that in mind, we’ll take a chance that Lowe can hit his second homer of the year in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Angel Martinez Home Run Odds
Angel Martinez has put up a .167/.318/.222 slash with zero home runs in 23 plate appearances so far. The 24-year-old second baseman homered 11 times in 484 plate appearances last season, displaying about 15+ home run power over the course of a full season.
So, why am I taking him to hit a home run here? For one, the price is right, at +600 odds at the time of this article. This is especially true when you consider that the wind is blowing out in Cleveland in this game.
On top of that, it’s a matchup against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga. The crafty veteran is a good pitcher, but he sometimes has issues with the longball, allowing a 1.93 HR/9 last season. That number is even worse against righties (2.22 HR/9).
That’s great news for Martinez, who performs much better against lefties (.442 slugging percentage last year) than righties (.318 slugging percentage).
So, here we have a lefty-masher in favorable weather conditions taking on a pitcher who has issues with the longball. Let’s take a shot on Martinez to hit his first homer. Risk 0.1 units.
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