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Top TD Picks: Jake Ferguson , Isaiah Likely
Touchdown Prop Predictions & Odds: NFL TD Bets for Cowboys vs. Giants
We’ve got an NFC East showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants on Week 1 Sunday Night Football. Both teams are likely to prefer running the ball in the red zone, which is why both running backs, Javonte Williams and Cam Skattebo, are too expensive. We’ll look to find value in a pair of tight ends for each team. This game has a 48.5-point total, so it’s a projected shootout, which bodes well for touchdown props. With that in mind, find out why I’m on Jake Ferguson and Isaiah Likely for this game.
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Jake Ferguson Touchdown Odds
The Cowboys are three-point favorites with a team total of 26 points, so they’re projected to score 3-4 touchdowns. I’m expecting Dallas to control this game thanks to a significantly improved defense. New defensive coordinator Christian Parker is a rising star, coming over from the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Cowboys get a full season from stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and add a safety with a ton of potential in Caleb Downs.
If I’m right that the Cowboys improve on defense, that could mean more possessions for the offense, putting them in spots to find the end zone with short fields and potential turnovers. Javonte Williams would be my preferred choice when targeting a Cowboys’ player, but he’s too expensive at -155 odds at the time of this article.
That’s why we’re going with Jake Ferguson, who is listed at +275 odds right now. The veteran tight end scored eight touchdowns last year. If the G-Men can keep Javonte at bay in the red zone, that could result in a Ferguson touchdown reception. The price is right to take a chance on this outcome.
Isaiah Likely Touchdown Odds
Even though I think this game will be a bit lower scoring than expected, that doesn’t mean we should avoid targeting a Giants player to find the end zone. Isaiah Likely looks like a fantastic value at longer than +300 odds at the time of this article. Likely re-joins John Harbaugh with the Giants after playing for him with the Ravens. Malik Nabers is a game-time decision, which could make Likely the top target in this offense. Even if Nabers plays, he’s likely to be a bit limited.
This is a player who has shown flashes of terrific upside at times. Think back to when he put up nine catches for 111 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs back in Week 1 of the 2024 season. We’ve been waiting for Likely to have a TE1 role to himself for a couple of years now, after he had to split time with Mark Andrews. We now have that with the Giants, so it’s wheels up for Likely.
Expect Likely to immediately play a prominent role for the Giants, acting as a safety valve for Jaxson Dart against an improved Cowboys defense. As with Ferguson, the price is quite appealing to make the move here.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
