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The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys will kick off the NFL regular season on Thursday Night Football. While the Micah Parsons trade has made bettors wary of backing Dallas, with this line rising to , there’s no guarantee the defending champs will win this one going away. With that in mind, let’s concoct a same-game parlay for Eagles vs. Cowboys, including a spicy contrarian play on quarterback Jalen Hurts.
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Commanders-Packers Odds: NFL Week 2 Spread, Moneyline, Total
Commanders vs. Packers: TNF Same-Game Parlay (+650, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jayden Daniels 50+ Rushing Yards (+107)
The Packers were a mixed bag in Week 1. They earned an excellent coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus — the fourth-best of the week — even if they allowed Jared Goff to throw for 225 yards on 31-of-39 passing. Unfortunately, the pass rush gave them very little despite the addition of Micah Parsons, but that should change with Washington on the schedule.
Washington afforded Jayden Daniels just 2.77 seconds to throw on average — the 13th-fewest of the 33 quarterbacks to take a snap — and that was against a weaker Giants pass rush. I would expect nothing to change here with Parsons coming off the edge, and that should mean Daniels is operating on his feet for most of this game.
The second-year man certainly doesn’t need a second invitation to run. He took it 11 times on the ground for 68 yards against the Giants, and dating back to Week 13 of last season he’s now rushed nine or more times in all but two of his last nine games including the playoffs. He averaged 60 yards in those contests, so I have no problem taking some longer odds and heading up to 50 yards.
Micah Parsons 1+ Sacks (+102)
While the Lions more or less held their own against this Packers pass rush last week, they still surrendered four sacks. Now, Green Bay should continue to pick the bones of the team which sat 17th in pass blocking grade last week and entered the season with several questions to answer up front.
While Parsons had an overall quiet day at the office against Detroit, he still managed to record his first sack as a Packer. If you thought that was a bad week, well, Washington rookie tackle Josh Conerly, Jr. earned the 12th-worst grade at his position in Week 1, allowing Brian Burns to come off the edge to rack up two sacks.
Parsons — arguably the best pass-rusher in the game — will step into a matchup with a rookie who just looked overmatched by a good, yet inferior defensive end. You know the rest of this story.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 37.5 Rushing Yards: (-110)
The Packers may have successfully slowed the Lions’ offense last week, but Detroit hardly had a chance to establish the run thanks to an early 10-point deficit. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs carried just 20 times, but this Commanders team is far more focused on the run than Detroit — which continues to try and move the ball on short passes.
Why wouldn’t they be? The Commanders ran it 32 times against the Giants for 220 yards — amounting to 6.9 per carry — and while Daniels was the star, rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a surprise guest at the party.
The seventh-round pick impressed in the preseason, averaging roughly four yards per carry, and he earned a 33% share of the snaps in the backfield last week only to run 10 times for 82 yards, including a 42-yard scamper.
You may say blowout, but I’m saying the Commanders clearly like this kid. We’re not asking for much here at this number, and we’re also getting a discount off of what could end up being a fluke of a first week for this Packers run defense. PFF had them graded 18th despite the counting stats looking good, and as we discussed things could have easily gone differently had Detroit been able to keep Green Bay off the board early.
Final Commanders-Packers TNF Same-Game Parlay (SGP) Prediction
As of this publication, these picks combine for (+650) SGP odds, converting to a 13.3% implied probability. Given the potential volatility with same-game parlays, I recommend only betting with pizza money if you choose to do so. Remember to always wager responsibly.
Whether you tail or fade my picks, best of luck building your same-game parlay for Commanders vs. Packers!
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