College Football Week 1 Line Movements: Fighting Irish Odds Increase vs. Wisconsin

Buy low and sell high, a simple rule of thumb everyone has been taught in a finance class at one point in their life. Sports betting is no different, whether it is buying a team before they steam or selling once they climb too high. Line movement also creates arb opportunities should your initial bet move too far in one direction, giving you the chance to lock in a profit before the game even kicks off.

Closing Lines for College Football Week 1

• Miami vs. Stanford (+21.5 > +24.5)
• UCLA vs. California (-3.5 > +1.5)
• Clemson vs. LSU (-11.5 > -9.5)
• Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (-17.5 > -20.5)
• SMU vs. Florida State (+2.5 > +3.5)

Miami vs. Stanford (+21.5 > +24.5)

After looking impressive for a majority of their contest against Hawai’i, Stanford started to show their cracks, relinquishing their lead in the fourth quarter. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they were able to take back the lead with a last minute touchdown before sealing the deal with a scoop and score. Even with their win, bettors were quick to back Miami, steaming the Hurricanes past the key number of 24.

Even when accounting for the Hurricanes loss of production in the trenches, the harsh reality for Stanford is they are severely outmatched at every position on the field. Especially with their own front five dealing with injuries, making it easier for Miami to collapse their pocket and create Havoc in their backfield.

UCLA vs. California (-3.5 > +1.5)

Before even taking the field, UCLA has crashed down to as low as -1.5 in their week one matchup against California, a sizable drop after opening up at +3.5. The hiring of Bob Chesney has instilled confidence in bettors he can turn the Bruins back into a competitive unit after leading James Madison to a 21-6 record in his two years with the Dukes.

Chesney will have a great opportunity to get off to a hot start in his first stint with the Bruins, facing off against a California defense who struggled to hold their opponents to early outs, ranking well below league average in Def Success Rate and in Hard Stops. This will allow the Bruins to move the ball down into scoring position at a high rate, turning their trips to the red zone into points on the board.

Clemson vs. LSU (-11.5 > -9.5)

Bettors have been hesitant to back Lane Kiffin in his debut with LSU, steaming the Tigers past the key number of -10, down to -9.5. A stunning line movement when factoring in how poor Clemson has looked since the emergence of the transfer portal, failing to re-tool their roster which has made it difficult for them to be competitive.

This year is poised to be no different, bringing back a majority of their defense who struggled to stop their opponents from flying down the field, ranking 117th in Def Explosiveness. With Sam Leavitt taking the reins as LSU’s starting quarterback, his dual threat abilities will pull Clemson’s linebackers to the middle, leaving their corners vulnerable to getting beat over the top.

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (-17.5 > -20.5)

With CJ Carr under center and continuity on both sides of the ball, Notre Dame has all the tools that are needed to make a run to the national championship. Bettors have been quick to back the Fighting Irish in their season opener against Wisconsin, betting them up to -20.5 with some sportsbooks touching the key number of -21.

With the Badgers creating disruptions at a low rate per their bottom twenty mark in Havoc, Carr will be able to operate in a clean pocket, improving the quality of his throws. Even with his star studded running backs taking their talents to the NFL, their high powered pass attack will be able to shred Wisconsin’s secondary, taking advantage of a group who resides near the bottom of the board in Def Pass EPA.

SMU vs. Florida State (+2.5 > +3.5)

Capping off week one’s jam packed slate, SMU faces off against Florida State who is fresh off of a disappointing outing against New Mexico State. The Seminoles were abysmal in the first half, struggling to pull away from the Aggies while entering the locker room with just a 10 point lead.

The public was quick to react to the Seminoles performance, racing to the window to steam the Mustangs up to -3.5. An overreaction deemed by some, betting Florida State back down to a flat three in some sportsbooks. Unless Florida State quickly rounds back into form, it’s tough to envision how they will move the ball down the field against SMU, facing off against a defense who ranks above league average in Success Rate and in Finishing Drives.

Phot Credit: REUTERS