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We snapped our cold streak on Saturday, as Brandon Nimmo went yard off Emmet Sheehan, making it a profitable night, even though we missed on Bobby Witt Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Today, we’re riding with Gunnar Henderson, Konnor Griffin, and Corey Seager.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
Click any odds below to place a wager. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
2026 MLB HR Props Record: 4-39 (-1.46 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, April 11
Gunnar Henderson Home Run Odds
Gunnar Henderson is off to a terrific start to the season, slashing .246/.348/.614 with six home runs in 66 plate appearances. Coming into Saturday’s action, Henderson had excellent batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 13.9% barrel rate.
The Orioles’ superstar shortstop has been red-hot at the plate, homering three times in his last four games.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Giants’ right-hander Adrian Houser, who is allowing a .496 wOBA against lefties like Henderson this season.
Then you have to consider that this game is in a hitter-friendly environment at Camden Yards. When you combine each of these factors, you come away feeling like this is a good value at over +500 odds at the time of this article. Risk 0.1 units.
Konnor Griffin Home Run Odds
I wanted to target a hitter in the Pirates vs Cubs game because the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, which is why the total is set so high at 12 runs at the time of this article. While Oneil Cruz is my favorite, he’s simply too expensive. The best value on the board for Pittsburgh looks like the top prospect in baseball, none other than Konnor Griffin.
Griffin hasn’t homered yet, but he’s shown off his elite bat speed, with a maximum exit velocity at 113.2 MPH so far.
On top of favorable weather conditions, it’s a good matchup against Jameson Taillon. The veteran right-hander is allowing an 11.8% barrel rate, which ranks in the 28th percentile.
Giving up a lot of hard contact with extreme weather conditions is a bad combination. We could see the Pirates pour on runs in this one. Why not take a shot on Griffin to see if he can hit his first career home run? Risk 0.1 units.
Corey Seager Home Run Odds
Corey Seager has been relatively solid to start the year, slashing .220/.317/.460 with four home runs. The veteran shortstop already has one home run in this series against his former team, the Dodgers. I’m betting that he can do it again here. I’m willing to take Seager at short odds in this spot.
I love the matchup against Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki, who is really struggling right now. The second-year righty has allowed a 4.72 xERA and 11.1% barrel rate (31st percentile), which is a bad combination.
On top of that, Sasaki has been much worse against lefties, allowing a .415 wOBA and 2.57 HR/9.
There’s a decent chance that this will be Sasaki’s final start before he’s sent down to the minors. He’s on thin ice right now, especially off a six-run outing against the Nationals, where he gave up two homers.
We’ll bet on Seager hitting No. 5 on the season here. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Mark J. Terrill
