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We had a losing day on Friday, as Hunter Goodman and Kazuma Okamoto each failed to homer. Let’s try to get back in the green on Saturday, March 28th.
Today, we’ve got 15 games on the schedule. We’re headed back to the well with a White Sox slugger, while taking our chances on a Royal and a Yankee.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 1-4 (+0.35 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Friday, Mar. 27)
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is a touted prospect with some of the best raw power in MLB. He struggled in a brief big league stint last year, slashing .157/.237/.295 with seven homers in 232 plate appearances, but he kept the strikeout rate in check (22.4%) and hit the ball hard (12.0% barrel).
This is a hitter who slugged 20 homers in 66 games across all minor league levels last season. We’ve also seen him have a strong spring, including a .304/.448/.522 slash with one homer in 10 games.
Caglianone turned heads this spring when he had a batted ball over 120 MPH, which is among the highest exit velocities ever recorded in the Statcast era. His skills were on display in the World Baseball Classic, where he homered for Italy.
The Royals’ young outfielder looks underpriced in tonight’s spot against Reynaldo Lopez, who is making his first start back from injury after being limited to only five innings last year. Risk 0.1 units.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Home Run Odds
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is in a contract year, fresh off homering 31 times in his first full season with the Yankees in 2025. While he hasn’t homered in the first two games of the season, I like the price on him here.
The reason why we’re getting long odds on a 30+ home run hitter is that it’s in a pitcher-friendly environment at Oracle Park. However, it bodes well that the wind is blowing out, which could help turn a fly ball into a home run. This is reflected in the total, which is listed at 8.5 runs (it’s usually around 7.5 in San Francisco).
It’s also good that Chisholm is much better against righties (.508 slugging percentage) than lefties (.411 slugging percentage). He’ll get one tonight in veteran Tyler Mahle. Risk 0.1 units.
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
We’re going back to the well with Munetaka Murakami after he homered for us in his big league debut. This is a hitter with elite power, but the one question is his contact rate. We don’t need to worry about that, though, because we’re betting on him to go yard.
The odds on Murakami still look appealing, so we have to take advantage now. We’re unlikely to continue getting these prices as he establishes his 40+ home run upside at the big league level.
Tonight’s matchup is against Brewers’ righty Chad Patrick, who struggled in spring training, putting up an 11.68 ERA in 12.1 innings. We’ll take a chance that Murakami homers for the second game in a row. Risk 0.1 units.
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