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The 2026 MLB season is upon us. We’ve got a one-game slate with the New York Yankees taking on the San Francisco Giants in an interleague matchup. It’s the first game ever live-streamed on Netflix.
This is a projected low-scoring game with two of the best pitchers in baseball on the mound in Max Fried vs. Logan Webb. That’s going to make it difficult to find home run props, but we’re going to dig deep to find value here. Since there’s only one game on the schedule, we’re going to stick to only one pick for Yankees vs. Giants. Home runs are a volatile betting market, so you have to carefully pick your spots as it is. That’s even more important on a small slate.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today.
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets (Wednesday, Mar. 25)
Cody Bellinger Home Run Odds
Cody Bellinger was terrific in his first season with the Yankees, slashing .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs in 656 plate appearances. It was Bellinger’s most home runs since 2019, when he hit 47 for the Dodgers.
While Bellinger doesn’t barrel the ball at a high rate (7.5% last season), he does a good job tapping into his power by pulling fly balls at a high rate. His Pull Air% was 24.7% in 2025, which ranked 34th in all of baseball.
Even though it’s a tough matchup against Logan Webb, there are a few factors working in Bellinger’s favor here.
For one, Webb is worse against left-handed hitters (.332 wOBA allowed) compared right-handers (.274 wOBA). It also bodes well that Webb throws sinkers at 33.6% of the time, allowing a .429 xSLG last year. Why is that good? Well, Bellinger hits sinkers hard, registering a .386 xwOBA against them last year. That was the pitch where he was most effective.
But most importantly, we’re getting a nice price here. Remember, this game is projected to be low-scoring, as highlighted by the seven-run total. To that end, we don’t want to be taking chalk in a matchup like this. After all, in a pitcher-friendly environment like Oracle Park, there’s a legit chance that we don’t see a single homer in this one.
That’s why taking a 29-homer hitter at such longshot odds feels like a value. At the time of this article, Bellinger was listed at +700 odds on DraftKings, which is a 12.5% implied probability. I’ll take my chances on this one by sprinkling on the former Cub in this projected low-scoring game.
One more note: Bellinger has reverse splits. This is a left-handed hitter who put up a 180 wRC+ against lefties last season. If the Giants go to a lefty in the bullpen, Bellinger can do damage in that scenario as well.
In a game where runs could be hard to come by, ride with Bellinger to hit a home run at longshot odds. I’ll sprinkle 0.1 units on this one.
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