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Top TD Picks: J.K. Dobbins , Travis Kelce
Touchdown Prop Predictions & Odds: NFL TD Bets for Broncos vs. Chiefs
We’ve got an AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs on Week 1 Monday Night Football. With J.K. Dobbins back healthy, the Broncos’ running game should look more efficient than it did down the stretch last year. On the other side, the Chiefs are likely to be more run-heavy with the addition of Kenneth Walker, especially with Patrick Mahomes coming off a torn ACL. However, we can find value in one of their pass-catchers. With that in mind, find out why I’m on J.K. Dobbins and Travis Kelce for this game.
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J.K. Dobbins Touchdown Odds
The Broncos are 2.5-point underdogs with a team total of 21.5 points, so they’re projected to score three touchdowns. However, I think they’re a bit undervalued in this game, as they’re the better team on paper than the Chiefs, especially with Patrick Mahomes playing in his first game off the torn ACL. I’m expecting the Broncos to pull off the upset in this one.
That means it could turn into a favorable game script for J.K. Dobbins. It’s a bit overlooked because he missed a chunk of time last year, but we can’t forget how efficient Dobbins has been. We’ve seen him average 4.6+ yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, including 5.0 YPC last year.
As the primary back in the red zone, Dobbins will have a chance to find the pay dirt in this one. We’re getting a reasonable price on him at +170 odds at the time of this article. Bet on Dobbins to score in this one.
Travis Kelce Touchdown Odds
Obviously, the most likely Chief to score a touchdown is Kenneth Walker, but I don’t want to pay a -125 price on that. I also want to avoid Rashee Rice, who has inflated odds at +145. With that in mind, we’re going with Travis Kelce, who quietly had a much better season last year. We saw him bump up his yards per reception from 8.5 to 11.2. He turned back the clock and was much more efficient.
This is likely going to be Kelce’s last season, so I think we’re going to see one more rock-solid year. Facing a tough Broncos defense, I like the value on Kelce to score at nearly +200 odds at the time of this article. We’ve seen Kelce only score five touchdowns last year, but he’s gotten as high as 12 scores in a season, so we’ll ride with him here.
In a game that should be low-scoring, as highlighted by a 43.5-point total, we don’t want to pay inflated prices here. To that end, Kelce is a good look at +200.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
