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Two long-time AFC West rivals expected to once again be part of the upper echelon of the AFC in the Broncos and Chiefs face off in this season-opening matchup that wraps up the NFL’s Week 1 slate.
The game marks the rapid return to action of Patrick Mahomes, who pledged all along to be under center for this game following last December’s serious knee injury. The multi-time MVP will indeed be leading the Chiefs against a Broncos team that welcomes back its own star quarterback, Bo Nix, from the ankle fracture suffered in last January’s Divisional Round Game overtime win against the Bills.
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Without further ado, let’s dive into three player props to consider for Monday Night Football action.
Broncos-Chiefs Best NFL Week 1 Player Props
- Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Completions
- Travis Kelce Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
- RJ Harvey Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over Completions
The Broncos secondary isn’t exactly one to target for efficiency-related Overs from opposing quarterbacks, but Mahomes’ talent, chemistry with his targets and past body of work versus Denver all point in that direction. Additionally, the 20.5 number isn’t inordinately high, and it’s one the legendary signal-caller has eclipsed in 96 career regular-season and postseason games. Mahomes has averaged 24.6 completions per regular-season contest in his career overall, and he begins his ninth season as a starter with a highly familiar trio of primary targets — Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce.
Mahomes also has a backfield loaded with capable pass-catching backs, beginning with marquee offseason addition Kenneth Walker III and also including rookie fifth-round pick Emmett Johnson and Brashard Smith. Then, Mahomes has completed at least 24 passes in each of his last seven meetings with the Broncos dating back to the 2022 season, meaning he’s repeatedly accomplished the feat throughout Patrick Surtain’s storied career in Denver. While Walker and co. should certainly see their fair share of work on the ground Monday night, Mahomes should have enough opportunity to put up conventional passing volume in a game that should be competitive start to finish.
Original Line Publish: 20.5
Travis Kelce Over Receiving Yards
In conjunction with backing Mahomes to complete his fair share of passes, we have this very manageable prop for Kelce, who may be heading into his NFL swan song this season. The legendary tight end has been a highly consistent producer against the Broncos throughout his career, recording a collective 138-1,663-8 line in 22 career games against Denver. That includes some successful outings against recent iterations of the Broncos’ defense, as Kelce has between 58 and 124 receiving yards in four of the last five meetings between the division rivals, with the only exception in that sample the Week 17 game last season that Chris Oladukun started following Mahomes’ injury two games prior.
Even in that throwaway late-season game, Kelce drew six targets and turned five of them into catches, his seventh consecutive game versus Denver with at least that many looks from his quarterback. That’s more than just coincidental, and actually a reflection of the elite quality of Denver’s outside coverage on receivers. Nothing has changed on that front coming into the 2026 season, meaning Kelce should remain busy Monday night, especially if Mahomes is looking to get the ball out quickly against a ferocious front seven in his first game back from multiple ligament tears. Kelce has over 40 receiving yards in 16 of those 22 career meetings with the Broncos, adding further fuel to the Over.
Original Line: 40.5
RJ Harvey Over Receiving Yards
J.K. Dobbins is back to serve as the Broncos’ No. 1 back this season, but Harvey is also set to build on his impressive rookie campaign as his veteran teammate’s complementary option. Harvey impressed as both runner and receiver in his first year, and he averaged 20.9 receiving yards per game during the regular season and 34.0 per contest during Denver’s two-game postseason run. Harvey should be due for a bump in snaps now that he has a year of experience under his belt, and considering Dobbins was limited by a soft-tissue injury in camp, that increased workload could happen right out of the gate.
If so, Harvey figures to be in good position to eclipse this prop Monday night. The Chiefs fielded a stingy unit against the run last season, particularly at home, but they were fairly generous to running backs when it came to giving up production through the air. KC gave up a 69-495-4 receiving line to running backs, with the yardage figure averaging out to 29.1 yards per contest. Harvey went 2-0 to this prop in his pair of meetings against the Chiefs as well, posting totals of 20 and 33 receiving yards, along with one receiving TD, on eight total catches.
Original Line: 15.5
Photo Credit: REUTERS
