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We had a losing day on Monday, as we missed on Jac Caglianone, Colton Cowser, and Lawrence Butler.
We’ll try to bounce back on Tuesday, going with an Astros’ corner infielder, a Nationals’ third baseman, and a Mets’ top prospect. Each of these picks has odds at +500 or longer (at the time of this article). We’re going to put only 0.1 units on each pick, with it paying at least 0.5 units, since home run markets are extremely tough.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-11 (+0.69 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, March 31
Isaac Paredes Home Run Odds
Isaac Paredes is a veteran, right-handed power hitter who loves to pull the ball, which is perfect for Daikin Park because the Crawford Boxes in left field are only 315 feet from home plate. That means that it’s easier for Paredes to hit home runs here, as it’s ideal for his skill set.
We saw that come to fruition in Paredes’ first year with the Astros last season, when he slashed .249/.354/.481 at home (.259/.349/.434 on the road). Paredes hit 11 of his 20 home runs at Daikin Park.
While he hasn’t homered yet, this feels like a good spot to do so against Brayan Bello. The Red Sox righty doesn’t miss bats (17.7 K% in 2025), so Paredes figures to have several opportunities to put the barrel on the baseball here.
Out of the Astros’ hitters, Paredes has the most appealing price for this matchup, so we’ll take a shot here. Risk 0.1 units.
Brady House Home Run Odds
Brady House only homered four times in 279 plate appearances for the Nationals last season, but he put up a .519 slugging percentage in 65 games at Triple-A, so the power is definitely there.
House is currently slashing .316/.350/.474 with one home run this season. You have to like the batted ball metrics, as he came into Monday’s action with a 25.0% barrel rate and 73.7 MPH bat speed.
That’s good news against Phillies’ righty Andrew Painter, who didn’t look like himself in the minors last year, putting up a 5.26 ERA in 118 innings. He wasn’t missing many bats in spring, either, as highlighted by an 18.6% strikeout rate.
With that in mind, this home run prop has a nice combination of a hitter who is barreling the ball at a high rate along with a pitcher with an unproven track record. Oh yeah, it’s also at a hitter’s park. With this price, House looks like an appealing wager. Risk 0.1 units.
Carson Benge Home Run Odds
Carson Benge is one of the Mets’ top prospects, who was able to win an everyday role out of spring training. After homering on Opening Day, there’s a lot of hype on Benge.
But you have to love the longshot odds here, especially with how Benge is hitting the ball hard, including a 20.0% barrel rate entering Monday’s action.
This is a hitter who slashed .317/.407/.571 with eight homers in 145 plate appearances at Double-A last season, so the power is clearly there.
It’s an enticing matchup vs. Cardinals’ right-hander Andre Pallante, who has one of the worst strikeout rates among qualifying starters at 15.5%. Pallante also had issues with the longball, with a 1.16 HR/9 on the season.
Given Benge’s pedigree and batted ball metrics, combined with the price and the matchup, this looks like a strong play. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Kevin M. Cox
