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We had another losing day on Tuesday, as we missed on Carson Benge, while Isaac Paredes and Brady House were pushes because they weren’t in the lineup.
We’ll try to get back on track on Wednesday, going with an Athletics’ outfielder, a Nationals’ slugger, and a surprise hitter on the Rockies. We’re going to put only 0.1 units on each pick, with it paying at least 0.5 units, since home run markets are extremely tough.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 3-12 (+0.59 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, April 1
Tyler Soderstrom Home Run Odds
Tyler Soderstrom is coming off a rock-solid year where he slashed .276/.346/.474 with 25 home runs in 624 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics were good, as highlighted by an 11.4% barrel rate, while he kept the strikeout rate in check at 22.6%.
It’s been a tough start to the year for Soderstrom, as he came into Tuesday’s action with a 35.3% strikeout rate and .313 slugging percentage.
It doesn’t get any easier for Soderstrom on Wednesday, as he goes up against Braves’ ace Chris Sale. The veteran lefty was dominant in his season debut, tossing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts against the Royals.
With that said, one of the ways that we can find value in home run props is by leaning into a tough pitching matchup. Remember, it’s not like these pitchers are going nine innings. You’re likely to get two plate appearances against the bullpen.
When looking through the A’s lineup, Soderstrom’s price stands out the most, as he’s priced at +700 odds at the time of this article. We’ll sprinkle on this potential 30+ home run hitter to hit his first dinger of the year here. Risk 0.1 units.
James Wood Home Run Odds
James Wood slashed .256/.350/.475 with 31 home runs in 689 plate appearances last season. This is a hitter with loud tools, including a 16.3% barrel rate and 118.0 MPH maximum exit velocity.
So far this season, Wood came into Tuesday’s action having a tough time making contact, featuring a ghastly 45.0% strikeout rate. However, he’s still hitting the ball hard, putting up a 25.0% barrel rate.
Wood has the ability to hit the ball a long way, no matter who is on the mound. Like Soderstrom, I’m going with Wood here even though it’s against NL Cy Young candidate Cristopher Sanchez.
At the time of this article, Wood was priced at +700 odds. You won’t get him at this price that many times this season, so when it happens, I can’t help but take a chance. This is a hitter who has 40+ home run upside, so we’ll ride with him to hit his second homer of the year. Risk 0.1 units.
TJ Rumfield Home Run Odds
T.J. Rumfield has exceeded expectations for the Rockies so far, coming into Tuesday’s action with a .357/.468/.643 slash and one home run. The former Yankees minor-leaguer has put up a respectable 10.0% barrel rate so far.
Rumfield homered 16 times in 587 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, so he’s got about 20-homer pop. I like taking a shot on him at nearly +900 odds at the time of this article because he’s been swinging the bat well, racking up six hits in his last two games.
The matchup against Kevin Gausman looks tough on paper, especially with the Blue Jays veteran dominating the A’s in his season debut. However, Gausman can give up hard contact, including an 8.4% barrel rate last year.
Ride with this red-hot hitter as a longshot home run bet. Risk 0.1 units.
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