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It was another winless night for home run props on Saturday, as we missed on Ezequiel Tovar and Josh Lowe. Angel Martinez had the night off, so that was a push.
Today, we’re riding with Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, and Matt Chapman. Each of these hitters is priced at +400 odds or longer at the time of this article.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-21 (-0.31 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Sunday, April 5
Trevor Story Home Run Odds
Trevor Story is currently slashing .121/.121/.242 with one home run in 33 plate appearances. It’s been a rough start to the season for the veteran shortstop, but we have to remember that he hit 25 homers with a 9.8% barrel rate last season, so the power is still there.
One silver lining with the terrible start for Story is that he’s still generating hard contact, as highlighted by the 10.5% barrel rate he brought into Saturday’s action.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Padres right-hander Walker Buehler. The former Dodger had an abysmal season for the Red Sox last year, allowing a horrendous 1.79 HR/9 and 9.7% barrel rate. The home run issue was worse against righties (2.10 HR/9) than lefties (1.09 HR/9), which also bodes well for Story.
Additionally, Story has terrific numbers vs. Buehler in his career, putting up two homers with a .554 expected slugging percentage in 36 plate appearances.
It wasn’t a good Padres debut for Buehler, as he allowed three earned runs in four innings. With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Story here. Risk 0.1 units.
Ryan McMahon Home Run Odds
Ryan McMahon came into Saturday’s action with an awful .059/.238/.059 slash line with zero home runs. However, the 11.1% barrel rate is a good sign for the perennial 20+ home run hitter.
It’s always a good angle to target a left-handed hitter to homer at Yankee Stadium, due to the short porch in right field. It’s even better when they’re facing a pitcher like Chris Paddack.
The veteran righty got shelled in his season debut for the Marlins, allowing eight earned runs in four innings against the White Sox. This included home runs by Austin Hays and Miguel Vargas.
Last year, Paddack gave up a 1.99 HR/9 to lefties (1.53 HR/9 vs. righties). McMahon put up a .192 ISO against left-handers (.079 ISO vs. right-handers).
On top of that, McMahon has one homer with a .599 expected slugging percentage in 13 plate appearances against Paddack. Let’s take a shot on him to hit his first home run of the season here. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Chapman Home Run Odds
We’ll finish off Sunday’s home run props with Matt Chapman, who came into Saturday with a .194/.265/.323 slash with one home run in 34 plate appearances. Like the other struggling hitters on this list, Chapman has a respectable 9.7% barrel rate.
I’m targeting the Giants’ third baseman as a value play against Kodai Senga. While Senga looked terrific in his season debut, he’s had a tough time against Chapman throughout his career.
In seven career plate appearances vs. Senga, Chapman has two home runs with a 1.569 expected slugging percentage. I know that Chapman is having a poor start to the season, and this game is in a pitcher’s park, but remember that this is a perennial 20+ home run hitter.
With that in mind, we’ll sprinkle 0.1 units on Chapman to hit his second dinger of the year.
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