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After a single-game slate to open up the 2026 MLB season, it’s nice to get 11 games on the schedule on Thursday, March 26th.
Home run props can be volatile, so I’m focusing on finding underpriced sluggers. Last night, we missed on Cody Bellinger to homer at +700 odds. We’ll look to bounce back with a profitable day this time around.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 0-1 (-0.05 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Thursday, Mar. 26)
Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds
Munetaka Murakami is making his big league debut against Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers on Opening Day. This is a slugger with elite raw power. Murakami hit 22 homers in only 56 games in Japan last season. He peaked with 56 homers in 612 plate appearances in his age-22 season back in 2022.
THE BAT X, which is one of the most accurate projection systems each year, has Murakami down for 31 homers this year. There’s a lot of upside in this profile.
While the strikeout concerns are warranted, the power is real. He’s the type of hitter who can go yard against any pitcher, even Misiorowski. I know that Misiorowski has elite stuff, but he did give up a 1.09 HR/9 last season. He was also much worse vs. lefties like Murakami, giving up a 1.65 HR/9 (0.54 HR/9 against righties).
Even if Misiorowski has his good stuff for this game, he’s unlikely to go more than five innings, giving Murakami a chance to get to the Brewers’ bullpen as well.
So here we have a hitter with 30+ homer power, but he’s priced at +700 odds at the time of this article. That’s the kind of longshot price that you should be targeting when wagering on home runs. I’ll risk 0.1 units on this prop.
Jorge Soler Home Run Odds
Jorge Soler is a veteran hitter coming off a down year for the Angels, where he slashed .215/.293/.387 with 12 homers in 315 plate appearances. But the 34-year-old still had good batted ball metrics last year, as highlighted by a 12.7% barrel rate and 112.7 MPH maximum exit velocity.
We’ve seen Soler have an excellent spring, where he slashed .350/.438/.700 with three homers in 17 games. There’s a chance that he can bounce back into a decent power hitter for the Angels.
Remember, this is a guy who has hit 36+ homers two times in his big league career, including 48 back in 2019. Now, I’m not saying that he’s going to get back to those levels, but it’s important to note the track record here.
At the time of this article, Soler is priced at +650 odds because of the matchup against Astros’ ace Hunter Brown. But remember, in the first game of the year, pitchers are going to see reduced workloads. That means that Soler is likely to have two at-bats against the Astros’ bullpen.
When you combine the track record with how he looked in spring, you have to like the price here on Soler. I’ll go with 0.1 units here.
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