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We’ve gone cold in home run props, coming off another losing day, where we missed on Tyler Soderstrom, James Wood, and TJ Rumfield. We’ve got an extremely small slate on Thursday, so we’re going to keep it limited to two home run props today, since there are only three games to choose from.
We’re heading to Kansas City to target one of my favorite young sluggers in baseball, then finishing it off in Arizona with a young player who burst onto the scene in his big-league debut.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-15 (+0.29 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, April 2
Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds
Jac Caglianone is a highly touted prospect who slugged 11 home runs with a .357/.426/.705 slash in 129 plate appearances at Triple-A last season. He struggled as a rookie in a sample of 232 plate appearances, slashing .157/.237/.295 with seven home runs, but he still kept his strikeouts in check (22.4%) while hitting the ball hard (12.0 Barrel%).
So far this season, Caglianone has gotten off to a slow start. He came into Wednesday’s action slashing .200/.273/.300 with zero home runs in 11 plate appearances. However, there are encouraging signs that he’s about to snap out of his slump.
On Wednesday, Caglianone went 3-for-4 with a 110.1 MPH batted ball that went for a double. Seeing Caglianone barrel the ball makes me think that he’s starting to get it going at the plate.
What I like about the spot on Thursday is that it’s a day game in a newly converted hitter’s park at Kauffman Stadium, since they moved the fences in. This is reflected in the game total, which is currently 9.5 runs.
Then you consider the pitching matchup against Twins righty Taj Bradley, who allowed a 1.54 HR/9 against lefties last season. As a left-handed hitter, that bodes well for Caglianone.
Given how much raw power that Caglianone has, coupled with the hitter-friendly environment, the current price looks quite appealing. Let’s bet on Caglianone to go yard for the first time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Jose Fernandez Home Run Odds
Jose Fernandez homered twice in his MLB debut against the Tigers. While he had a quiet encore on Wednesday, going hitless in three at-bats, one of his batted balls was 101.6 MPH. We’ve also seen Fernandez show terrific bat speed at 75.8 MPH, which is a good sign for his power upside.
Initially, I had concerns about the staying power of Fernandez, since his minor league numbers look underwhelming, including 17 homers in 511 plate appearances in Double-A last season. However, with how hard he’s swinging the bat and hitting the ball, it makes sense to ride the wave here.
It’s also worth noting that Fernandez significantly bulked up in the offseason, adding 17 pounds of muscle. Perhaps this is a brand new hitter who can tap into more power.
While there’s a good chance that he’ll head back down to the minors at some point, there’s also the possibility that the D-Backs have caught lightning in a bottle. I’ll sprinkle 0.1 units to keep the good times rolling while big-league pitching adjusts to him.
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